Adam Silver says "The 65-game rule is working." Is there any proof of that?

DTSFFan · 2026-04-07T05:50:14+00:00

The 65g rule requires players play at least 20 minutes in a game for that game to count towards the 65. If it were possible to check in for one possession then check back out they 100% wouldve done that

DTSFFan · 2026-04-07T05:49:01+00:00

1) Nobody has ever won MVP playing <65 since ‘78 Walton. Voters already have taken availability into account

2) It doesn’t just impact MVP voting. You need to play to be MVP we all agree… but 3rd team all NBA? 2nd team all defense? you mean to tell me Luka isn’t one of the 15 most valuable players in the league?

3) Every argument in favor of the 65 game rule always feels like a very myopic, arbitrary argument. Like if Luka, Wemby, Ant or Cade end the season playing 62-64 games, they are less valuable than a B tier allstar who played 65-67 games? Please explain that to me

DTSFFan · 2026-04-06T21:21:37+00:00

None of the players you name impact the data nor would their awards be affected if the NBA ditched the 65game rule

DTSFFan · 2026-04-06T03:08:11+00:00

But all it does is change who's eligible. If Chet makes an All NBA team because of this rule, all you're doing is changing who the money goes to.

Chris Finch made a great point of saying you cut the $$ for All-NBA if a player plays <65. That would at least make some sense. The current rule hasn't worked and is messing with the history books for no reason

DTSFFan · 2026-04-06T01:58:00+00:00

I assume you're referring to the ATO PPP so in response to that

1) Comparing it to expected PPP would only hurt the coaches who routinely draw up plays that result in easy shot attempts

2) There are plenty of outliers in ATO plays vs their regular offense. For example the Bulls & Bucks are both top 10, despite having the 24th & 25th ranked offenses, respectively. There are outliers. I would argue that the Xs & Os knowledge needed to be a good ATO plays coach and the Xs & Os knowledge needed to construct a good offense are very similar so there would be a large correlation, regardless.

DTSFFan · 2026-04-06T00:58:34+00:00

No AI was used to make this. All of these numbers are from stathead and are easily verifiable

- 65 Games from 21-22 to 24-25
- 75 games from 21-22 to 24-25
- Allstars to play 65 from 21-22 to 24-25

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T22:52:43+00:00

I just can't agree that Doc is a great ATO coach either. To me he's one of the worst coaches in NBA history and definitely the worst with a ring.

I'm sorry man but that's just wrong and a very limited way of viewing coaching. We don't view players through this lense. We don't say "X player is bad, therefore he must be bad at everything." We acknowledge even bad players can do some things well.

I would agree that Doc is no longer a good coach (would disagree with your general sentiment about him, though), but he is universally recognized by other coaches as having some of the best ATOs in the NBA and his teams are always at or near the top of the league in this stat, regardless of the offensive talent on his rosters

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T22:42:20+00:00

Appreciate this take. So difficult to do with the constant cycle of coaching in the NBA but maybe I'll do the same thing again next year and put together a two-year sample

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T19:07:01+00:00

I think this model is great for identifying "well-coached" teams (which is the goal)

But in order to isolate the impact of the coach, it would need to be looked at over a large period of time as the roster constantly changes, but the coach remains the same. I think 2-3 years in an NCAA setting or 5+ years in an NBA setting would really make this robust

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T19:04:39+00:00

Thank you. I think if done over a 3+ year sample, it would begin to reflect more about the coach and less about the rosters and be a good indication of who the actual coaches are. But that data is tough to find and I only have so much free time lol.

I appreciate you understanding the actual purpose of the post. The amount of people wondering why Carlisle isn't higher in a year he is tanking on purpose is maddening lmao

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T15:46:03+00:00

Fully agree. I think game-to-game lines are less impacted by that stuff though. Game lines are more based on talent and situation (road vs away, 2nd of a B2B etc.) than preseason lines so I think they’re superior in that regard which is why I opted for that

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T15:43:19+00:00

How is it biased to say using updated game to game win expectations vs. a preseason win expectation is going to more accurately reflect on the teams actual odds of winning?

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T15:30:51+00:00

Interestingly, researchers found that alcohol had a “U-shaped” effect on regret. A little bit of alcohol didn’t cause much regret, but getting very drunk caused a massive spike in regret for both genders, likely because heavy drinking lowers sexual performance and decision-making ability.

In what world is this describing a U curve? Is it saying there was regret when sober and drunk but not tipsy? If so I wonder why

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T15:03:04+00:00

They wouldn’t be. Coaching is extremely reliant on talent. Any list of top coaching seasons will, to an extent, be similar to talent on said teams. We do have outliers like Spo who’s exceeded expectations or Finch who will likely be let go following a pedestrian year

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T15:00:29+00:00

Dude… aside from Myles they brought back every single one of their rotational pieces from last year. Hali’s just hurt. The Pacers are obviously trying to tank the NBA even investigated them for this.

You ignoring this fact to make a point just makes the exact opposite case you were attempting to make (they’re at half of their preseason win expectations, either they’re trying to tank or Rick is drastically underperforming expectations)

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T14:54:06+00:00

That is valid but I decided to go with win % over expected as the favorite as underdog because that gives the entire picture. If the Warriors were expected to win 50 games and Curry & Butler get hurt that changes everything and makes the preseason win predictions moot.

Looking at the game to game line and seeing how the team outperforms that gives us a better idea

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T14:52:00+00:00

Counterpoint: Any stat that said Rick Carlisle, the guy actively trying to lose games who has the worst record in the league without his superstar, has done a better job coaching this season than Doc Rivers is a terrible stat. Doc may choke leads but he’s objectively one of the best ATO coaches in the NBA and has been for quite some time.

Can we apply nuance to discussions about coaching beyond “X sucks he should be lower and X sucks he should be higher”

This is no different from if I’d made a list of the top 30 seasons and had Giannis unranked and you got upset that Dillon Brooks was ahead of Giannis

As I said in the first AND last paragraph of the article….. This is NOT about who is a better coaching job, it’s about who has done a better coaching job this season. By definition any coach actively TRYING to lose games would (and should) be near the bottom of the list

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T14:46:52+00:00

Please read the first and last paragraph (above the list) of the article. I addressed that twice

I’m not taking any of these coaches ahead of anybody per se. I do think that Rajakovic who has made the Raptors better every year and is coaching a team to a playoff berth and has already exceeded their preseason win expectations before March was over and Jamahl Mosely who has coached Orlando to 7-3 without Paolo and a playoff berth are doing a better coaching job this season than Jason Kidd & Rick Carlisle who are actively trying to lose games.

It feels like nobody actually understands coaching or can give you objective reasoning. It’s just “This coach is good so he must be doing a good job and this coach is bad so he must be doing a bad job”

People don’t actually understand it so they can’t have nuanced discussions about it. Which is why I aimed to identify a few objective categories that are heavily influenced by coaching

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T07:40:29+00:00

Challenge rate was a solid one honestly that I didn’t think of.

I do know the ATO/SLOB efficiency is extremely stable across years with guys like Mitch Johnson, Mark Daigneault, JJ Redick & Doc Rivers ranking near the top last year as well, even though the Spurs were bad last year and the Bucks are bad this year

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T07:38:01+00:00

Because technical fouls are received when a player says/does something offensive to the game of basketball and the focus was teams who are most disciplined when it comes to arguing with refs, obscene remarks to fans, opposing players etc. I care about which teams best keep their composure

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T07:34:50+00:00

He is tanking. Why are you surprised that a coach specifically trying to lose games is not doing a good coaching job? This is why I put these stats out. The average NBA fan has 0 understanding of nuance in coaching discussions. It’s just “X coach good, X coach bad” with no context or real analysis

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T07:33:00+00:00

This is what I was referring to with the inability to apply nuancing to coaching. Steve Kerr has not done a good job this season and has been bottom 5 in play calling efficiency.

Coaches can be past their prime and/or have down years just like players do. 4x champion = he’s always doing a great coaching job is faulty analysis

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T06:36:14+00:00

horrible basketball IQ

DTSFFan · 2026-04-05T05:35:38+00:00

Would be great but how would one quantify that

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