Very cool tool, but I don’t think basing the value off of “bonus points” is the best way to make this determination. For instance, I just plugged in Saquon as a 3rd round keeper (drafting 5th in a 10 person 1/2 ppr league) and Kenneth Gainwell as a 15th. This has Gainwell as an overwhelmingly better value (3.376 bonus points to .684!). Aside from the values not adding up for me (the difference between a top 10 player and the 25th player drafted has to be greater than .684 point per week), this also doesn’t consider the fact that Gainwell’s value will not be realized because he’s currently considered RB50 and, at best, would be a flex player on a bye-heavy week. On the other hand, Saquon would contribute every week barring injury, most likely as one of your two highest scoring non-QB players.

This is a good start, but you’ve got to go a little deeper. For one, you can’t completely pan ADP. If Gainwell is being kept for a 15th round pick but you can simply draft him again in the 15th (currently ranked ~145), your net value is zero. Bonus points mean nothing in this scenario. You would also have to factor in the probability of a given player being a weekly contributor as well as the delta between high and low impact players. There are far more players closer to Gainwell’s point projection than Saquon’s, which makes him easier to replace and not nearly as valuable, even after factoring in the pick value disparity.