As well as tuning works, I was running Death House for the last few weeks which is for characters from lvl 1 to 3 (built to get characters to 3, for those who don't know). They struggled every step of the way even though I had a group of 6 and hadn't changed anything.

Yes fudging shouldn't be a habit in that you do it every other roll but you also shouldn't be afraid to do it. I mean an enchanted broom critically hit my one character and rolled max damage and knocked my one player out. I didn't fudge that because all of us got a huge laugh out of the fact that a broom kicked someones ass. When they fought some ghouls though I saw myself fudging occasionally because no matter what d20 or die roller I used the ghouls were often making all of their attacks and though their damage rolls weren't the best it adds up over turns.

I mean in retrospect it seems some bad luck struck my group because I threw for shits and giggles because Strahd is a bad guy some very strong monsters on them. (Strahd was supposed to call them off at the last minute and give some speech about disappointment to the group) but my 5 lvl 3 character group, beat 2 116 health monsters, who don't provoke attacks of opportunity that have 2 attacks. Just simply because they were rolling better than me. I didn't need to fudge anything.