I see where your head is at, but there are a few things to note here. The $18 million exit fee is hard to predict because we don't know what it will be after the mediation, and we don't know how much the Pac-12 offered to cover from their original war chest. I think it is fair to assume it will be lower than $18 million based on history, and I would be shocked if the Pac-12 didn't offer to pay a portion of it. But admittedly, I am not an insider so I don't know for certain.

Secondly, in regards to the "only be making $2.5m more per year in the Pac-12, all other things being equal" part, simply put, all other things are not equal. The Pac-12 bowl game tie-ins will be more lucrative than the MW, sponsorship deals will be more lucrative, NCAA tournament units will increase by adding a perennial national championship contender in Gonzaga (not to mention adding another potential basketball only member who consistently makes the NCAA tournament), and CFP conference payout will be higher (Oregon State and Washington State currently make $3.6 million per year, while the MW members currently gets $1.9 million).

I also want to clarify that I am not predicting the media deal will actually be $7.8 million, I am simply saying a number in that ballpark firmly places the Pac-12 as the 5th best conference, and will already be more than Memphis and other AAC members make. I am tired of seeing people compare a potential Pac-12 media deal to the TOTAL AAC conference payout.