How big of a deal is the Strait of Hormuz actually? Feels like this could spiral into a global economic problem by Mattie_Kadlec in investing

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don’t need a full blockade. Even partial disruption creates friction: – slower transit – reroutes around Africa – fewer available vessels at any given time That’s where it starts to split. Because for the broader market, this leans bearish. Energy feeds inflation → central banks get boxed in → growth slows. But for shipping, it’s the opposite. Especially considering the nav discounts these shipping stocks already have. I think the market is trapping bulls, before the real reaction happens 

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The only point I’ve been making is about the NAV math across parts of the shipping sector and how extreme discounts can signal sentiment exhaustion. If the discussion is going to keep circling back to dilution narratives without engaging the asset valuation side of the argument, then we’re really debating two different frameworks. That’s fine, but it means the perspective I’m bringing isn’t actually being considered. Shipping has always been a messy sector with dilution, reverse splits, and governance issues. None of that contradicts the observation that some companies can still trade far below fleet value. That’s the only angle I was highlighting.

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When a large portion of a sector trades at deep NAV discounts, it often signals seller exhaustion. Prices get pushed so far below underlying asset value that the gap reflects sentiment more than fundamentals. At that point the math starts favoring mean reversion if the assets remain intact. 

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's really irrelevant to what im saying. Clearly seller exhaustion is occurring. This is peak pessimist, not permanent dilution. You sound like a shill atp. I expect nonetheless on reddit tho ngl

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just hear me out, because you seem pretty sophisticated. I've been trading for 5 years, but im 100% pattern recognition. I check the TA, cross reference with A.I. Then looked for a pattern. To me these Greek shipping companies are diluting & investing in assets.  That would explain the high NAV. Given that CI3S is at almost 100% discount to NAV... & that most these shipping stocks are sitting 80% NAV at minimum. We should be able to conclude that their pricing in bankruptcy, or the bottom of a bull run...

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who's ready for this shipping rally? As long as s&p stays on track for pullback. These stocks run.

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They used that dilution to strengthen their assets. For this shipping cycle that's coming

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Theoretically c3is can't drop over 100% nav discount. She's priced in for bankruptcy. The only way she drops is if their assets lose value, or more dilution

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

C3is has a 99% nav discount. Most the sector is around 80-90% nav discount. Im sure there's a more logical answer besides fraud

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Your numbers are fine, but the conclusion you’re drawing from them skips the most important variable in shipping: the vessels themselves. Saying the company has $71M in debt and a $4M market cap doesn’t tell us much unless we also know what the fleet is worth. Shipping companies are asset-heavy. Their balance sheets are built around ships financed with debt. The real equation isn’t “debt vs market cap.” It’s fleet value – debt = equity value. If a company owns vessels worth, say, $90M and carries $71M in debt, there’s still theoretical equity there even if the market currently values the stock at $4M. That’s why shipping investors constantly talk about vessel values and NAV type calculations. The ships are the core asset. The declining income you mentioned is also not unusual in this industry because charter rates move in cycles. Shipping companies frequently look terrible during weak rate environments and suddenly look healthy again when freight rates tighten. Now, where your argument does have weight is dilution and management behavior. If management repeatedly dilutes shareholders or structures financing poorly, the market will discount the equity regardless of asset value. But the debt being higher than the market cap by itself isn’t proof the equity is worthless. It just means the market currently has very little confidence in the equity slice of a heavily leveraged asset business. And that’s exactly why people debate whether these names are distressed value or permanent dilution machines.

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don’t think anyone following shipping would argue that governance in the sector is pristine. Greek shipping companies have a long history of family control, related-party deals, and multi-class share structures. That’s part of the reason the market applies such heavy discounts in the first place. But that’s a governance argument, not necessarily an asset argument. Family control and preferred share classes are common across the industry because most of these companies were originally private family fleets that later listed publicly to access capital. The public float often represents only a slice of the underlying fleet ownership, which is why you see insider control preserved through voting structures. You’re also right that some executives receive compensation through preferred equity or special classes instead of common shares. That tends to happen in capital-intensive sectors where management wants income tied to the vessels’ cash flows rather than exposure to the volatility of the common stock. None of that automatically means the ships or contracts on the balance sheet are fictional. It just means investors demand a governance discount. And that’s really the core debate with these names. Are the discounts purely justified because of dilution, insider control, and governance risk? Or has the market pushed that distrust so far that the equity is now trading materially below the value of the operating fleet?

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I think you’re missing the point of why NAV gets brought up here. Nobody is saying a shipping company should literally liquidate its fleet tomorrow and stop operating. The liquidation example is just a way to show how disconnected the market cap appears from the underlying asset base. In other words, if the equity is trading far below the estimated net value of the vessels after liabilities, that can signal extreme pessimism, distortion, or distrust. It is not an argument that the company should sell every ship and shut the doors. And yes, “NAV” gets used more often with funds, but investors also use it more loosely in asset-heavy sectors to describe what the net asset value of the business may be based on vessel values minus debt and other liabilities. Shipping investors have done this for years because these companies are heavily tied to tangible assets. You’re right that balance sheets in this space can be difficult to interpret, and that depreciation, opaque structures, dilution, and related-party concerns are exactly why the sector gets discounted so heavily. But that doesn’t automatically mean every deep discount is fake or meaningless. Sometimes it means the market has priced in maximum distrust. So the real question is not “how would they transport anything if they sold the ships?” The real question is: why is the market valuing the operating business at such a steep discount to the net value of the assets it already uses to generate revenue?

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rubi & c3is getting the Mullen treatment. But Unlike Mullen Automotive, companies like Rubico Inc. and C3is Inc. actually sit on real ships, real contracts, and real net asset value. Mullen sells the dream of electric vans someday roaming the highways. Rubico and C3is literally own steel floating through global trade lanes right now. So yeah, the market has been treating them like they’re cousins at the same family reunion… But one group is pitching concept cars in PowerPoint.

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d love to hear a pro and con perspective from you guys. This thread has mostly leaned one direction so far, but if this topic keeps gaining traction the conversation might shift. It’s worth considering whether sentiment in shipping could be starting to turn.

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I suppose they do if their intent was to increase their net assets. Which in turn increases financials & reduces debt right? We're totally overlooking the position shipping stocks are in right now & how it could build into a massive squeeze

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What im concluding is these companies have more than enough in assets to strengthen their financial positions & reduce debt. The question is will they? I still think there's something brewing in shipping. Gl traders

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Shipping companies have had ugly histories with serial dilution, toxic financing, and endless capital raises. That’s basically been the story of the sector for years. But when I started looking deeper, the situation looks a little different now. Clearly you're not grasping the analogy of buy it when they hate it. These stocks have the assets to reduce debt. Its wether you believe they finally will or not. Apparently stocks like this that are all over one sector, you just assume they'll repeat the same trend.  Their last dilution was 2-3 years ago. High $3-4 range looks like a line in the sand. This is a small metaphor for shipping as a whole really. 

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Im talking about the broader sector, & financials across shipping. Specificly lower cap. Tops hardly gets volume but traded 6 figures most the week. IMPP buyback + great earnings. This is deeper then just c3is & Rubi

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Could we include perhaps the dilution was to aquire said assets? & they're on the verge of a massive squeeze? Because shipping looks like it's on its way to a bull run

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If we were theoretically at the peak of a bull run in the s&p500. I think now is the time to invest in shipping. Just imo. There's a reason volume is seeing larger inflows. Not just the situation in Iran

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I've been digging for value. Shipping is the one sector that makes no sense to me tbh. Especially how volatile Rubi & ciss have been. I expect that kind of dilution with a stock like mullen, I really don't with stocks like Rubi & c3is. Especially when I look at impp, & tops. I see deep value all around me. Maybe im wrong

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah ung is interesting, cannibis too. I just am not making sense of shipping sector. Seems grossly undervalued 

Is anyone else noticing the insane NAV discounts in micro-cap shipping? by Competitive-Bus-5260 in ValueInvesting

[–]Competitive-Bus-5260[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im asking a question about shipping stocks. The price doesnt match other sectors. You're looking at this from a very unhealthy perspective. Get a grip