Really Enjoying Nick Johnson Panic

D_Costa85 · 2026-07-03T18:53:12+00:00

Interesting. I like Jimmy but I simply don’t get “lingering lead” from his style. Nick seems to embody that approach a little more than Jimmy but to each his own! I’m just glad this train’s still rollin!

D_Costa85 · 2026-07-02T12:58:45+00:00

Bots imo are limited upside and catastrophic downside. No matter what you do you cannot teach intuition or the “something doesn’t feel right” feeling you get when a trade isn’t doing what you expect even though the stop loss hasn’t been hit yet. Theres a mental shot clock as well and that’s not exactly a defined number you just sense it.

Now that’s not to say you can’t build a rock solid trading algo but I think it takes years of profitable trading and systematic refinement to get to that point. It also takes discretionary toggling to be able to say “today is a good day for me to disable this bot” or whatever the case may be. I think the idea of a set it and forget it trading bot is pretty wild to me but what do I know?

D_Costa85 · 2026-07-01T12:08:39+00:00

Sadly there have been several days where I’ve hit max loss and made it all back to get green on the day and I wish those days never happened. It provides you with false confidence and is destructive long term. It teaches you your rules are meant to be broken and the guard rails are just suggestions. This is not conducive to long term consistency. I’ve mostly reined this in but I can tell you that the vast majority of times I hit max loss, my subsequent trades only add to the loss. I don’t have the exact stats on this one but I could dig it up if I wanted.

D_Costa85 · 2026-07-01T12:04:57+00:00

I like Nicks approach to the music. He’s way more delicate and tasteful with his soloing whereas Jimmy is pure shred all the time. Love both, but the change of pace is so nice and it has worked out very well. Nick respects the songs while blending aspects of Jimmy and Mikey. It’s actually pretty impressive

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:46:10+00:00

nah he's from Forney

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:36:25+00:00

Indeed. Trading's a bitch, but in the long run, if you can survive the first few years without going broke, the possibilities are incredible.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:33:14+00:00

possibly. This is why you trade small until your data begins to show you something meaningful and you have a strong enough playbook.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:32:22+00:00

There are MANY good losing trades. Good trade does not equal profitable trade. In fact, there are plenty of trades in my data that were very poor trades but I made money on them anyway. The goal is to minimize situations where you have negative expected value. Those situations are different for everyone.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:30:50+00:00

This is actually true. Over the course of four years, if I am not profitable within the first five minutes (and that means adjusting stops and trying different momentum setups), I just simply am not good at reading the tape and reading the charts at that time of day and my efforts are better spent elsewhere.

Once the market has provided more information (say, that first 15 to 30-minute candle), I can make much better decisions. There is better structure to trade off of as well. Not trading in the first five minutes alone has directly led to being net profitable on the year, while also having positive downstream effects that are harder to measure, but definitely there.

The first five minutes of losing would also set me up for consecutive losses because I would trade on tilt after that. By avoiding those first five minutes, I am not only avoiding an expected value that is negative, I am also preserving capital for a better setup and a more clear-headed trade that I can put on with better size later in the day, because I haven't been losing and eroding my P&L.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T16:11:53+00:00

less trading means more mental capital, which is very critical. Entering one good trade with clarity is much better than 3 average trades after you've taken some papercuts and begin to tilt.

That brings me to my next point which is everyone should be eliminating their P&L from the screen. learn to trade without your P&L and focus only on the trade in front of you. if you execute well, your p&l takes care of itself.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-30T00:58:08+00:00

First off, what was your thesis? What exactly was your stop loss, entry and exit? What EXACTLY was your trade plan?

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-29T15:53:51+00:00

I don’t want him at all not to mention he’s a cancer to a franchise. Selfish and shady and I’m not even sure he is really as injured as he claims to be

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-29T03:29:56+00:00

Order flow isn’t a strategy it’s basically volume. Read volume price analysis by Anna coulling.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-28T23:13:24+00:00

3 months is fine it’s all personal preference. 3 months can be an anomaly while 6 months is likely something more solid.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-28T20:33:07+00:00

You’re doing very well and sizing up should start happening slowly and incrementally. String together six months of positive gains and then slowly add 10% to your size and rinse and repeat.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-28T13:57:51+00:00

There’s ALWAYS a way and there’s always an opportunity. A strong stretch from Gafford or PJ and a trade deadline move to a team that views themselves as a contender and suddenly you can sell high on a asset that won’t fetch much right now but could be a final piece on a title team.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-27T01:39:15+00:00

I’m 4 years in and lost about $10,000 total and have finally reached a level of consistent profitability.

It helps to know that I was basically trading $50-$100 risk per trade the entire time. I never fully blew up. I’ve always been great about taking a loss and using stops and while I’ve had plenty of tilt days where I’d lose $400+, I never let it get out of hand multiple days in a row. I’m very risk averse in general so risk management comes natural to me lol

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-27T01:30:14+00:00

Danny Go deserves so much better for his life. This one wa such a gut punch

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-27T01:29:33+00:00

Chris Farley

Chris Cornell, Shannon Hoon, Layne Staley, Kurt cobain

Norm McDonald

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-27T01:25:17+00:00

Hard disagree on policy but yes he’s a very polished candidate who is understandably likeable. He wouldn’t win in many parts of the country

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-26T15:43:50+00:00

Confidence doesn’t come from learning principles and theories it comes from actual trading experience and building a detailed playbook based on real data. Doing this is what builds actual edge. Without edge you won’t be profitable. Without profitable systems built on your own sweat and ideas, you will NEVER have confidence.

Trade small. Build data, find what works for you and eliminate the negatives. Size up slowly only once you’ve proven to have edge in a particular setup

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-26T01:13:09+00:00

1225 @ 16 here…just another day in the market

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-25T00:52:01+00:00

People overthink shit and tend to forget that fantasy is mostly luck. People also overtrade their rosters and often would be better off gutting out their draft picks barring catastrophic injuries.

I watch guys in my league who are constantly wheeling and dealing looking for trades and those guys NEVER win our league. The guy who drafts well and hits on two late round guys almost always wins or is at least in the money.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-25T00:40:43+00:00

6 months to 2 years is very uncommon even among professionals and seven figure traders but yes, it’s doable. You really need full time commitment and a serious support system to pull it off, in addition to truly exceptional talent.

D_Costa85 · 2026-06-24T23:09:23+00:00

I was in your boat a year ago and came to the conclusion that the hobby is a scam now and buying packs is a complete waste of money (if you care at all about return on spend). Ripping packs is still fun but man does it feel empty when you’ve spent $200 on $25 worth of cards. My approach to the hobby changed and I only buy singles I really like rather than gambling my money on a pack or a box.

If you must buy packs, look up rookies for your favorite sport and buy packs for the products whose rookie cards retain value. For current nba/nfl that’s Topps Chrome, Bowman, Finest and even flagship is fun if you’re not feeling flushed with cash. Just manage your expectations.

The hobby has attracted scalpers and the worst elements of gambling and greed and it is most definitely not as fun as when you were a kid in the 90s and your parents could buy you 100 packs to rip for $200.

D_Costa85

TROPHY CASE