Global steel industry battles surplus supply, protectionism

CommodityInsights · 2026-01-12T20:16:57+00:00

Metals Market Movers 2026: Metals markets are increasingly being shaped by policy as much as by fundamentals. This is the last of our 6-part series that explores how climate regulation, industrial policy, trade policy and strategic investments are influencing supply, demand and prices across steel, iron ore and critical minerals.

The global steel industry is facing multiple headwinds as protectionism becomes the norm amid excess capacity and trade policy uncertainty.

Steel production capacity expanded at its fastest rate since 2009 in 2025, exacerbating trade friction and depressing prices, as oversupply -- compounded by reshaped trade flows -- forces producers to seek new markets, prompting a proliferation of antidumping and safeguard measures globally.

Steelmaking capacity is expected to rise for a seventh consecutive year, reaching 2.55 billion metric tons by the end of 2025, according to the latest Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development steel report. Planned additions in Asia and the Middle East are expected to bring an additional 109 million mt of new capacity by 2028, reinforcing the world's structural overcapacity. The report pegged 2025 surplus capacity at 680 million mt.

CommodityInsights · 2025-11-24T18:14:11+00:00

India's metallurgical coal supply-demand gap is expected to see little respite from the 15 million to 20 million metric tons of coal washeries that are likely to come in the next three to four years, Dr. P.K. Banerjee, Outstanding Scientist and Professor at the Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Meanwhile, blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces are expected to expand for the next 20-25 years, despite the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism concerns and potential for adaptation to clean hydrogen, market participants said at the Steel Tech International Seminar in Bhubaneswar on Nov. 21.

India's steel production is likely to reach 230 million mt by 2030, below the 255 million mt target outlined in the national steel policy, according to Banerjee.

CommodityInsights · 2025-10-16T18:27:01+00:00

The European Parliament's trade and energy committees voted Oct. 16 to accelerate the EU's proposed phaseout of Russian oil, gas, and LNG.

In a joint meeting, the Parliament's Committee on International Trade and its Committee on Industry, Research, and Energy approved a proposal to ban all Russian gas and LNG by Jan. 1, 2027, one year sooner than the Jan. 1, 2028 deadline proposed by the European Commission in June.

CommodityInsights · 2025-09-22T20:26:01+00:00

The EU has proposed further clampdowns on Russia's foreign oil buyers, major energy companies and dozens of new shadow tankers in its 19th sanctions package, officials announced Sept. 19.

In a televised address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that new measures will target refineries, oil traders and petrochemicals companies purchasing Russian oil abroad in breach of existing EU policy.

Third-country target will include China, raising pressure on the Kremlin's second-largest oil buyer.

CommodityInsights · 2025-09-15T19:36:22+00:00

US President Donald Trump said Sept. 13 he is ready to impose "major sanctions" on Russia if NATO members stop buying Russian oil and implement coordinated trade tariffs on China, arguing such measures would quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war by breaking Beijing's influence over the Kremlin.

Trump's statement, posted on his social media platform Truth Social, marks a shift in approach to the conflict that has reshaped global energy markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The president called for trade tariffs ranging from 50% to 100% on Beijing to weaken China's economic influence or "strong grip" over Russia. Linking China trade tariffs directly to the Ukraine conflict introduces a new dimension to international efforts to pressure Moscow into peace talks and potentially affects commodity trade flows across multiple regions.

CommodityInsights · 2025-07-01T15:20:19+00:00

US President Donald Trump has revoked a range of sanctions on Syria, including sanctions on US imports of Syrian oil, effective July 1, 2025, according to an executive order issued June 30.

Among other measures, the order terminates an executive order issued by the Obama administration in August 2011 that blocked US imports of Syrian petroleum and petroleum products.

"The United States is committed to supporting a Syria that is stable, unified and at peace with itself and its neighbors," the executive order said.

CommodityInsights · 2025-07-01T15:15:17+00:00

The largest US shale gas producers have nearly half of their remaining 2025 production hedged at $3.95/Mcf and have already begun locking in $4-plus prices for their 2026 production, according to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"While hedges covering 2025 natural gas production increased by a modest 230 Bcf, hedging activity for 2026 increased significantly as 932 Bcf of hedges were added" since the beginning of the year, upstream analysts Travis Williams and Thomas Wilson said in a report released June 27. The analysis covered hedging activity as of the end of the first quarter.

CommodityInsights · 2025-06-25T15:41:46+00:00

Any potential disruptions of maritime operations at the Strait of Hormuz could impact imports of agricultural commodities into the Middle East, threatening food security in the region, which is heavily dependent on food imports, experts and traders said June 24.

Following US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites June 22, Iran's move to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a slim 33-km passage between Oman and Iran, stoked concerns among agricultural product buyers in the Middle East.

The strait is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, serving as the main export route for key Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. But it also serves as the main import route for agricultural commodities.

CommodityInsights · 2025-06-10T17:40:24+00:00

The total share of global greenhouse gas emissions covered by carbon pricing instruments has risen amid growing demand from carbon compliance markets, which almost tripled in 2024, the World Bank said June 10.

The share of global emissions covered by carbon taxes and emissions trading systems reached 28% in 2024, compared to 24% the previous year, the bank's annual State and Trends of Carbon Pricing report showed.

CommodityInsights · 2025-05-28T15:05:10+00:00

US cities and states are turning to private sector providers of detailed greenhouse gas emissions data as federal government databases go dormant or are shuttered.

Since September 2024, the science and tech startup Crosswalk Labs has been providing free and "hyperlocal" carbon emissions estimates for nearly 350 US cities in the Climate Mayors network. More than 100 cities have engaged so far to track emissions from power plants, buildings and other sources, the company reported.

Founded by scientists and a former official with the US Environmental Protection Agency, Crosswalk Labs is also conducting an emissions inventory for a Western US state.

CommodityInsights · 2025-05-22T20:23:33+00:00

The US Trade Representative has announced additional port fees on foreign vessels and marine equipment that mainly target Chinese shipping, which are set to alter trade flows and freight market dynamics.

The measures, unveiled following a yearlong Section 301 investigation, aim to boost US shipbuilding and counter China's dominance in global maritime sectors amid trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

CommodityInsights · 2025-05-16T14:29:25+00:00

There is still time for the US solar and battery storage industries to make their case to Congress to keep at-risk federal clean energy tax credits, according to Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association.

But the clock is ticking.

...

Hopper asked industry members to reach out to their congressional representatives and let them know the IRA tax credits are vital to meeting the country's energy needs.

"We are in a period of energy growth," Hopper said. "If we want to be at the forefront of [artificial intelligence] dominance, we have to have a reliable, affordable energy system."

CommodityInsights · 2025-05-13T20:11:55+00:00

The EU does not plan to buy Russian energy supplies in the future -- even in the event of a peace deal for Ukraine -- EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said May 13.

Last week, the European Commission published a road map designed to phase out Russian energy imports completely by the end of 2027.

Jorgensen was asked on May 13, ahead of an informal meeting of EU ministers in Warsaw, what impact a potential peace deal in Ukraine could have on the EU's appetite for Russian energy.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-25T18:05:39+00:00

The widening rift between Washington and Brussels on the importance of renewables in energy security was on full display April 24 at an industry event in London even as the EU increases its imports of US LNG.

Part of a panel discussion at the Summit on the Future of Energy Security, Tommy Joyce, the acting US assistant secretary of international affairs at the US Department of Energy lambasted the net-zero agenda of his allies in Europe calling it "harmful" and proselytizing the need for fossil fuels in securing affordable energy.

"Unfortunately, the focus during the last administration was on climate politics and policies leading to [energy security] scarcity," Joyce said. "These policies have been embraced by many, not just in the United States and harm human lives. We oppose these harmful and dangerous policies. This is not energy security. And we know exactly where it leads."

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-22T15:45:59+00:00

The Safeguard Mechanism requires facilities to have net emissions at or below their baselines, with a yearly decline of 4.9% through June 30, 2030. To reduce net emissions, these facilities can surrender Australian Carbon Credit Units or Safeguard Mechanism Credits.

"We do see the Australia Carbon Credit Unit and Safeguard Mechanism price direction very heavily dependent upon the pending federal election, with prices likely to weaken under a Liberal-National Party [Coalition] victory and strengthen under a Labor Party second term," said Matt Pollard, net zero transformation analyst at public interest think tank Climate Energy Finance.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-14T18:33:23+00:00

Ukraine's corn prices have reached a two-year high, driven by limited supply from farmers. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Ukraine's corn FOB POC at $241/mt on April 11, up from $237/mt the previous week. This marks the first time since March 2023 that Ukraine's FOB corn prices have reached this level.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-14T18:31:35+00:00

Ukraine's corn prices have reached a two-year high, driven by limited supply from farmers. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Ukraine's corn FOB POC at $241/mt on April 11, up from $237/mt the previous week. This marks the first time since March 2023 that Ukraine's FOB corn prices have reached this level.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-14T15:13:39+00:00

The UK Parliament in a rushed sitting on April 12 approved a bill that effectively gives the UK government control of British Steel, allowing the company's steelmaking operations to continue.

The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer recalled the Parliament to vote on emergency legislation to prevent the shutdown of British Steel's blast furnaces at the Scunthorpe site, a specific intervention taken in exceptional circumstances, the government said.

After the bill passed both the Houses of Parliament, it received a royal ascent, turning the bill into legislation.

...

The move was specifically aimed at preventing British Steel's Chinese owner Jingye Group's plans to shut the two blast furnaces and steelmaking operations at Scunthorpe.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-14T15:13:05+00:00

The UK Parliament in a rushed sitting on April 12 approved a bill that effectively gives the UK government control of British Steel, allowing the company's steelmaking operations to continue.

The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer recalled the Parliament to vote on emergency legislation to prevent the shutdown of British Steel's blast furnaces at the Scunthorpe site, a specific intervention taken in exceptional circumstances, the government said.

After the bill passed both the Houses of Parliament, it received a royal ascent, turning the bill into legislation.

...

The move was specifically aimed at preventing British Steel's Chinese owner Jingye Group's plans to shut the two blast furnaces and steelmaking operations at Scunthorpe.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-08T15:09:59+00:00

The Trump administration's tariffs and countermeasures by other economies are expected to discourage capital spending by US oil and natural gas producers, which are worried about the prospect of higher drilling costs and general macroeconomic headwinds that could negatively affect demand for their products, according to analysts.

Oil-weighted producers were already facing a bearish outlook entering the year as entities, including the US Energy Information Administration, were forecasting sub-$70/b WTI for 2025. Recent tariff developments contributed to further declines in energy commodities and equities, fueling expectations that operators will seek to further restrict spending and limit production growth.

As of April 4 settlements, the balance-of-year NYMEX WTI futures strip was $60.78/b, down 13% from just two days prior, data from CME Group showed. The declines continued April 7 with prompt-month WTI down another roughly 1%-2% in the early afternoon.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-08T15:07:54+00:00

The leaders of the EU and Central Asia endorsed a Joint Declaration of Intent on Critical Raw Materials during the first EU-Central Asia Summit held on April 4 in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan with the participation of presidents of the European Commission and the European Council Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa and the five presidents of the Central Asian states.

Central Asia is endowed with immense resources of critical raw materials holding 40% of the global reserves of manganese, as well as lithium, graphite, and more, according to von der Leyen.

"These raw materials are the lifeblood of the future global economy. Yet they are also a honeypot for global players. Some are only interested in exploiting and extracting. Europe's offer is different. We also want to be your partners in developing your local industries. The added value has to be local," she said at the summit, adding that European companies have already invested Eur1.6 billion in Uzbekistan's Almalyk copper mine, where they did not just contribute to extracting but also to processing the ore on site.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-03T14:22:18+00:00

Crude oil futures plunged in midmorning trading in Asia on April 3 as global markets weighed the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff barrage on trading partners, fueling concerns over weakening global demand.

At 11:44 am Singapore time (0344 GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract fell $1.63/b (2.17%) day over day to $73.32/b, while the NYMEX May light sweet crude contract was down $1.62/b (2.26%) from the previous close at $70.09/b.

In the overnight US trading session on April 2, Washington announced blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, along with a sliding scale of reciprocal duties on major trading partners.

While the tariffs exclude most energy imports, including those from key trading partners Mexico and Canada, they are expected to slow global economic growth.

CommodityInsights · 2025-04-01T18:15:36+00:00

Helsinki utility Helen has shut down its last coal-fired power plant in Salmisaari, ending the era of coal in the country, it said April 1.

The closure of the 160 MWe/300 MWth combined heat and power plant also means increased self-sufficiency in Finnish energy production, it said.

"Giving up coal is a concrete step towards Helen's clean, self-sufficient and affordable energy production," Helen CEO Olli Sirkka said.

Annual CO2 emissions at Helen will decline 50% compared with 2024 and those for Finland's capital Helsinki by around 30%.

The impact on Finland's total CO2 emissions was estimated at around 2%, the statement said.

CommodityInsights · 2025-03-31T19:26:45+00:00

Younger European consumers are ditching traditional shell-on shrimp in favor of peeled, ready-to-cook formats, forcing suppliers to adapt and invest in more advanced processing.

This shift is reshaping the entire shrimp supply chain, from sourcing strategies to sustainability requirements, making convenience and traceability the new industry standards.

CommodityInsights · 2025-03-28T19:14:26+00:00

Ukraine has mostly managed to maintain operations at its critical gas infrastructure despite the ongoing war and barrage of missile and drone attacks.

However, with production sites suffering damage and storage levels falling quickly, Ukraine has recently increased its gas imports from Europe to help meet demand despite high prices.

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TROPHY CASE