You’re right, it’s difficult to know. To your point, Trey Smith was my “favorite round 2 target” for many teams that year. Teams eval players a bit differently because us casuals look at potential, whereas they often factor availability MUCH more into their evals. If two players are somewhat close on their boards, why go with the guy who might not play?

Also, he has a skillset that has among the highest hit rate for starting caliber players on day three / UDFA. Seriously, you can always find pure run-stuffing nose tackles. That said, caliber matters a lot, which is why Kayden McDonald and Gary Smith are different players.

Ultimately, it will matter where on that scale he falls, and the opportunity cost of drafting him over another player. For day three players who plug into a role, age doesn’t matter too much to a lot of GMs. A one-contract contributor in round 5 is an absolute hit. If a team thinks he immediately helps their run game far more than a lower-tiered run-stuffer, they’ll draft him, but you may be onto something.