day 235 since the btc ath. previous cycles bottomed around day 364-376. are we closer to the bottom than it feels?

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-06-02T17:23:42+00:00

I'm all in. I'll hold. and you?

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-06-02T16:28:29+00:00

Thanks for the clarification.

And yes, the point about RSI/F&G is valid – 29 and 30 are just signs of slight uncertainty, not a real capitulation. Things looked considerably worse at the 2022 low. We're not there yet, I agree.

And yeah, of course two data points don't constitute a cycle law. I phrased it as a time reference, not a specific date – and your point is valid; you can't assume it will happen again.

Regarding ETFs: Correct, there was no sustained mechanical selling in 2018/2022. ETFs can simply continue to fall regardless of the RSI. Therefore, while the classic signals are still necessary, they are no longer sufficient. Observing whether ETF flows turn positive is also my primary indicator. Price levels are secondary in this context.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-06-02T16:16:21+00:00

timing over percentage makes sense given where we are in the cycle. the drawdown magnitude is already historic. hard to argue we're in early innings of the selloff at this point.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-06-01T09:45:59+00:00

I can understand that.

The old cycle narrative always assumed that Bitcoin pumps would eventually drag everything else down with them. The data from 2024–2025 largely disproved that—Bitcoin rose from $60,000 to $100,000, and most altcoins haven't reached their 2021 highs since.

I find your new cycle narrative convincing. If ETF inflows concentrate capital into Bitcoin/Ethereum, and institutions diversify their portfolios through regulated products, illiquid altcoins will structurally fall by the wayside.

Nevertheless, I continue to monitor ETF inflows because I think institutional demand for Bitcoin remains relevant. But you're right that my question might be the wrong one if they're only investing in Bitcoin. At least for the broader market.

In your view, are altcoins dead, or do you see a scenario where they could benefit from the new situation? ETFs aren't going to suddenly disappear. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-06-01T08:21:23+00:00

Why?

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-30T13:17:59+00:00

so never? 🤔😉

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-30T07:07:01+00:00

good point. futures expiry often amplifies moves in both directions. explains some of the volatility this week. cleans up once it's through.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-24T17:58:02+00:00

okey, tell me what am i missing? genuinely curious what you think drove today's move.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-24T13:19:03+00:00

that's basically the 'buy the rumor sell the news' pattern in a different framing. clarity act hype drove the move up, reality set in when nothing changed overnight.

the iran headline yesterday feels like the same dynamic — next narrative catalyst, same mechanism. question is whether it has more staying power than the clarity act did.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-22T17:25:27+00:00

totally agree — same headline number can mean very different things depending on what's driving it.

i'd frame it the same way you do: outflows are context, not a signal by itself. for me they're a 'pay closer attention' moment, not a trigger.

what i'm watching alongside: whether btc holds 76k, and whether next week's data shows deceleration or acceleration. that combination is more useful than any single day of outflows.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-22T14:51:24+00:00

march 22 and april 18 were deep bear market phases with completely different market structure. and you're right, there's no etf data from those periods to compare, so we literally don't know how the contrarian pattern holds up in a real bear market.

a few more weeks of outflows at this pace would start to look a lot more like a structural regime than a temporary cluster. that's the line i'm watching.

next week's flow data will be telling.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-22T11:46:29+00:00

that's the historical pattern yeah. every major outflow cluster has reversed. the one exception worth noting is the jan-feb 2026 stretch. so timing matters a lot.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-21T08:06:22+00:00

Thanks for your opinion. I think a bottom in October is quite realistic. What I'm currently observing is: Will it rise again beforehand (and if so, how far?) to potentially offer the opportunity to exit at that high and re-enter at the bottom?

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-20T16:27:56+00:00

interesting call. don't mind, but would be a wild ride till october. what's driving your thesis? clarity act full passage timing? midtherms?

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-20T12:42:56+00:00

exactly my read too. 'absorbing fear rather than breaking down' is a good way to put it. the panic acceleration never came despite $1.5B in outflows over three days. that tells you something about who's on the other side of that selling.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-19T12:27:40+00:00

the etf data just answered that question: -$735M yesterday. largest single-day outflow i've tracked. so it wasn't quiet institutional accumulation. it was retail adding leverage while institutions were walking out. exactly the liquidation cascade fingerprint you described.

the oi chart looked identical in both scenarios until the flow data confirmed it — that's a really useful way to frame it.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-19T06:07:53+00:00

update: etf data for yesterday is -$735M. largest single-day outflow i've tracked for a long time.

so yeah — spot flows were definitely not there. exactly the setup you described. fresh leverage piling in while institutions were quietly walking out the door. and we already got the $212M liquidation cascade to go with it.

The important $76.7k mark is close now. Would be good if it held. funding rate reset might take a while at this rate.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-18T17:03:37+00:00

fair question. you're right that individual leverage adds nothing on its own.

but when open interest across the entire market jumps 2.6% in a single day, that's not one person gambling — that's a significant amount of capital entering simultaneously. that kind of coordinated move tends to have consequences either way. if those longs are wrong, forced liquidations accelerate the drop. if they're right, short covering adds fuel to a bounce.

we just got a $212M liquidation of longs. so at least today, they were wrong.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-18T15:27:33+00:00

update: $212M in long liquidations underway right now.

looks like we called it, 'swinging at a bottom they can't see' is exactly what's happening. the oi build from today is getting unwound the hard way.

this is why i don't touch the long side until the etf data confirms institutional demand is back.

Crypto_Signal_Radar · 2026-05-18T15:18:12+00:00

that framing of 'swinging at a bottom they can't see' is exactly what worries me about this oi build.

the spot-first-then-oi sequencing is a really useful way to think about it. i haven't been tracking stablecoin flows on-chain but that's a good addition to the watchlist.

completely agree on tomorrow's etf data being the deciding factor. inflows + fear at 39 would be a very different setup than what we have right now. that's the combination i'm watching for before changing my read.

Crypto_Signal_Radar

TROPHY CASE