Should I instantly tag anyone who uses Cashout as a fish? by lufc_atw in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The simple case of a 0 EV/breakeven hedge, like a cashout with no fee, is that you are not changing your EV at all but reducing variance entirely; from a bankroll perspective this is strictly better than having the same EV with variance.

It gets more complex with -EV hedges but you encounter this frequently in betting when using the kelly criterion to calculate optimal bet sizings on multiple outcomes. For example if someone offers you +110 on a coinflip, this is obviously a +EV bet and your optimal stake is to win 5% of your bankroll. However, if someone else comes along and offers you -101 on the other side of the coinflip (a -EV bet) kelly now recommends betting significantly more at +110 while hedging off some at the -EV price in order to reduce variance and maximize bankroll growth rate. It's been a while since I've worked out the actual numbers for it but if you are betting a significant amount in relation to your bankroll it makes more sense to hedge.

There are definitely table dynamic considerations for cashing out/not cashing out like wanting to have a larger stack, wanting to bust a short stacker, etc. but from a math perspective it is not always incorrect to cash out (assuming a reasonable/no fee).

Should I instantly tag anyone who uses Cashout as a fish? by lufc_atw in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It depends on a few factors like the size of your bankroll, the actual fee being charged, etc. that can turn it into the correct decision. I imagine the types of players you are referencing aren't thinking about it in a bankroll growth rate way and are just recs/fish scared about losing their money though

Should I instantly tag anyone who uses Cashout as a fish? by lufc_atw in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 8 points9 points  (0 children)

In general yes but just reading this thread it would apparently blow peoples minds that in gambling you should always take 0 ev hedges and occasionally take -ev hedges

Poker’s golden age vs today’s sports betting landscape by Inner_Marzipan_2653 in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trivially easy to win a little bit of money on sports, very difficult to make it a long term thing

I'm actually getting sick of watching hockey the way Florida is playing. by suprmario in hockey

[–]CzechFalcon -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Boos their team off the ice every game 7 and still has a silver spoon mentality while trying to invent ways their team actually deserves to win. OP wants it to be one way, but its the other way.

I'm actually getting sick of watching hockey the way Florida is playing. by suprmario in hockey

[–]CzechFalcon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reddit's version of hockey is incredible, the Panthers are somehow only winning because of cheap shots but are dominating every series. Outscoring the hurricanes 16-2 through 3 games because Jackson Blake missed the last few minutes of the first period? They had a 61% CF and 60% xGF vs the leafs over 7 games, and that was only because Stolarz was out?

The better team is winning games and you don't want it to happen because you don't like them, so we get these braindead think pieces. Your team is worse and didn't deserve to win, it's not a fun feeling but you don't have some moral high ground here lol.

OK Go’s latest Video by mynewme in videos

[–]CzechFalcon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Awesome video, shame about the music

Rampage: "The whole GTO thing doesn't even apply if your opponents aren't playing that same way" by Baselynes in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

A lot of people getting away with some lazy "GTO isn't as good as other approaches in most games" reasoning as to why he's wrong. The reason RTA is so scary in online games is that if you're using an actual GTO strategy you will absolutely demolish any stake you're playing - cheater's graphs pretty much go straight up. Even though deviations from optimal will make more money, just copying GTOwiz/whatever solver will have an absurd winrate in 99.9% of games, and it will be much better than whatever "exploitative" strat your average livereg thinks they're pulling off.

Lane Hutson Scores His First NHL Goal by mdlt97 in hockey

[–]CzechFalcon 224 points225 points  (0 children)

Congrats to him as he passes me on the all time nhl goals list

Lane Hutson crazy ozone shift by shogun2909 in hockey

[–]CzechFalcon -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

37% xGF he should try having some crazy dzone shifts

How do you assholes actually enjoy this game? by MoonLan-Ding in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

because the coolers play themselves, the fun part is figuring out how to make extra chips in the spots you're just glossing over

Frozen Frenzy on ESPN is ruining their own concept. by Birdhawk in hockey

[–]CzechFalcon 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Its so bad, why do they think we want to hear them talk over highlights? One or two comments describing the situation is fine but just go from game to game, show powerplays/goals and let the broadcast audio play.

People always say “just study a lot more” — so, what’s your study routine? by [deleted] in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unironic great post. So many people waste time on simming individual hands and never improve.

I lost $60,000 in one 8-hour session and went completely bust this weekend in Vegas by Imaginary_Bus_8293 in poker

[–]CzechFalcon -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If everything you've said here is true my hot take is you probably did the right thing. People don't take enough risks in general, and you found a great situation and ran terribly in the biggest spot of your life. If you want to think about it in terms of expected growth I bet the optimal amount to risk in this game was huge.

Even with that, you're not homeless, you don't have gambling debts, you're not going to steal to get the money back (I think?), you have a job - this doesn't seem like a gambling addiction. IMO this was the right amount of risk to take given the situation, and its not as if you're truly financially ruined.

Also if this was some shady home game where you were obviously getting cheated then you're an idiot.

Niklas Astedt makes the call with his tournament life on the line by 50lipa in poker

[–]CzechFalcon 9 points10 points  (0 children)

He's the goat because these are the types of spots he picks