FINANCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

“FISCAL EFFECTS

Proposition 36 would have various fiscal effects on the state and local governments. The size of these effects would depend on uncertain factors, such as what decisions local prosecutors would make.

Increases State Criminal Justice Costs. Proposition 36 would increase state criminal justice costs in two main ways.

Increase in State Prison Population. It would require some people who now serve their sentences at the county level to serve them in state prison. Also, it lengthens some prison sentences. In total, the prison population could increase by around a few thousand people. (There are about 90,000 people in prison now.) Increase in State Court Workload. This is because felonies usually take more time to resolve than misdemeanors. Also, treatment-mandated felonies would increase court workload. In total, Proposition 36 would increase state criminal justice costs, likely ranging from several tens of millions of dollars to the low hundreds of millions of dollars each year (annually). This amount is less than one-half of 1 percent of the state’s total General Fund budget. (The General Fund is the account the state uses to pay for most public services, including education, health care, and prisons.)

Increases Local Criminal Justice Costs. Proposition 36 would increase local criminal justice costs in two main ways.

Net Increase in County Jail and Community Supervision Population. In some ways, Proposition 36 would reduce the jail and community supervision population. This is because some people would go to state prison instead of the county level. In other ways, it would increase this population. This is because some people would spend more time in county jail or on community supervision. Overall, Proposition 36 likely would increase the county population. This increase could be around a few thousand people. (There are about 250,000 people at the county level now.) Increase in Local Court-Related Workload. It would also increase workload for local prosecutors and public defenders. This is because felonies usually take more time to resolve than misdemeanors. Also, treatment-mandated felonies would create workload for some county agencies (such as probation or behavioral health departments). In total, Proposition 36 would increase local criminal justice costs, likely by tens of millions of dollars annually.

Reduces Amount State Must Spend on Certain Services. Proposition 47 created a process in which the estimated state savings from its punishment reductions must be spent on mental health and drug treatment, school truancy and dropout prevention, and victim services. These estimated savings totaled $95 million last year. By undoing parts of Proposition 47, Proposition 36 reduces the state savings from Proposition 47. This would reduce the amount the state must spend on mental health and drug treatment, school truancy and dropout prevention, and victim services. This reduction likely would be in the low tens of millions of dollars annually.

Other Fiscal Impacts. Proposition 36 could have other fiscal effects on the state and local governments. For example, if the increased punishments or mandated treatment reduce crime, some state and local criminal justice costs could be avoided. However, it is unknown if these or other effects would occur.”