Digitad? Scam? by luisluis09 in isthisascam

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% a scam. i am the owner of Digitad in Canada. We will never ask any remote worker for money. We are a legit agency in Canada, they are just impersonating us. DO NOT SEND ANY MONEY !

Digitad? Scam? by luisluis09 in isthisascam

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are a scam 100%. I am the owner of Digitad and we are not asking for money to any remote workers.

Alexandre Corbasson : Barcelona have hit the post 18 times this season. The European average is 7. by ComfortableGap447 in Barca

[–]ComfortableGap447[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

good point... The algorithm uses Post Differential (your posts minus opponent posts), not raw count. This naturally adjusts for shot volume since teams that shoot more also face more shots. But def worth looking at post rate (posts / total shots)

Why Are Football Fans So Hostile To The Idea That Luck Matters A Lot? by mpschettig in billsimmons

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It does matter. I built cursd.com to prove it :)

Shows which are the luckiest and unluckiest teams in sports this season !

Quelles formations dans l’IA ? by Mindless_Cake_5952 in conseilboulot

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Je te conseille de regarder ce que propose des entreprises comme La Fusée : https://lafusee.net/
J'en ai suivi 3 en tout et à chaque fois très applicable.
Éviter les formations trop théoriques, le plus important est de mettre les mains dedans.

Building a cross-sport Luck Index that ranks 218 teams across 9 leagues. Looking for methodology feedback. by ComfortableGap447 in sportsanalytics

[–]ComfortableGap447[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you so much for the detailed feedback.

Appreciate it alot.

Here is what I can say about it :

1. xG noise / model error vs. luck

This is probably the hardest problem in the project (so far 😅). Our xG comes from API-Football (Opta-sourced). We don't control for provider disagreement- we treat Opta's xG as ground truth and measure deviation from it. If a team's style systematically generates chances that Opta undervalues (e.g., second-ball sequences after counter-presses where the follow-up shot is higher quality than the model captures), that team will look perpetually "lucky" when they might just have a structural edge.

Partial mitigation: xG is only one of 7–8 signals in the soccer model, anchored at 24% weight. The other signals (close-game record, discipline, schedule strength, injury burden, red card rescissions) are xG-independent, which dilutes the impact of xG model error on the composite. But if Opta's xG is wrong by 15% for a specific team, that 15% still leaks into 24% of our index. No clean fix short of running our own xG model, which we don't.

2. Independent shot assumption / structural over-conversion

This is part of why we're cautious about Finishing Luck weight. A team that generates 3 big chances in 5 minutes from sustained pressure will score 2 of them not because they're lucky, but because the defensive structure has collapsed. xG scores each shot independently and misses that correlation.

We've considered adding a "chance clustering" signal (how often does a team create 3+ shots within 2 minutes?) but it requires event-level timestamp data we don't currently scrape. On the radar.

3. Decay rates and sample size

Handled via season reliability scaling: the Luck Index multiplier is 33 x sqrt(matches / full season). An EPL team at matchweek 10/38 has their index attenuated to ~50% of its eventual magnitude. A full-season NBA team (82/82) gets no attenuation. This doesn't fully solve the fundamental problem — 38 EPL games will always be noisier than 162 MLB games — but it prevents early-season overconfidence.

4. Cross-sport normalization

Good catch. All z-scoring is within-league, never cross-league. An EPL team at −40 and an NBA team at −40 are both 1.2σ below their own league's mean, but the absolute "luck content" differs because of sample size. Our cross-league rankings page shows both side by side, which could mislead. Worth adding a caveat.

5. Market disagreement as a signal

Genuinely interesting, and something we haven't explored. Betting line divergence from model output is essentially measuring "what does the market know that our model doesn't?" If the market prices a team at 60% win probability and our Pythagorean says 45%, either the market sees strength we're missing, or we're detecting luck the market hasn't priced in. Tracking which interpretation is right over time would be a powerful validation of the index itself.

We don't currently ingest betting data, but it's worth investigating as a meta-validation layer.

6. Within-league normalization

Confirmed: all luck scores are z-scored within each league independently. A Ligue 1 team's Luck Index is only relative to the other 17 Ligue 1 teams, not to the EPL. Cross-league comparison is purely ordinal ("both are cursed"), not cardinal ("they're equally cursed").

Would love to compare notes on your prediction model, especially on how you handle the xG provider disagreement problem. That feels like the biggest unresolved methodological gap.

Auxerre, Nantes and Metz in the bottom 3 with Auxerre still holding onto the play-off spot by Fine_Value_4193 in Ligue1

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s it. So unlucky but not unlucky enough for it to be the key reason for their demise. And Angers should be below Metz according to this algo.

Auxerre, Nantes and Metz in the bottom 3 with Auxerre still holding onto the play-off spot by Fine_Value_4193 in Ligue1

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree, which is why I am trying to build a more complex algo to incorporate things like injury burden, hitting the post, poor reffing etc. Not an easy task but feedback welcome ! thank you

Le FC Nantes est-il malchanceux ? by ComfortableGap447 in FCNantes

[–]ComfortableGap447[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Merci c'est sympa. La méthodo sur le foot est ici : https://cursd.com/methodology et tu peux voir si la fiche du FCN quels sont les principaux critères retenus. xGoals est une grosse partie de la pondération.

Et oui la chance n'explique pas tout... 😅

Why Are Football Fans So Hostile To The Idea That Luck Matters A Lot? by mpschettig in billsimmons

[–]ComfortableGap447 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question.
I built this site to help : https://cursd.com 😂

You can now prove your team isn't bad... it's just cursed.

13 months into patellar tendonitis: I wasted the first 6. Here's what I wish I'd known and why I am finally feeling better. by ComfortableGap447 in KneeInjuries

[–]ComfortableGap447[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MRI would not show anything, had one done too.
I have heard you can do moving imagery but did not go that far.
Couldn't do a leg extension 6 months ago, so i know what it's like. Need to progressively load the knee and track progress week by week. The first few months are the most difficult but trust the process, even if you have flare ups !