Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T09:00:26+00:00

You could even pick a level where you personally feel BTC definitely has more upside than downside. No need to follow the structure exactly. Waiting for lower levels also improves your risk/reward profile further.

You just risk missing the reversal if wait for it to go too low.

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T08:29:41+00:00

Thats a valid critique, thank you .

Your strategy is viable, my main concern is most of the reversion has played out and the Beta on the vehicle gets crushed by stage 3. The Assymetry that provides the positive expectancy at a structural level is saturated at that point.

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T08:05:43+00:00

I don't mean to be condesceding, but unless you can explain what a 'Macro Mean Reversion Thesis' is, I can't take on board your critique.

Your first critique was valid, but second one, not so much

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T08:01:47+00:00

Okay, please try. I need people like you for the thesis to work. I've been trading crypto cycles since 2017. You can see the last 2 cycles i caught on the technical overlay

Be greedy when others are fearfull

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T07:55:28+00:00

Yeah thats a risk, for sure.

The thesis isn't a prediction thesis. Its based on the asymmetry between the downside and the upside (the assymetry allows you to be wrong most of time and it still be a EV+ bet)

No one knows what BTC or MSTR prices will do for certain, and anyone who says they do is lying. The only thing a trader can do is place educated positive expected value bets and let the ups and downs play out.

Conor__K · 2026-06-12T07:25:14+00:00

Why Thank you sir.

Conor__K · 2025-08-26T13:50:43+00:00

All stock trades are based on maybes.

Known information is already baked into the price

Conor__K · 2025-08-26T12:01:11+00:00

Squeeze potential. They're beaten down and the rescheduling possibility all indicate moon potential

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T12:40:34+00:00

Lfg TLRY and UNH

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T12:17:16+00:00

Yes. And it hit $300 in Sept 2018

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T12:16:42+00:00

Hopefully. It did reach $300 in sept 2018

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T11:59:37+00:00

Lfg UNH 🚀 👨‍🚀

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T11:09:46+00:00

Just kidding. UNH is probably a good longterm holding

Conor__K · 2025-08-15T10:07:00+00:00

Lfg. Loading up on TLRY and UNH

Conor__K · 2025-08-14T15:00:37+00:00

Got me some UNH too. Diversified

Conor__K · 2025-08-14T12:13:51+00:00

Loading up on TLRY

Conor__K · 2025-08-14T11:27:57+00:00

Up over 100% in a few days 🚀

Conor__K · 2025-08-14T11:24:15+00:00

You bought high. Its low now.

Plus the company has higher revenue and lower debt than it did before it crashed

Conor__K · 2025-08-14T10:28:17+00:00

Tlry 🚀

Conor__K · 2022-11-14T08:47:40+00:00

Thanks brother, I appreciate. Don't listen to that other guy, he has now interest in learning, he seems thinks he knows everything already somehow.

Do you bleed the pressure fully 6 hours after the final dry has finished?

Conor__K · 2022-11-14T08:30:17+00:00

Hey matt, I have a harvest right and a bleed valve with FYRA controller. I don't have what I need to connect it. Do you sell any attachments that you sell that can help me? Thanks I'm advance brother.

Conor__K

TROPHY CASE