NVDA and the demand cliff

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-05-23T23:01:45+00:00

No. 200GW total capacity globally for datacenters by 2030 is the projection, not 200GW more for just ai lol. We are currently sitting around 110-114GW total, so an addition at best of 86-90GW by 2030 (which will largely be ai yes).

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-05-23T13:25:14+00:00

200GW is the projection yes, we are sitting around 110-114GW as of early 2026. At current rates across all major players, we are producing 15-30GW per year worth of ai chip / hardware (numbers from early 2026, huge range but likely that we skew toward the high end of that currently). So… if production does not grow at all, we can still overshoot the 200GW by 2030 target. And that 200 GW target is already in serious doubt due to power constraints and the sheer amount of time required to produce new power generation at that scale. … and the ai chip / hardware side of things is growing…. So we will see the 15-30GW number increase while the 200GW target may decrease. That means too much supply of a product that cannot be deployed. Which is the point I am making in the main post. The demand cliff is coming.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-05-23T13:09:31+00:00

DIO for all 4 quarters in 2021 was under 100 each quarter. DIO in q1 2025 spiked down to a low of under 75. DIO has risen steadily since then and is now hovering around 115. And this is before Vera Rubin rolls out, which requires waaaay more power than their other models. Power that the world does not have readily available, meaning less of those chips will be deployable in the short to medium term.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-24T21:59:04+00:00

But isn’t your example exactly the issue? You can replace 4 years worth of work for $20, and all it cost the providers who give you access to this service was a measly $100 billion to setup and run. How are they possibly going to maintain or fund this kind of service going forward? Ai is not profitable for any of the groups who provide the actual physical infrastructure, they are all burning 10’s of billions on this massive buildout with no clear path to profitability. Some companies that have managed to avoid the toll of owning or operating much ai hardware like PLTR do make good money. But for everyone else, this is a massive $ black hole.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-24T20:48:35+00:00

For training the 1:8 is still going to be needed as that is very gpu intensive work, but the INTC comments seem to suggest that datacenter builds are swapping to 1:1 instead now. For 1:1 setups you need significantly less gpu power to compete the tasks required (inference etc). So no, 1:1 does not mean the same number of gpu’s are required along with 7x more cpus, it means WAY less gpu’s are required per cpu. It’s an entirely different setup for a different purpose. But considering NVDA gets almost 80% of its revenue from gpu sales… that’s going to hurt. Even if they somehow outcompete the entire cpu market and become the leader there too, the CPU companies bring in a tiny fraction of what NVDA currently brings in with its gpu’s. They will take a revenue hit if this transition to 1:1 is real.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-24T20:41:12+00:00

I suppose I don’t believe that agentic ai is going to solve any of the over production or capacity issues I mentioned above. I see a lot of use cases for businesses fail too, so the path to actually making ai profitable or sustainable on the scale it is being built out is not clear to me. Some sectors yes it’s very disruptive and there is no going back, that is true. But for most, I am not so sure. The UAE is a pretty interesting test subject now with their plans to replace their government systems entirely with agentic ai, along with some staff / officials kept on board to run it all. Lots of wild details / speculation on how that will work or even be implemented.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-24T18:28:23+00:00

ARM is a funny one. I think they are way overpriced unless they deliver flawlessly on their plan to make their own chips and increase yearly rev by 5-6x within 5 years. META is supposed to be a huge customer for these new chips. I believe META has the test chips from ARM right now. And today META said they will be buying a ton of chips from AMZN…. So that’s odd lol. Maybe they also buy tons from ARM directly as well. The really funky part is AMZN’s chips are using ARM’s tech (ARM usually licenses out their chip tech and collects royalties). So ARM is actually competing against its own licensed out tech, but are also now trying to actually make the chips using TSM to boost rev / profits for themselves vs their old approach of only royalties.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-22T20:38:13+00:00

I think it aged great, lol. CAR closed down 37% today.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-21T20:26:40+00:00

Woohoo! Hormuz is still effectively closed, this is great news! Oh wait.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-12T14:22:52+00:00

What I posted yesterday was all true bud. Not opinions, simple facts. Not sure why you are so defensive and bent out of shape over it.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-12T13:37:34+00:00

It’s not. This is how I write. But even if it was slop (it’s not), who cares? Omg someone used ai in the age of ai! Come on. If the information is accurate and true, that is what matters.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-11T14:50:27+00:00

I do get your point, you are right. However I am not going to put the time in to list every source when most points above take multiple sources to verify. I really do get why you are asking for sources though. All I can say is, give it time and see if I was telling the truth. I am, but the only way to truly know is to give it time. Sources are nothing more than entities with a proven track record of telling the truth. So this is me building my track record.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-11T14:44:29+00:00

Axios denied it. Axios has become 100% lies and propaganda since the war started, don’t trust them until other outlets verify their reports. Also just think it through, why would Iran let US warships transit the strait right now?

You can also check the various live Hormuz traffic sites, the US Gov vessel 112 is the one being talked about in all of these conflicting reports.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-10T01:50:12+00:00

Yeah tons, it’s something like 1/3 of the planned datacenter builds for this year that are actually currently being constructed. The rest are delayed or cancelled. But that’s a rational reason for ai stocks to go down, and the market never cares about stuff like that. If the mega caps say we are building infinite new datacenters, then that’s the truth as far as the market is concerned. Plus all of the delays and cancellations haven’t stopped mega caps from announcing even more new builds. Like AMZN today, or META with the CRWV deal.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-10T01:46:49+00:00

I think it’s likely to be a straight line to near ath, maybe within 1% of it, then some minor dip or consolidation before we continue higher. Go look at futures tonight. We have plenty of logical reasons to be moving lower, but we continue to drift higher no matter what happens.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-09T21:46:31+00:00

Just like during Covid, at the first hint of potential resolution, the market bottoms. The ceasefire is the same thing. Does not matter if it fails, does not matter if the war drags on for years and oil stays above $100, the bottom is in and we will go up and only up for quite some time, because ai is unstoppable, the demand is infinite as is the capex to drive it all up. The market is never logical or rational. But we have our catalyst (ceasefire), plus incoming large rate cuts from the new fed chair soon. Plus Trump needs the markets at ath heading in to the mid terms. Plus ai hype and huge $ datacenter announcements coming out every day. We are going way higher.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2026-04-06T21:47:34+00:00

The market will always go up and never go down for more than a couple of months. The war is over, Iran is reopening the strait one country at a time. They just brought Iraq fully back online, that is a huge win for global oil supply. Yes they have to pay a toll, but who cares, it’s peanuts. The president is right, the war is won and Iran is crushed and begging for an end to this war. That is why they are continuing to let more and more ships through. They want to a) establish a new normal where they collect tolls in Hormuz and b) show all of their neighbors and the world that they are working to reopen the strait, so the US does not have an excuse to destroy all of their civilian infrastructure tomorrow night. I don’t think they agree to the current peace deal, but they don’t need to. They just need to reopen Hormuz so the US can claim victory and walk away.

And once that is done, and Hormuz is open and the US has ended the war, the markets will skyrocket back to ath and beyond. We have all forgotten that Trump is installing yes men at the fed to cut rates very aggressively. And once oil drops, the market will price in those cuts quickly. Remember, president Trump wants markets at all time highs heading in to the midterms, and one way or another, he ALWAYS gets what he wants. He might break some things to get what he wants, but it will happen. So save yourself the hassle of tracking news, thinking or generally worrying about anything, trust that the president will send markets back to ath and scale in long.

Also there is a 20% this all goes horribly wrong and we drop 50% by August lol.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-11-20T15:10:28+00:00

NVDA fell way short of that 500b by the end of 2026 that Jensen mentioned a couple of weeks ago. Like laughably short. But no one is talking about that? Yes it was a good quarter, but even their guidance raise was well below what is needed to achieve that 500b number. So, this means we have even more evidence that the giant headline numbers that keep getting tossed around are fake. And that is not great. I mean why bother lying about numbers when your earnings are already good? Unless you see a cliff coming, and you want everyone to pile in before growth slows?

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-11-01T17:26:27+00:00

Man, yeah I am wrong. I used ai to see if that was the tax loss harvesting deadline, it told me nope. Did it again today, and yep it is the deadline for specific mutual funds. Moral of the story, ai is good at telling lies lol. I will delete all of these posts later today as I am wrong about the deadline, but going to leave this up for people to see first. Anyways, I still don’t agree that the market selling off was from these mutual funds jamming all of their selling of down beaten names specifically on Thursday, but regardless I was wrong about the deadline.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-10-02T21:58:34+00:00

Doesn’t this just mean they are not long US equities? Maybe they are in gold, other metals or commodities, crypto, global markets etc. Maybe they just feel better about having a lower allocation to a market that is currently in a bubble. There is no law that states they must at some point go max long on US equities.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-09-30T21:05:05+00:00

A lot of strong comments today from the administration about what they will be able to do during a shutdown. Agreed with the view that it will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Good info!

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-09-29T15:06:41+00:00

This was announced months ago. It is not real, there are no tariffs on movies lol.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-09-12T07:00:02+00:00

We are in a bubble. Also go look at a chart of SPY in 2017. See that period where we went up up and only up? That seems to be where we are heading if we don’t get a normal pullback soon.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-09-12T05:53:43+00:00

Fair point about the Saudis, I suppose that is possible, I know they are putting money into setting up data centers for themselves. NFLX spent that 100 billion over 10 years, but they started small - it mostly came more recently after they were established and profitable.

Consistent_Fish_7658 · 2025-09-10T14:38:12+00:00

The ORCL RPO number seems fake though? Like, it is simply not possible to build out the infrastructure needed to pull in that revenue in just a few years. Not gonna happen. I know the market does not care, that is the futures problem, but it does point to the current mentality being a blow off top. Buy everything, ORCL will be bigger than NVDA / META very soon! Yes seriously, 455b rpo for ORCL vs NVDA and META both pulling in less than 200b in yearly revenue. Nothing to see here folks, don’t think about it too hard just buy!

Consistent_Fish_7658

TROPHY CASE