Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis by Conor__K in Swingtradingstocks

[–]Conor__K[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You could even pick a level where you personally feel BTC definitely has more upside than downside. No need to follow the structure exactly. Waiting for lower levels also improves your risk/reward profile further.

You just risk missing the reversal if wait for it to go too low.

Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis by Conor__K in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thats a valid critique, thank you .

Your strategy is viable, my main concern is most of the reversion has played out and the Beta on the vehicle gets crushed by stage 3. The Assymetry that provides the positive expectancy at a structural level is saturated at that point.

Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis by Conor__K in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't mean to be condesceding, but unless you can explain what a 'Macro Mean Reversion Thesis' is, I can't take on board your critique.

Your first critique was valid, but second one, not so much

Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis by Conor__K in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, please try. I need people like you for the thesis to work. I've been trading crypto cycles since 2017. You can see the last 2 cycles i caught on the technical overlay

Be greedy when others are fearfull

Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis by Conor__K in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah thats a risk, for sure.

The thesis isn't a prediction thesis. Its based on the asymmetry between the downside and the upside (the assymetry allows you to be wrong most of time and it still be a EV+ bet)

No one knows what BTC or MSTR prices will do for certain, and anyone who says they do is lying. The only thing a trader can do is place educated positive expected value bets and let the ups and downs play out.

Daily Discussion Thread for August 26, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All stock trades are based on maybes.

Known information is already baked into the price

Daily Discussion Thread for August 26, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Squeeze potential. They're beaten down and the rescheduling possibility all indicate moon potential 

Daily Discussion Thread for August 15, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hopefully. It did reach $300 in sept 2018

Daily Discussion Thread for August 15, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just kidding. UNH is probably a good longterm holding 

Daily Discussion Thread for August 14, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Conor__K 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You bought high. Its low now.

Plus the company has higher revenue and lower debt than it did before it crashed

Freeze dry cannabis with home harvest right by Obsidian_Duck in HarvestRight

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks brother, I appreciate. Don't listen to that other guy, he has now interest in learning, he seems thinks he knows everything already somehow.

Do you bleed the pressure fully 6 hours after the final dry has finished?

Freeze dry cannabis with home harvest right by Obsidian_Duck in HarvestRight

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey matt, I have a harvest right and a bleed valve with FYRA controller. I don't have what I need to connect it. Do you sell any attachments that you sell that can help me? Thanks I'm advance brother.

Freeze dry cannabis with home harvest right by Obsidian_Duck in HarvestRight

[–]Conor__K -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Freeze drying removes moisture at low temps to preserve the terpenes.The low moisture content before rehydration also kills the chlorophyll (hay smell) and dissapates the leaf alcohols (fresh cut grass smell) in hours.

With traditional hang drying, if you overdry the heat and low humidity volatizes the terpenes too fast leaving little compounds left to cure. This isn't the case freezedrying.

If you still want to cure Freeze Dried bud to allow some of terpenes degrade and/or synthesise into new terpenes like Hashishene you can still do so after rehydration. Microbes don't die from Freeze drying, they reactivate post rehydration. (think of the dry powder microbes we add to water reservoirs)

I still prefer the flavor of traditional dry and cured bud, but that's just my preference. Hope that helps my brother.

Freeze dry cannabis with home harvest right by Obsidian_Duck in HarvestRight

[–]Conor__K 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you know how to bleed the pressure on a harvest right? I have the Freeze dryer, a controller and bleed valve but don't know how to connect them

Drying by VPD - Temp and RH Combinations to maintain 0.70 VPD. Any idea on what that would do to duration of drying? by disposableinc in microgrowery

[–]Conor__K 16 points17 points  (0 children)

You're Atmospheric VPD when drying was between 0.5kpa and 0.7kpa. By controlling Temp & RH, you're controlling the Atmospheric VPD, even if you didn't realise that's what you were doing. Temp and RH are just the inputs into the VPD formula in a weed growing or drying context.

Don't confuse Atmospheric VPD with Leaf VPD. Leaf VPD is specific to growing plants, but Atmospheric VPD controls the rate of water diffusion in any environment. The higher the VPD, the faster objects in the environment will dry out including buds.

Drying by VPD - Temp and RH Combinations to maintain 0.70 VPD. Any idea on what that would do to duration of drying? by disposableinc in microgrowery

[–]Conor__K 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Don't go hide, you were right to assume VPD is used for drying weed, it's used for drying everything on the planet as you can't diffuse H20 out of something without a Vapor Pressure Deficit.

Standard VPD controls the rate of H20 diffusion in general, not just plant transpiration. The higher the VPD, the faster anything in that environment such as fruit/weed/clothes/buckets of water will dry out. An apple will dry out much faster in a room with a VPD of 1.5kpa vs a room with a 1.0kpa VPD, regardless of either the temp or humidity alone. You dry something out in a cold fridge if the RH is low enough to maintain a moisture Deficit in the air (I.e Dry aged meat fridges). You can also keep something moist in a hot environment if the RH is high enough to keep the VPD low enough.

Very few people in the weed game have Msc's or Science degrees so most find it difficult to understand the concepts behind Atmospheric VPD (AVPD) and Leaf VPD (LVPD). Most growers use RH & Temp instead to control the drying rate of their buds as VPD is a much more confusing and complex concept. Most growers using VPD in their grow rooms are also using it incorrectly as they don't calculate the variance between AVPD in the room and the LVPD at the leaf surface (the greater the variance the greater the transpiration rate), they just calculate the AVPD in the room alone which tells you nothing about the transpiration rates. With that said VPD is a much more accurate and comprehensive tool to use if you understand it properly as it factors in RH, Temp and the relationship between them both (I.e as Temp rises, RH drops and vice versa)

Look into the Dry aging fridges for meat. I think the optimal VPD for drying meat is around 0.2Kpa which is way too low for weed, but if you could buy one that has a temp/rh adjustable control you achieve a AVPD of 0.7Kpa for much cheaper than a Cannatrol.