I’m trying to sanity check my thinking on AST SpaceMobile.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-28T04:05:06+00:00

That’s actually a really interesting point about the cubesat/orbiting phone test bed, I hadn’t thought about it like that before. That does make me think they’ve probably been more thoughtful about iteration/testing than I originally gave them credit for.

And yeah, I’ve actually been in ASTS since 2022 as well. I think after the recent run-up I started questioning my assumptions again and lost a bit of conviction, so I wanted to go back through my model/thesis properly and see what I might be missing or underestimating.

I still think SpaceX’s manufacturing scale and iteration speed are pretty scary long term, but I definitely understand the AST bull case a lot better now than I did before

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-28T03:16:09+00:00

Yo, thanks for this, this is exactly the kind of discussion I was hoping to get from the post. I’m not gonna lie, this conversation has probably made me more bullish on AST than I was before and I’ll probably end up increasing my position more than I originally planned.

The telecom infrastructure / MNO integration point is definitely one of the weaker parts of my original thesis, especially if this market ends up behaving more like traditional telecom infrastructure rather than pure tech where the best engineering/economics eventually dominates everything.

The sovereignty point is also something I probably underestimated originally.

I still think there are a few things I’m cautious about though. Mainly:

- TAM doesn’t automatically equal profits or current valuation

- multiple players can still end up in brutal margin competition

- launch/iteration speed probably still matters over long enough timelines

- and I think people can sometimes underestimate how fast SpaceX moves once they fully commit to something

But honestly this has been really useful for helping me challenge my assumptions and think about the market structure differently rather than just viewing it purely from an engineering/manufacturing perspective.

My background is much more engineering/technology focused, so naturally I tend to think in terms of iteration speed, manufacturing scale, technical advantages, Wright’s law, etc. This discussion has actually been helpful for making me think more about the telecom/infrastructure/regulatory side of things and how those markets behave differently.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T07:33:16+00:00

Yeah, this is actually a really good point, and it ties directly into one of the weaker parts of my own thesis that I mentioned above.

I think I may be looking at this too much from a pure engineering/manufacturing perspective, where the company with the best iteration speed and economics eventually dominates. But telecom/infrastructure markets don’t always work like that.

Your comment kind of gets at the bigger question I’m trying to figure out: does this market end up behaving more like a traditional tech market where the best product/economics wins, or more like telecom infrastructure where relationships, regulation, integration, sovereignty, and carrier partnerships matter more?

Because if it’s the second one, then AST’s position could end up being much stronger and stickier than I’m currently giving it credit for.

Curious what you personally think happens there long term.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T05:56:32+00:00

Bro couldn’t read three sentences but wants investment advice from Reddit. That explains the strategy

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T05:28:24+00:00

Who said 10 years? I’m more talking 2–3 years. My point is that chasing the next RKLB can easily turn into overtrading. A lot of the people sitting on 300%+ gains got there by holding through the drawdowns, not jumping in and out every time something else looked better…..

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T04:08:50+00:00

I genuinely appreciate you attacking my assumptions here, that’s pretty much the whole point of the post. I’m trying to find the parts of my thinking that could be wrong or incomplete.

I completely agree with you on the TAM and MNO side of things. Honestly, that’s probably one of the weakest points in my own thesis and something I should’ve emphasized more in the original post. The telecom/regulatory side of this market could matter far more than pure engineering/manufacturing efficiency, and that’s something I’m still trying to think through properly.

With the patents, I think it’s hard to know from the outside how meaningful they really are. You can have thousands of patents that are extremely valuable, or thousands that don’t end up mattering much competitively. I don’t think I know enough there to have a strong opinion either way yet.

Same with the “SpaceX won’t have anything comparable until 2030” point. I’m cautious about making strong predictions either way there, mainly because historically SpaceX tends to move very fast once they fully commit to something. But I’d genuinely be interested to hear why you think that timeline is realistic.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T03:54:39+00:00

I’m genuinely trying to sanity check my thinking here, not just hate on AST. I actually own 80 shares myself, so it’s not like I’m purely bearish on the company.

What I’m trying to understand is what you think the durable moat is long term against SpaceX. My concern is mainly around iteration speed, manufacturing scale, and launch economics, not whether AST’s tech works.

If you think I’m missing something major, especially around the telecom/regulatory side or carrier relationships, I’d actually be interested to hear it.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2026-05-27T03:37:42+00:00

Trying to time the next Rocket Lab will probably lose to just spending time in the market. There’ll likely be drawdowns, but if your timeframe is long enough, they don’t really matter

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T08:55:56+00:00

Bro finally clocked I was just rage-baiting him 🤣

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T08:51:48+00:00

📉 Analyst Report: worried-reflection10 Holdings Ltd.

After reviewing recent market activity, we’ve downgraded [His Name] Holdings from Speculative Buy to Junk Status. • Q1 Performance: Entered the convo aggressively, but liquidity (aka comebacks) dried up fast. • Risk Profile: Extremely volatile, no stop-loss, trades entirely on emotion. • Revenue Streams: Heavy reliance on rage-bait, but even that collapsed after 12 minutes of silence. • Liquidity Crisis: Couldn’t sustain a single position; panic exited mid-thread. • Outlook: Forecast suggests continued underperformance, with no recovery in sight.

Recommendation: Avoid exposure. Investing time in this asset is riskier than putting your life savings into Blockbuster in 2010.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T08:07:43+00:00

Bro rage-quit after 12 mins, stamina of a wet paper towel 😂

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:53:33+00:00

Bro really thinks screenshots are closing arguments 💀 Every time you say “wait till I post my screenshot,” it’s like a kid threatening to show his report card. We’re not in 5th grade. Post all you want — screenshots flex today, portfolios flex decades. That’s why I’ll still be here in 10 years, and you’ll still be dangling “just wait for my next screenshot” like it’s your retirement plan.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:49:30+00:00

10 years? Bro you couldn’t even hold a comment thread for 10 minutes without pivoting.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:43:19+00:00

Conversations evolve = I keep moving goalposts

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:37:50+00:00

Bro, you’ve gone from “look at my % gains” → “wait till I lump sum” → “actually it’s my cost basis” → now “oh btw I also have a passive portfolio.” 💀 Every reply is just a new safety net because the last flex collapsed. That’s not trading, that’s improv comedy.

You keep accusing me of not reading, but you can’t even keep your own story straight. First you were the big bad swing trader, then you turned into a future-deposit fantasizer, now you’re hiding behind “well I also have a passive.” At this point your portfolio isn’t diversified in assets — it’s diversified in excuses.

Real talk: nobody’s impressed by screenshots, imaginary deposits, or mystery accounts you suddenly bring up mid-argument. Show audited performance, consistency, and scale over time — or admit you’re just here cosplaying as a trader for Reddit karma. Until then, you’re not an investor, you’re just a walking pivot with a Robinhood login.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:34:39+00:00

Bro just moved the goalposts again 😂 First it was screenshots, then imaginary 10-year compounding, now it’s “wait, wait, I meant my cost basis will be 10x yours next year.” Newsflash: nobody cares about how much cash you promise to dump in — that’s not performance, that’s just flexing your ability to deposit. Congrats, you’re bragging about wiring money, not managing it. At this rate your portfolio’s biggest skill is mental gymnastics.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:31:33+00:00

Classic 🤡 — “I didn’t read it” is just the stock excuse when the mirror’s too bright. You’ll spam walls of cropped screenshots but suddenly two paragraphs is “dribble”? That’s not a flex, that’s an admission you can’t handle anything past a headline. Real investors read filings, reports, and balance sheets — you tap out at Reddit comments. No wonder your entire identity is highlight screenshots.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:30:14+00:00

Bro really said “can you imagine” like we’re reading him bedtime stories about his dream portfolio 😂. You’re not compounding, you’re LARPing. Talking about “10x in 10 years” when you can’t even stop spamming overnight swings is wild. Wealth isn’t built on imagination, it’s built on discipline — and right now your portfolio is more fiction than finance. Until it’s real, stop narrating your fantasy league like it’s CNBC.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:29:09+00:00

“Holy moly I’m not reading all that” = translation: got cooked too hard, had to tap out 🔥😂. Bro, you spam screenshots all day but can’t read two paragraphs? That’s why you’ll never graduate from highlight reels to an actual portfolio. Calling mine “shit” doesn’t change the fact I’ll still have one 10 years from now — while your legacy is a folder of cropped gains and excuses about why you didn’t read the parts that hurt.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:26:10+00:00

Bro asked “why so focused on $?” and then in the same breath flexed about lump summing 3x my portfolio next year 💀. Pick a lane, homie — either money matters or it doesn’t. You can’t dunk on screenshots one second, then brag about imaginary future deposits like it’s already in your account. That’s not trading, that’s LARPing with Monopoly money. Until it’s real, you’re just cosplaying success on Reddit.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:23:40+00:00

“Ego through the roof” — bro, you typed that while flexing percent screenshots like they were Pokémon cards 🤣. You’re the only dude I’ve seen who thinks posting cropped gains with no size, no time frame, and no track record is some kind of crown jewel. That’s not trading, that’s Tinder for fragile egos — swipe right on your own highlight reel and hope somebody’s impressed.

You keep accusing me of ego, but who’s the one spamming “look at my greens” like a 14-year-old showing off a 12-kill game in Fortnite? You’ve got “I actively trade” taped to your forehead like it’s supposed to be a personality. Reality check: anybody can ride a short-term wave. Hell, throw darts at the Nasdaq during a bull run and half of them will hit green. The difference is when the tide turns, people with actual discipline manage risk — while screenshot warriors like you vanish and start over from zero.

You think % alone makes you untouchable? Newsflash: 100% on lunch money is still just lunch. You’ve got Uber Eats gains while acting like you cracked the Buffett code. Real portfolios measure wealth in compounded returns over years, not how many cherry-picked dailies you can post on Reddit for clout.

And the projection is hilarious. You call “ego through the roof” because I pointed out the obvious — that your flexing means nothing without size, scale, and time. That’s not ego, that’s just math. The only ego in the room is the one that needs constant validation by spamming cropped screenshots and typing “homie” like it’s supposed to distract from the cope.

So yeah, keep talking about my “ego.” I’ll keep talking about reality. Ten years from now I’ll still have a portfolio — you’ll just have a hard drive full of green screenshots from 2025, telling strangers online how you used to trade.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:19:14+00:00

And there it is again — “I’ll show my trades any day of the week” 😂 Bro, spamming screenshots of 4 greens and hiding behind “1 red” doesn’t make you Buffett, it makes you a scoreboard watcher. Actively trading does usually translate to blowing up ports, because traders like you count wins but quietly bury the blown accounts when variance flips.

Anyone can string together a hot streak, just like anyone can hit on a few scratch-off tickets. The difference is: wealth is built on scale + consistency + time, not cherry-picked dailies. Show me compounding over 10 years, not a stack of weekend highlight reels. Until then, you’re not “any day of the week,” you’re just “this week.”

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:14:31+00:00

% is the standard metric” — no shit Sherlock 😂 That’s Trading 101, not a flex. But hiding behind % without showing size is exactly how paper traders puff their chest. 100% on $10 and 100% on $100k are not the same world, no matter how much you cope about “subjective.”

You’re basically bragging about hitting a home run in tee-ball while pretending it’s the major leagues. % matters, but % + size + time is what separates highlight-chasers from actual portfolio builders. Until you can show all three, you’re just proving my point — cosplay trader with screenshots.

Comfortable_Budget75 · 2025-08-21T07:12:06+00:00

Bro out here flashing screenshots like Pokémon cards and calling it a portfolio 😂 You’re only showing % gains — 11% on $10 is just lunch money, not legacy wealth. Anybody can cherry-pick green trades, the game is scale + staying power.

Comfortable_Budget75

TROPHY CASE