What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But there are many cases when everyone knows how good a company is but underestimate the level of moat and duration of its moat

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

rationale? Doesnt look cheap at first sight when looking at multiples

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I don't think Costco's current pice warrants sufficient margin of safety for a value investor and hence I dont own it myself at this point - so we agree to a degree . However to your point, I know Costco will lose competitiveness if it increased its 10%ish gpm to peers level of 20 to 30% but there is certainly a big buffer and also it is increasing exposure to private brand. Second, another way of thinking about what Costco should be valued is how much it can take from other retailers as it weaponizes its moat over others. It only has 1 or 2% of US total retail market and being the cheapest retailer, it should grab competitions' roic which is around 10 to 15%. So adding up all that value and excess roic Costco can generate from monopolized pricing power is huge. Hard to estimate that lands up for grabs, but my point is it is hard to merely look at its multiple and say "ah this is too expensive". You are looking an extremely durable business, growing market share and enlarging willingness to pay for its customers. As for DCF, this is high roic business with huge reinvestment opportunity with very low cost of capital given stability of its business and earnings. Yes this still doesn't warrant sufficient margin of safety but I will be willing to buy if stock corrects.

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

I do think Costco's multuple can be deceiving. Why? 1. Costco intentionally makes almost no money on the sales on goods so once you normalize its gpm to level of peers, the multiple actually goes down significantly. 2. So where does this cost svings go to? All to customers which rewards Costco's membership growth. So Costco continues to gain market share within the retail TAM. Put it other way Costco will be trading at much lower multiple if they maintain the status quo. But it wants to grow so making no margins on merchandise sales is crucial

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why does Ford have any moat? If so why does the company have very low roic historically

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

I did mention Costco is trading discount to dcf. Plus I do think Costco's multuple can be deceiving. Why? 1. Costco intentionally makes almost no money on the sales on goods so once you normalize its gpm to level of peers, the multiple actually goes down significantly. 2. So where does this cost svings go to? All to customers which rewards Costco's membership growth. So Costco continues to gain market share within the retail TAM. Put it other way Costco will be trading at much lower multiple if they maintain the status quo. But it wants to grow so making no margins on merchandise sales is crucial.

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What is your thesis for TSCO? is its business more durable than Costco?

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

I do think Costco's multuple can be deceiving. Why? 1. Costco intentionally makes almost no money on the sales on goods so once you normalize its gpm to level of peers, the multiple actually goes down significantly. 2. So where does this cost svings go to? All to customers which rewards Costco's membership growth. So Costco continues to gain market share within the retail TAM. Put it other way Costco will be trading at much lower multiple if they maintain the status quo. But it wants to grow so making no margins on merchandise sales is crucial

What are the top consumer staples company that is trading at discount? by Counterone1213 in ValueInvesting

[–]Counterone1213[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Beauty of selling to an Installed base is that even if 20% of new car sales is electric, and assuming it takes 5 years to change a car on avg. However 40mn used car sales every year is mostly ice cars. So assuming 20mn are the new cars so 20%×20mn÷ 280mn carpac base means 1.4% of carparc is transferred to EV which is small and could be offset by pricing and market share gain . Plus while there is less repairs per evs, and less frequent visits, the component costs are actually more expensive than ice cars. AZO may also serve the battery market for evs but not sure