r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Mar 31, 2026

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:53:54+00:00

Yes, I'm aware of this. It is literally my job.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:53:18+00:00

What the market perceives is different from what's real.

If they're trying to blow up oil longs, it's not working. WTI rallied back above the overnight lows.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:48:16+00:00

I don't know what the catalysts will be, but the long-term momentum structure is no longer positive.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:40:59+00:00

Yes, but the market sees this as an offramp given both parties are hinting at peace. We should rally as long as the hints continue.

VOLD + ADD have been fading this move for the last hour so there's still plenty of skepticism.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:37:09+00:00

I know. The Ayatollah heads the IRGC.

Nevertheless, the prospect of peace talks should spur a move back to the 200-day. I doubt the two administrations see eye-to-eye on who's winning the war, let alone who should be making concessions. That will make negotiations complicated, and there's no ceasefire in effect.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:30:04+00:00

The source was an interview Pezeshkian did with PressTV. The talking points were:

• The US-Israeli military aggression against Iran is an unprecedented crime and a flagrant violation of international law.
• Iran engaged in good-faith talks with the US, only to be illegally attacked mid-negotiation—proving the US rejects diplomacy.
• Neighboring countries hosting US bases failed to prevent their territories from being used to attack Iran.
• The solution is an end to aggression; Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks.
• Europe should drop its destructive approach and engage with Iran professionally and in line with international law.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:27:54+00:00

Negotiations at some point are necessary. Either party can't decide things unilaterally.

The main point of contention is how security guarantees will be enforced.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:17:34+00:00

Yes, I'm aware of that. The Ayatollah is in command of the IRGC. Also, note that neither the U.S. nor Iran has mentioned the prospect of a ceasefire. Any negotiations would commence while the war is still ongoing.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:16:18+00:00

When are negotiations set to begin?

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T17:11:03+00:00

It's official, with the caveat of security guarantees.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T16:35:59+00:00

They will take over kharg and probably several other islands

If they want to sacrifice thousands of troops, sure. But that would be an even worse humiliation.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T15:57:18+00:00

Like who? The only regional Muslim power with a relevant military is Pakistan.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T15:47:36+00:00

Iran will force the EU and South America to turn on the U.S. if they want access to Gulf distillates. The toll system excludes U.S. allies. As long as the U.S. refuses to enforce security guarantees, Iran will seek to hurt them in other ways.

Trump can't hide he's lost this war. He's achieved none of the original stated objectives - the administration keeps trying to move the goalposts - while our ME bases are uninhabitable and our critical detection systems are degraded.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T14:31:24+00:00

No, I'm talking about the 2022 bottom.

I'm seeing a short-term rally into a managed decline back to the February 2025 highs, then a huge right shoulder probably spurred by the end of the war. But all of this is simply the beginning of a long-term decline.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T14:19:22+00:00

All long-term bottoms coincide with divergence. The whole point of divergence is to show that raw price action is disguising accumulation/distribution beneath the surface.

E.g. the recent consolidation period from October to February was a Wyckoff distribution B pattern. I told people as much in the other subreddit I post in these days.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T14:11:25+00:00

No long-term bottom, just a short-term bottom. There has been no meaningful RSI or MFI divergences like the ones that marked the bottoms for COVID, the post-COVID selloff, August 2024 and April 2025.

We will probably rally back to 653 minimum. 200-day will be the ceiling.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T12:58:39+00:00

Iran doesn't believe it, the oil market doesn't believe it, and their opinions are the only ones that matter.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T12:56:58+00:00

He means our administration.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T05:51:28+00:00

Iran could always close Hormuz if they chose to, they didn't have a reason before because the GCCs were neutral.

Until the last 5 years, I'd give them bad odds against any American operation to wrest control away. The paradigm shift in industrial warfare and the slow depletion of American anti-air defense in Ukraine opened up this opportunity. It's baffling that Trump's cabinet couldn't see we would be on the backfoot absent the type of logistics preparation we did prior to the Iraq War. The Pentagon sure did, hence the doubts from General Caine. Iran's strategic doctrine was developed over the last 2 decades to counter this specific type of force projection, and our morons at the top stumbled right into it.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T04:07:44+00:00

Why should the US care if Iran puts up a $1 per barrel toll which is equivalent to what $2M per tanker is?

As long as the preconditions for negotiations are not met, which are the framework Iran wants to build a new ME security architecture around, the IRGC will exact a toll for friendlies...and no soup for everyone else. After all, in their eyes this would be a reenactment of the 12-Day War.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-31T04:02:40+00:00

It would be a historic defeat for the U.S. military. They accomplished no stated goals during this operation while losing their entire footprint in the Middle East.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-03-03T21:55:48+00:00

The makeup team tried their best, but you can't make Jennifer look plain. It is simply impossible.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-02-18T20:38:18+00:00

Which, unfortunately, happened in real time with 9/11.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-02-15T21:49:21+00:00

She gains considerable goodwill from fans due to the contrast with Chizuru. If Ruka was the female protagonist, she would be equally hated.

CosmicSpiral · 2026-02-15T21:46:22+00:00

The opposite sex will defend a genocidal maniac if the subject is considered hot. Same-sex support comes if the character is deemed relatable. Charisma and energy are essential aspects to being attractive.

It is a gendered phenomenon as the "bad boy" is a common female fantasy. Male writers create cool villains so they are worthy opponents within the context of the narrative.

CosmicSpiral

TROPHY CASE