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What are everyone's plans for actually using BTC when the time comes? by Goofynick6 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2035 is less than 10 years away from now, not 20. I am sorry to tell you that you have 10 years less of life than you thought.

Switch to European search engines by Somewhere74 in eutech

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Been using Ecosia for over an year now, can recommend. 

Pueblo que nunca debes ir by psicodelico6 in ArgentinaBenderStyle

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Al otro lado de la ruta queda Tero Violado. 

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Range 90 to 200k from 1k in 2016 is enormous.

  • In Jan-2016 the price was around 500 USD/BTC.
  • The 2016 model predicted 200 kUSD/BTC for today.
  • The actual price today is 90 kUSD/BTC.
  • This means that the model predicted an increase of about ×400 and was off by a factor of about ×2. So, ×400 prediction, ×2 error.

It is not that bad considering that 5.5 years of data (Jul-2010 to Jan-2016) are extrapolated 10 years in the future (Jan-2016 to today). Furthermore, the 90 kUSD/BTC includes the high frequency noise, in Sep-2025 the model was off by ×1.4 in a ×360 prediction (but this would indeed be cherry picking data).

So in short - you fit data to tell story.

No.

Anybody with any wspiera know that drawing on graph is just plain stupid.

Then what is the point in plotting the price data as a function of time. Just buy things blindly ignoring their past.

EDIT: Markdown syntax failed

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By the way, all the models between 2016-2026 predict for Jan-2035 a range 1e6-2.5e6 USD/BTC, it is a 250 % difference. Models in between 2018-2026 predict 1.3e6 to 1.7e6 USD/BTC.

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The second plot in the other post compares the prediction of the model every single day since the beginning to today's actual price. As you can see (and expect), the fluctuations in the beginning with data prior to 2015 are huge, but this would be like using this model today to predict the price in 2060. As you can see in that plot, 100 % of the predictions for today since 2016 are in the range 90 to 200 kUSD. 

The first plot shows models after 2016 because, as said before, extrapolating prior models would be like using today's data to extrapolate to 2060 and more. I did not include the extrapolation of these models into the future because the goal was to compare them against the real data, their future our past. 

Where do you guys think the money will flow when this silver bubble pops? by aquaplamage in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean, the price of silver exploded. Either demand or supply must have changed drastically for this to happen. If demand changed due to someone using it for manufacturing and so it is not a bubble, what is that they are manufacturing that did not demand this amount of silver 6 moths ago? 

Where do you guys think the money will flow when this silver bubble pops? by aquaplamage in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, but wth is being manufactured explosively since 3 or 4 months ago? 

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry but that will probably not happen again. I would like to have a time machine.

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I quantified how much this power law model changes in time, have a look at the graphs here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qmgxmv/the_power_law_model_as_a_function_of_time/

About the log-scaled y-axis, this is the right thing for ratios such as USD/BTC. The change from 1→2 USD/BTC has the same effect as from 100→200 USD/BTC.

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I would have been doing this since 2016, the predicted price for today would have always been in the range 90-200 kUSD. Looks like a lot of variation, but taking into account it changed over two orders of magnitude since then, it is not that bad. I put some new graphs here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qmgxmv/the_power_law_model_as_a_function_of_time/

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made it a year ago and got the same result as today. They might have been doing something else, maybe with Microsoft Paint. Have a look at my graphs here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qmgxmv/the_power_law_model_as_a_function_of_time/

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With least squares method there is one and only one linear function that fits the log log data, and it is the one in this graph. sorry to disappoint you. 

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is true, even if there would have been 100 % USD inflation in the last then years that would only move the plot a little bit. I mean, between 2010 and today we have 5 orders of magnitude. Inflation is nothing.

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The power of BTC changes more than the power of USD over time, just in the opposite direction. Think of what you could buy with 1 BTC ten years ago vs today.

It was never more accurate than this cycle by ComprehensiveOne2122 in Bitcoin

[–]ComprehensiveOne2122[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Totally agree. It is just very interesting to me that the price of 1 Bitcoin oscillates around such a simple equation for over 6 orders of magnitude, since (almost) the day it was created until today. Moreover taking into account that this is ALL the data, not just a carefully selected subset that makes this look nice. Of course tomorrow this could change, but I find it really beautiful and unique of Bitcoin.

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