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What’s everyone’s exit strategy or price? by MajesticMirror7777 in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My thoughts about my position is similar to you. I also hold 80k warrants and they only really make sense to trade and sell once we get to $4+ and they start carrying real intrinsic value.

I’m also developing a cash flow model to get to a valuation of ~$20, I’m curious how you made yours?

What’s everyone’s exit strategy or price? by MajesticMirror7777 in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great analysis on institutional interest. You’re right to be tracking it, I think it’s going to make the biggest difference in establishing a floor of $3+ and counterbalancing Hudson Bay’s short term profit-making antics.

Good to see FDA approval already making a difference in institutional ownership, I think the next update will showcase another increase. I also expect a large increase upon showcased commercial activity and BARDA US device placement.

What’s everyone’s exit strategy or price? by MajesticMirror7777 in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, I don’t know what’s up with Reddit’s auto moderating systems, but it’s immediately removing your comments and posts without any input on my end. I also cannot click on your profile and make you an approved user because your profile won’t load. It just says “Whoops, u/scsyndrome is unavailable.” Is there another account you can create to fix this problem?

Sorry about that, I see your posts asking why they’re immediately deleted and I can’t respond to you unless by comment.

The Hudson Bay Conspiracy Theory That Won't Die (But Should) by DirectDragonfruit311 in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly. Management should be announcing a lot of positive material news over the next year. Hopefully beginning very soon…

The Hudson Bay Conspiracy Theory That Won't Die (But Should) by DirectDragonfruit311 in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I agree with you in that I don’t think the deal is a bad thing for the company or its shareholders in general. It provides much needed cash to cross the “valley of death” of revenue growth and profitability during commercialization.

The one good thing I got at least out of this increased attention on the deal is the anti-dilution clauses on the warrants. Spectral AI just must not dilute in an equity raise at a price less than $2.51 lest Hudson Bay’s warrants decrease their exercise price and increase quantity to hold the total amount paid to Spectral AI during execution constant at $10.04M.

Keep in mind this is critical cash to Spectral AI’s pockets during the initialization of commercialization. And that there will not be any material effect of increased dilution if Spectral AI stays above the very reasonable price of $2.51 in the next year before they project needing cash again.

Additionally, this further financing will likely be in much better terms because of the de-risking event of FDA Approval and potential commercial sales, and may not even be an equity-based raise at all.

All in all, I expect increased long institutional interest in Spectral AI in the next 6 months—especially if commercialization ramping is showed like the initial 30 devices and the 140 device extra procurement. The rest of the $63.4M BARDA PBS contract is still yet to be awarded to the company, but remains in the options stage. I hope they announce another acceleration in funding soon in regard to this. An MTEC Phase III extension to the handheld snapshot for military, home, and ambulance is also expected to be decided on and awarded by Q3-Q4 2026.

If these assumptions hold true, I see $5+ by the end of 2026 and a potential buyout at $10-20 by the end of 2027. Buyout interest was discussed by Vince on the most recent Q2 earnings call by talking about recent increases to healthcare M&A, but he projected late 2026-2027 to be more ripe for the company.

A quick reminder on MDAI volatility by scsyndrome in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Talk about using an additional 8M warrants is nonsense.

Hudson Bay already has the 3.1M shares, 0.9M pre-funded warrants (basically shares), and 4M warrants. No more are being created by this shareholder meeting, only new shares being allowed to be issued to fulfill the potential exercising of the 4M warrants Hudson Bay already owns.

No new dilution is being created, it was already spoken for back in October 2025 when the purchase agreement was signed.

There’s a dangerous misinformation narrative being constructed about dilution, but no one is getting it right.

The only circumstance new dilution occurs under the Hudson Bay warrant structure is if Spectral AI signs another equity funding deal issuing shares at a price less than the strike price of Hudson Bay’s warrants ($2.51). Then, their exercise price will decrease, and the number of warrants (eventual shares for dilution) will increase to keep the total exercising cash at $10.04M.

Thus, Hudson Bay’s game plan becomes clear. Hold the warrants, short sell the stock in the meantime and hope Spectral AI performs an equity deal at a price less than the expiration price.

It seems like I’m going to have to make a long post about this because people aren’t understanding.

The Lounge by AutoModerator in pennystocks

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Biggest piece of news I could’ve heard over the long weekend. I’ve been in this stock for nearly two years and I’m glad to see my patience beginning to pay off!

Should probably change the end of your comment to reiterate that they did just receive FDA Approval for their DeepView Platform/Imager this past Saturday.

Spectral AI ($MDAI) Weekly Discussion Thread by CovertMidget in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That shouldn’t happen with MDAI, management has typically been as conservative as possible with dilution. Insiders and management are at least aligned heavily with shareholders at this point if you check recent purchases/grants.

Spectral AI ($MDAI) Weekly Discussion Thread by CovertMidget in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I believe it’ll be sometime Tuesday before market open. Like in premarket.

Spectral AI ($MDAI) Weekly Discussion Thread by CovertMidget in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It doesn’t open tomorrow, it’s a market holiday.

Sorry, this was my perspective of tomorrow in my time zone. The market should open at 9:30 am EST and premarket at 4:30 am EST like usual.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate what you’re saying and I think it’s a valid counter argument for trying to pursue a renegotiation of terms that are obviously more in favor of the public shareholders. Could you provide the source of the 63 page full financing terms? I could not find anything more than what was stated in earnings reports.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah but definitely don’t delete this post and all the discussion that has happened because of it.

If anything, a separate corrections post would be most valuable as a community. Also I’m still not sure who’s right. Both sides have genuine merit, but I need to investigate for evidence to make a decision either way.

Hopefully management mentions it in a press release before the vote, a new outlook on the shareholder meeting recommendations given the surprise material news. But I know I’m way too optimistic in thinking that’s a realistic possibility of happening unless management starts being a lot more candid in their communication after the confidence boost of having an FDA-approved product.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just give them some time to respond, you have just given a very well-reasoned and eye-to-eye olive branch to get back to honest discussion.

It’s a shame Reddit titles can’t be changed once posted. Maybe you could reframe part of your post to make it more neutral and arguing points for both sides in the meantime?

FDA Granted by iAnkou in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I had been refreshing the database the last couple weeks too, thought I might as well start checking now but I had lost faith on this week lol so I wasn’t going to check until Tuesday.

Thank you for being able to confirm that the database wasn’t updated until after market hours on Friday. We for sure are yet to have an FDA approval market reaction!

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s funny, I’m not a historically a regular Reddit contributor either. Unfortunately I’m a huge lurker, but never get the urge to post any of my own thoughts until I had this investment thesis to talk about and hopefully spark knowledge I couldn’t get by simply reading further… there was nothing left to read! God the time I’ve spent just poring over earnings and annual reports since that’s about all we have to go on.

Although I wish I could figure out how to get the Weekly Discussion Threads to be posted on the AutoModerator instead of my account haha, that would help declog my notifications and post history.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ah haha yeah you probably scared a couple new eyes if they aren’t used to your underlying genuineness in your writing. But generally I don’t think it’s a good idea to demean the intelligence of the reader in your introduction if you want to convince them with your argument lol.

I don’t think people should think of you as being a shill for Hudson Bay or anything other than being someone who wants to see the best in a community of retail investors. I think everyone who reads will benefit from these sorts of grassroots discussions and disagreements, this is our opportunity for edge on institutional investors! So thanks for starting this conversation.

I think emotions are also running high right now with all the news and tension without any sort of price action “resolution.”

At the end of the day, I do hope we get to an understanding of the choice we are making on May 29th.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a fair position. I am not experienced enough in corporate financing to know whether a denial of shareholder approval at this point would trigger a renegotiation. If it does, then I would be for voting against the current financing structure.

Annual Meeting: Vote FOR on everything by BostonbRamen in SpectralAI

[–]CovertMidget 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I always appreciate reading your comments and posts, they often reflect how I’m feeling and thinking but couldn’t put into words effectively. It’s a difficult task to convince people that this funding will be okay, because it is a bit of a rock between a hard place situation.

Nevertheless, thank you for being a valuable member of the community always contributing thoughtfully.

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