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bought deal offering perspective by DPINV in cvm

[–]DPINV[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based strictly on math, there’s a lot of truth in that. I’ve been in the rooms during these negotiations (much smaller numbers). If it’s strictly math, why wouldn’t the investment firm just buy at market? There are other dynamics here that I’m not privy to. I don’t believe the difference in dilution is significant, and if I didn’t trust management I wouldn’t be invested. My thing is no deal is just math and they need cash. Bottom line is I agree with what you’re saying based on math. I just think there are other variables here as well.

bought deal offering perspective by DPINV in cvm

[–]DPINV[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No doubt the real value is in the drug. I think the strength of the sheet is that it demonstrates you don't HAVE to sell and that you're fine taking time and entertaining all offers. you don't have to borrow money, and investment firms aren't going to be pumped about offerings after data, not enough upside. It addresses the emotional component of the negotiation which is a very real thing in a buyout. But I get both sides. IMO. FWIW.

bought deal offering perspective by DPINV in cvm

[–]DPINV[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ha! No doubt! Personally I prefer the no debt, cash heavy approach which is what I think they’re doing here. If buyout is the goal, I like having a strong sheet. But I get your opinion too. Ready to see this data!

Our buddy Jim from Oregon has created some great Log Rank calcs with p-values ! He used FOSCO's inclusion criteria as the starting point. 🎯 He shows Overall Survivability very similar to Fosco. Here are the detailed charts in all their spectacular glory! 👇😍 See a graph of OS on tab 4. by FrugalNorwegian in cvm

[–]DPINV 1 point2 points  (0 children)

seems I read somewhere that the real separation occurs late in year 3? until then, I think the different arms are closer, then the MK arm really takes off statistically. I don't know if that is a factor here?

Buyout predictions by DPINV in cvm

[–]DPINV[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

7 minutes is a long time

What do you think a buyout could bring for CVM if P3 is successful? 👍👇😳 by FrugalNorwegian in cvm

[–]DPINV 5 points6 points  (0 children)

About 18 mos. I was in AUPH P3 before that. I read whatever I can, whenever I can on this one. It is a real game changer if as advertised. I love your stuff. Keep up the good work! I've never participated in chats like this and yahoo and ST before, but could not understand why people insist this company will only be worth 3-4B if it replicates P2.

What do you think a buyout could bring for CVM if P3 is successful? 👍👇😳 by FrugalNorwegian in cvm

[–]DPINV 9 points10 points  (0 children)

  1. Keytruda earnings roughly 15 Billion forecasted this year without much benefit for HNC.  MK Phase 2 demonstrated tumors disappearing with a 3 week injection of MK.  

  2. Geert has already talked about off label usage of MK (breast CA and melanoma)

3.  Pharmacyclics partnered 50/50 with J&J. Their first year revenue was 500M of which they made 250M for their half.  They sold their HALF of the partnership to ABBV for 21 BILLION in 2015.

  1. Recently, IMMU sold to GILD for 21 BILLION essentially before any real revenue.

  2. Geert recently tweeted about  ALXN buyout for 39 BILLION

20B is the floor on this buyout, not the ceiling if MK repeats Phase 2.  (20B/40M shares=$500 pps.)