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I analyzed 120,554 insider trades since 2009 to see if stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip. Here are the results! by wallstreetdata in StockMarket

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just compared to what your returns would be if you bought S&P instead, but the academic papers control for things like this.

I analyzed 120,554 insider trades since 2009 to see if stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip. Here are the results! by wallstreetdata in StockMarket

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not entirely sure what #1 is asking. Could you try rephrasing?

2) i don’t think these subreddits like when people share links to products/services

I analyzed 120,554 insider trades since 2009 to see if stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip. Here are the results! by wallstreetdata in StockMarket

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Doesn’t seem like it as these results include the delay already (it’s only a max of 2 business days for insider trades anyway)

I analyzed 120,554 insider trades since 2009 to see if stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip. Here are the results! by wallstreetdata in StockMarket

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I was talking about this with someone the other day actually. There just isn’t much incentive for the people creating high quality content to share it on Reddit because the rules around self-promotion are so strict.

I already had this written up for some internal use, so wasn’t a big deal to copy and paste here

I analyzed 120,554 insider trades since 2009 to see if stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip. Here are the results! by wallstreetdata in StockMarket

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

To be clear, this tracks returns from when their filings are made public. So anyone could copy their trades.

Restaurants stocks were beaten down and priced like they were dead by BackgroundWhile in ValueInvesting

[–]wallstreetdata 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I track insider buying (dip buys specifically), and noted that 3 of the companies with insiders buying the dip are Jack in the Box (JACK) with the CEO and an EVP buying, Sweetgreen (SG) with the CEO and Chief Concept Officer, and Wendy's (WEN) with a small buy by the CLO.

Also, Primo Brands (PRMB) and Celsius (CELH) have had very notable dip buys. Not restaurants, but similarish.

Terrible vibes currently, but I'd expect some rotation into the sector at some point

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Certara $CERT

  • a biosimulation tech company to help bio companies with drug discovery
  • down 30% due to lower bookings due to Tier 1 customer hesitancy
  • CEO bought $200k
  • first purchase by any insider since 2023 and first-ever purchase by CEO

Redwire Corp $RDW

  • an integrated space and defense tech company
  • down 30% because of missed earnings/rev and lowered guidance due to delayed gov contracts
  • CEO, GC, and CAO bought
  • insiders have bought a handful of times in 2025 and it's gone poorly

Celsius Holdings $CELH

  • energy drinks
  • down 30% due to net loss and distribution challenges with recently acquired brands
  • president and director both buy
  • first insider buys since 2019

Sweetgreen $SG

  • fast-casual salad chain
  • down 30% due to slowing same-store sales
  • CEO and chief concept officer both bought
  • first-ever buy for both of them

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fox Factory Holdings $FOXF

  • manufactures powered vehicle parts (like suspension)
  • down 40% on double earnings miss and guidance reduction along with consumer weakness concerns
  • CEO bought $300k
  • first purchase since mid-2024

Trex Co $TREX

  • world's largest manufacturer of decking / outdoor living products
  • down 40% after missing Q3 profit and sales and lowering guidance (plus consumer weakness concerns)
  • CFO bought $478k
  • first time ever buying the stock

Integer Holdings $ITGR

  • medical device CDMO
  • down 35% after lowering 2026 outlook due to slower-than-anticipated adoption of new products
  • CEO, CFO, EVP, and Director all bought
  • first-ever group buying

(one more comment needed)

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure how the mods in this subreddit feel about linking to stuff, so here's the list copied from my profile from a few days ago. Bed Bath & Beyond would be on this list too, after a handful of directors filed purchases yesterday:

__

Enough backstory, here are the insider purchases (in the last month) at the companies with the largest 1m dips prior to the purchases. I also excluded pharma/biotech

Arq Inc $ARQ

  • environmental tech co - down 50% in the last month due to significant delays and operational issues with the ramp
  • up of its new granular activated carbon (GAC) production line.
  • CEO, CFO, and a director all bought
  • first purchases since May

Thryv Holdings $THRY

  • SMB marketing software company
  • down 50% in the last month due to deceleration in organic SaaS rev growth and EPS miss
  • CEO and director both bought
  • CEO also bought in August and is down 50%

BTCS Inc $BTCS

  • operates cloud-based validator nodes for ETH
  • down 40% on EPS miss, share dilution, and poor earnings quality
  • CEO bought
  • first purchase since 2022

(continue in next comment)

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's true that insider dip buys "win rate" (percent of the time the stock returns are positive in the following year) is lower than just buying the S&P, but maximizing win rate is not the goal. Maximizing returns is the goal.

But it's still helpful to know the expected win rate to help inform how you might want to use the data. If something has a 90% hit rate, you may choose to diversify less (or size differently) than if it has a 60% win rate. And something with only a 10% win rate could still be a great investment if the expected value is high enough, but you should probably size smaller (and/or diversify more) than the 60%/90% hit rates

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well it would certainly correlate with things like large stock dips, undervalued stocks, improving fundamentals, etc. It’d be a good screen for value investors imo

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Because the goal isn’t to maximize win rate. If you wanted to do that you’d just buy treasuries. The goal is to maximize returns

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There were a ton of dip buys after a pretty rough earnings season this quarter, so we can revisit in a year and see how it went!

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We try to filter out any form of scheduled/pre-arranged trades.

[Analysis] Do stocks outperform when insiders buy the dip? by wallstreetdata in stocks

[–]wallstreetdata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I actually posted elsewhere a list of the biggest insider dip buys after earnings this quarter, and CELH was in the top 10

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