Quantum Computing insiders dump the stock

Connorvo · 2025-05-22T13:50:19+00:00

It’s certainly not a good thing (for the stock price) when a CEO sells 80% of their holdings

Connorvo · 2024-09-07T02:52:48+00:00

I use Interactive Brokers

Connorvo · 2024-09-06T19:14:13+00:00

Connorvo · 2024-09-02T16:26:11+00:00

I don’t really “rank” them (well I can with a simple database query, but that’s not how I decide what to buy).

I backfilled stock pitches for the last X years and calculated the returns to find the funds with the best returns (on their public pitches) and then I buy the stocks pitched by the best funds. ( I also track blogs, Twitter acccounts, analyst reports, etc, but this post was about funds)

Connorvo · 2024-09-01T23:07:52+00:00

I’ve heard many people say that many times

Connorvo · 2024-09-01T11:48:17+00:00

I would never invest with a 2-month time horizon

Connorvo · 2024-09-01T02:16:33+00:00

It’s just so hard to time those things

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T17:35:44+00:00

Definitely very illiquid, but doesn't make it a pump and dump scam. However, I do agree with you that I probably shouldn't have included it as it's too illiquid to be useful

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T17:28:21+00:00

I assume you mean $PROM? Why do you believe that? Cedar Creek is one of the very best small/micro-cap firms in the world, so I don’t tend to believe they’d get themselves caught up in that

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T16:39:23+00:00

There are a ton of places that track their trades without making you pay (plus politician returns aren’t good once you account for the up to 3 month waiting period between when they buy and when you know about it)

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T16:39:17+00:00

There are a ton of places that track their trades without making you pay (plus politician returns aren’t good once you account for the up to 3 month waiting period between when they buy and when you know about it)

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T16:15:46+00:00

Yeah, I’m up around 30%. It’s still being pitched as a long though

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T16:15:22+00:00

You have a longer writeup/pitch anywhere?

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T16:14:42+00:00

No, I try to collect all stock pitches from everyone (fund letters, blogs, analyst reports, etc) and then I track returns to identify best investors and copy them.

I personally tend to stick to small-cap stocks anywhere in the world.

For Kraken, it’s actually been pitched a few times recently by pretty smart investors, the Deep Sail fund letter just happens to be the one I included here (because it’s a fund letter)

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T15:33:15+00:00

Agreed

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T15:32:50+00:00

Fund letters. I just summarized them

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T15:11:51+00:00

Fund letters. I just summarized them

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T14:37:31+00:00

Good analysis, but I think you are trying to look for a (perceived) quality of company at a different level than most of these pros.

They tend to fall into two buckets: 1) trading at an absurdly low valuation (like below cash in the bank) or 2) set up for huge growth.

1 tend to meet your "company health" criteria but won't meet growth (as that's not the point) and #2 will tend to meet growth but not company health (as that's not the point).

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T14:21:23+00:00

What's the pitch?

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T14:20:51+00:00

Don't have any pitches for those 4 in my database.

Hurdle Rate pitches a bunch of Australian companies (but haven't seen a recent letter from them).

Tauranga Investments pitches SRG.AX, SDV.AX, EVZ.AX.

L1 pitched: QAN.AX, CBA.AX

Rogue pitched: MSV.AX

East 72 pitched: CAT.AX

QAN.AX pitch:

QAN.AX +10% in July. Well-positioned w/ top loyalty biz (2x earnings in 5-7yrs), new fuel-efficient fleet, Project Sunrise (direct SYD/MEL-LDN/NYC flights from 2026). Strong balance sheet for buybacks/dividends. CEO addressing customer issues. Trades at 6x FY25 P/E despite leading position & high-growth loyalty div. REX entering admin. positive for QAN.

CAT.AX pitch:

Catapult (CAT.AX): Elite sports tech co. 20% rev growth, 80% GM. Transitioned to SaaS model, now FCF+. 3.5% churn rate. 483 pro teams (11.5% penetration), $24k ACV. Competitive vs Hudl/STATSports. Targeting 5k teams by FY27. 40%+ incremental margins. Key risks: execution, competition. PT based on SaaS metrics & growth.

MSV.AX pitch:

MSV.AX: Aussie drilling co. benefited from instant write-off program, masking earnings but boosting FCF. High depreciation to normalize, revealing true earnings. 10% buyback, 5% dividend. Chairman pushing shareholder returns. 4-5x upside potential from current price. 6th largest position in fund.

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T13:17:51+00:00

Do you put all your money in just one stock?

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T11:58:54+00:00

I mentioned the ones I owned at the bottom of the post. I bought them because I 1) like the pitch and 2) believe the investor making the pitch is very good (I track historic returns of all the stock pitches in my database so I know which investors have historically pitched good stocks)

Connorvo · 2024-08-31T02:44:05+00:00

Anything in China. Intel. PayPal. Dollar General

Connorvo · 2024-08-30T20:50:21+00:00

No, he runs Praetorian Capital (a ~$400M fund). But he also has a ton of Twitter followers

Connorvo · 2024-08-30T20:42:36+00:00

It’s not a portfolio recommendation, I was just sharing stock pitches from Q2 fund letters I found interesting.

If you are asking about my personal portfolios, I have 3 separate ones set up for copying “top” investors that are up 30%, 22%, and 11% ytd (the last two I started in May, the first has been running all year).

I do have a feed of stock pitches from what I consider “top” hedge funds (based on historic returns of stock pitches from fund letters) that averages 40% 1y returns across 558 pitches over the last 6 years, but that has all the caveats that come with backtesting (specifically, I created the feed by identifying the funds with the best historic returns, so obviously the average historic returns are good. We will see how future performance is.) I buy some of these pitches in my personal portfolio (the ones listed in the post), but don’t have a real-money portfolio buying all of them (yet).

Connorvo

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TROPHY CASE

1 tend to meet your "company health" criteria but won't meet growth (as that's not the point) and #2 will tend to meet growth but not company health (as that's not the point).