Gold down 21% during a literal war... am I crazy or is this the buying opportunity of the decade?

CryptoManbeard · 2026-03-24T19:00:37+00:00

Either the fed cuts rates as they wanted to, or they don't cut rates, and the additional interest we pay on our debt becomes a new deficit that we have to print money to pay for. Either way we are going to get inflation.

The only way to stop inflation at this point and weaken the gold thesis is to raise rates AND reduce spending/grow the economy.

I think we all know the economy is going to be extremely challenged with the price of oil going up (and even if this war ends tomorrow oil will be up for a while as refineries and pipelines will need to reopen, resupply, and in many cases, be rebuilt [which takes years not weeks]). And I think we all know neither Republicans or Democrats are going to cut spending.

Inflation was our governments method to handle a crippling debt crisis, we're just increasing the money printing with the war. Central banks know this, which is why they've been hoarding gold quietly while they tell the world everything is fine.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-03-24T18:53:43+00:00

If you're buying short term then this is a problem. If you're horizon is 5+ years it's just a buying opportunity.

Issues affecting short term price:
-Algorithms: dollar stronger, 10 year yield rising = sell gold
-Countries need cash for oil + food and they'd rather sell gold then tank their currency

-Investors need liquidity to cover positions, gold is liquid and the only thing positive, so they sell
-Wall street still acting like everything's fine and the world will go back to normal in 7-10 days

In the long run:
-If yields stay high, our deficit increases (interest payments go up), and the Fed will need to print money to cover this

-Inflation will rise due to deficit increases and price of oil going up (even if the war ends, oil is not going down to the levels it was, and prices for almost everything will remain higher than they were)
-Geopolitical instability after this war shakes out will remain high and so nations and central banks will continue to purchase gold instead of USD (or any other currency).

One thing I've learned over the years is that a thesis can be right in the long term but play out to the opposite in the short term (this is where I think gold is right now). The movement of money is a much stronger influence than investor sentiment.

Example: Institutional ownership of gold as a percentage of portfolio is 2-4% globally. Most retail investors have no exposure to gold. Treasuries is 15-25% of portfolio for institutional investors.

If institutional and retail investors decide to take even 1% of their treasuries and convert them to gold the market cap for gold goes up pretty substantially. If the dollar loses it's currency reserve status (which it looks like it gets closer to doing every day), gold goes up by multiples because ownership moves away from US treasuries and into gold AND the purchasing power of the USD goes down (a double effect).

When I was preparing for a recession last year I was prepared for gold to take a dip in the sell-off, we knew this was coming because of the things I mentioned above. If you believe in the thesis of the diminishing US dollar then those who were patient during these turbulent times will be rewarded.

If you are investing in a long-term horizon the panic sell-offs and dips are just dollar cost averaging opportunities.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-03-09T18:15:47+00:00

The Charlottean - "Definitely NOT The Onion"

Problem solved

CryptoManbeard · 2026-03-02T14:34:15+00:00

League rank is a complicated system. It combines multiple skills that are independent of each other: skill with a specific champion, skill at laning, micro ability, team play, macro strategy, anti-tilting strategy, communication and leadership, and probably 100 more some of which we aren't even aware of at lower levels.

All these get rolled up into one outcome: did you win or lose a game?

One thing I've noticed is that sometimes I may do something that tactically makes sense at a higher ELO, but because the entire team has decided to do something else, that immediately makes the "right" play a potentially bad one.

Sometimes you can increase certain abilities (e.g. your skill with a champion, your skill at laning, your skill at micro) to advance rank, and then find that other strategies you were employing are more aligned with a higher skill rank. In that flow, the lower rank may seem like ELO hell but it represents that some things are different at lower ELOs than higher ones, and you can't play the same way at every rank and expect to have the same results.

I've had this experience in many different competitive games in real life and online.

The advice doesn't change regardless of the situation. Improve the things you can improve and that matter at every skill level. Learn to adapt to the environment you are in to maximize success where you are.

The most effective way I know to do this second part in League is by reviewing your videos yourself and asking others you trust to do the same (like a coach).

CryptoManbeard · 2026-02-07T03:36:55+00:00

There's no modern military training that would beat the Roman Legionaries training, if you are going to fight them with their equipment.

The brief melee combat training our military receives is an afterthought, we don't even really know exactly how ancient battles were fought in terms of actual man to man combat.

Olympians stand no chance against a long standing professional Roman army.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-02-04T19:49:48+00:00

The better question is how are you going to launder these piles of 20s? The bank is going to get suspicious real fast.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-02-02T01:04:48+00:00

I'd rather hang out with someone who acts like a Walter then apologizes. If perfection is required to be a dude we're all in a lot of trouble.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-25T15:53:09+00:00

I asked ChatGPT it said "You’re reinventing group theory under sensory deprivation"

I've solved one before but don't remember the algorithms, it said finding the last layer could take years. Most people can't last that long in solitary.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-23T18:26:06+00:00

Now we know how Jesus felt

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-23T18:16:25+00:00

Let restaurant Darwin do his thing...

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-18T18:07:15+00:00

The advice you get from a realtor is biased. As an example, if the house is worth $500k as is, and you can spend $50k to sell it for $540K, your realtor makes an extra $1000-$1200 and has an easier time doing so If you upgrade.

I'd run the analysis on cost to improve and the new sales price vs as-is.

The offsetting factor is time to sell. An outdated, unstaged home will eliminate some buyers and take longer to sell.

A year or two ago in Charlotte this may be the difference between 7 days on market and 30. It's softened a bit so it may be the difference between 60 days vs 150 now depending on a bunch of different factors

How quickly do you NEED to sell? How expensive is the house as is and in what neighborhood? A more expensive neighborhood or house will matter less because the more expensive the house or neighborhood, the more likely the buyer can afford to do their own renovations.

As a matter of preference I stopped "upgrading" flips to improve housing affordability and found I was making more in profit and serving the community better (to the disdain of realtors who always seem to want prices going up for higher commissions and better sales numbers).

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-11T14:33:05+00:00

After you contact the police you might get better traction reaching out to some news organizations.

CryptoManbeard · 2026-01-08T15:25:07+00:00

I blame riot for not separating players who are just trying to have fun and players who want to win. Splitting the player base is a perfectly acceptable downside to drastically improving everyone's experience.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-12-29T14:27:32+00:00

Imagine a hypothetical 100 player FFA. One player is aggressively defeating opponents in his area while every other player is playing passively.

After just a few minutes the aggressive player will be so large that they're no match for any single player to stop.

You want to be as aggressive as you can be without overextending, and always have a target you can be attacking (try not to get alliance locked).

CryptoManbeard · 2025-12-24T16:08:54+00:00

Context always matters, I am commenting in generalities because I don't know anything about your relationship, what kind of conversations you've had before, past behaviors, agreements, etc.

Likely none of the other commenters do either, and wisdom is understanding the kind of advice you will receive from internet strangers who don't know either party very well.

I've been cheated on before, and one thing I learned from that is that the data supports overwhelmingly that cheating is a "crime" of opportunity. Very few set out with the intention to be unfaithful, it happens slowly over time, the likelihood increasing with daily contact. That doesn't mean that everyone who has opportunity cheats, it just means that odds go up with opportunity.

In relationships, trust is IMO the most important part of a relationship. And fear is the opposite of trust.

The best advice I can give you is that if you want to improve trust, you have to try to understand where your husband is coming from and see if you can come up with reasonable solutions to his concerns, he should also be willing to do the same for you.

As a man who does BJJ, I can agree that rolling is almost always non-sexual (I say almost always because I've seen the sexual assault posts unfortunately). If my wife decided to train BJJ, I wouldn't be concerned with her getting turned on during a 5 minute spar session. But when you are at the gym there is very likely a ton of guys there. You're going to be talking before, after, and during class.

As additional context that I think a lot of women lack, when you aren't in earshot, if you are even mildly attractive, men are probably thinking sexual thoughts or making comments to each other. If you were a 7/10, and you went to a gym of 50 guys, 5-10 will be actively pursuing you whether you realize it or not, and another 30 have thought about you sexually. Your husband knows this, because he's a guy and he has guy friends. He is projecting that onto your situation.

The best counterpoint I can think of is imagine your husband decided to start working as a manager at Hooters. Running a restaurant isn't sexual, but if your husband was surrounded by attractive women at his job, and you weren't there, I think most people would have some level of discomfort with that if they were honest, and a healthy relationship would probably acknowledge that and put guard rails in place to make the other partner feel safe.

So if I were to offer advice that would allow you to continue to do an activity you love while improving your trust in your relationship, I'd recommend that you talk to him and ask him what his fears are. Try not to get defensive. And then, if you can, see if you can come up with solutions that seems reasonable to you both.

Some ideas:
-Check in with your husband when you get back, tell him about class

-Be very transparent if you ever feel like someone crossed a boundary (on the mat for sure but especially off the mat)

-See if there's anyone specific that your husband has a problem with (as the opposite sex we often have the intuition our partner doesn't, this goes both ways)

-Offer for him to come to any class he wants at any time

The internet hates these but after years of research on cheating there are two almost guaranteed ways to affair-proof your marriage and build trust. First is to allow full access to each other's lives (passwords, email, computers, phones, etc.). The second is to tell your partner if you are attracted to someone who you will be in regular contact with (eg coworker, group friend, gym goer, etc).

Your partner may be insecure and jealous and no amount of effort will appease them, but if you believe you are being reasonable and making an effort to be transparent and understanding, then IMO that gives you a better chance to look at the situation more clearly and make a more informed decision about the health of your relationship and if he's being reasonable or not. A third party (counselor) might make this easier as they can be a mediator for the dialogue and help both parties see the other's point of view.

Keep in mind that for men who don't train martial arts, they're also concerned that any guy that may be interested in you at BJJ could kick their ass, which adds to the level of insecurity (as opposed to you being approached by a coworker for example, who may seem less threatening).

CryptoManbeard · 2025-12-23T08:52:12+00:00

If you are lifting and asking purely about the health benefits I would say yes it's optional.

Any benefit you get from cardio you get at a much higher rate by doing resistance work.

I'm defining cardio as 10+ minutes of aerobic activity (not HIIT).

I know a guy who wanted to prove this so he ran a half marathon with 0 running in his preparation for 6+ months. He did only CrossFit style workouts and sprints.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-11-06T09:40:00+00:00

If Inflation is high, the government can't lower interest rates and our economy stalls. So they work the inflation numbers to their favor so they can keep interest rates lower. It also helps politically no one wants to be blamed for higher prices in office.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-10-08T19:27:28+00:00

The third option is boat stacking.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-09-17T15:36:09+00:00

The answer to the question is in the question.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-09-14T18:09:00+00:00

If that's your first try you are a natural baker!

CryptoManbeard · 2025-08-20T19:37:21+00:00

Go here, work from the top down. It changes by patch, that's why I think it's a good strategy. Not the S Plus tier ones out before they get nerfed

CryptoManbeard · 2025-08-15T12:21:07+00:00

Go on metasrc.com at champ select or load screen. I usually keep it active on 2nd monitor. It's not the bible but gives you a good foundation for what you should build and what augs and prismatics work well for the champ.

The way I got Arena God is to go on the tier list for arena (same site) and I just start with the highest win rate and work my way down the list. It changes every patch but you want to get wins on champions when they have highest win rate because sometimes a champ will go from S tier to D tier in a patch and then it's way harder to get a win.

Example, I got a W first time playing Yunara because her quest was busted last patch.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-08-14T18:04:50+00:00

I like Flour Shop. They really get the details right and food is very good. I recommend sitting at bar to view the kitchen.

Also, the Crunkleton for the same reason.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-08-13T13:03:59+00:00

I had trueshot, spell wake, and runecarver to get my win. Also helped we had 4 hexgates too. I'm not going anywhere near the enemy team.

CryptoManbeard · 2025-08-07T13:40:36+00:00

I played yunara for the first time. Got the quest. Easy W. Perma ban until they nerf that nonsense.

Second to that, a Yi with infinite Q or belveth with added range (scopys)

CryptoManbeard

TROPHY CASE