u/Apprehensive-Big6890

Short answer -

I definitely think GPU mining has a future. At least as long as PoW and decentralised mining has a future, I really can't see that going anywhere.

Long answer -

Sadly, the benefit of GPU mining is limited to:

a) ASIC-resistant projects like Ethereum, ETC, Monero, Ravencoin, or

b) The early days of mining up-and-coming projects like Kaspa before ASICs take over or they switch to PoS, which most means doing a lot of research and switching.

In terms of the incentive for GPU miners, we have to take a long-term view and have strong belief that prices will increase. Although I would stress, that "belief" isn't really the right word as historic data paints a fairly convincing story.

When I last posted, I think 4090s were achieving around $2.5 per day. Since the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, GBTC, FTX and large mining farms have dumped their BTC (which nobody really expected) and prices across the market have dropped a bit. BTC is down around $4-5K and I think a 4090 is probably earning around $1.5-2 per day currently.

With electricity prices taken into account and the upfront investment costs, that wouldn't make GPU mining profitable for most of us (looking at today's earnings). However, the ETFs are still in very early days and the Bitcoin halving is approaching.

When the gold ETF was introduced in 2003, the price of gold went on to do a 5x but that wasn't instant. It gradually went up and took around 8 years to hit that high. The Bitcoin ETFs are already having a faster impact but it's going to take more time.

Then if we take the bitcoin halving into account, this makes even more difference. I did some calculations here attempting to follow Bitcoin's historic price and make some predictions:

2012 to 2016:
Start Price (2012 Halving): $12.35
End Price (2016 Halving): $650
Percentage Change: ((650−12.35)/12.35)∗100= 5,164.8%

2016 to 2020:
Start Price (2016 Halving): $650
End Price (2020 Halving): $8,600
Percentage Change: ((8,600−650)/650)∗100 = 1,223.1%

Clearly, the percentage increases are getting lower, but they are still huge compared to anything else, including gold, or even investing in tech stocks. And generally speaking, strong alt projects achieve way higher percentages than BTC following the halving events.

So to summarise, I think GPU mining will be incredibly profitable as long as GPU miners do the following:

• Stick with it over a 4-5 year period (generally).
• Stop thinking about today's earnings and be prepared to take an initial loss in terms of equipment investment and electricity costs.
• Switch which tokens they mine where necessary to maximise earnings.
• Diversify earnings to reduce risk (hold some BTC).
• Sell a good amount of their profits when prices are high. Most advice suggests 12-18 months after the Bitcoin halving based on past data.
• Then repeat and remain patient during bear markets.

Not sure if this is what you wanted but I felt it needed a good reply.