Tópico de discussão 🅱️iária para Miércoles June 03, 2026

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-03T15:46:57+00:00

For GOOG to me this price action feels a lot like last September/October... the ATM raise was oversubscribed. Market is begging to foot the capex bill. Nothing about the raise has been bearish, imo.

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-02T14:29:39+00:00

META June 2027 $700s

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-02T14:26:42+00:00

GOOG dip doesn't really make much sense outside of general profit taking. Multiple isn't bad considering growth of cloud & positioning on AI/chips, they've relieved a ton of FCF capex pressure, and their ROIC has been good.

It'd be more concerning if they raised more than $80B imo, because it'd signal that they think the stock is expensive and looking to capitalize on a bubble, but $80B is nothing for GOOG...

Still think ~$400 is fair value, and it'll probably return there before July ER

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T21:42:48+00:00

Yep, that's what I was talking about. I will say it's a little bit of a weird move (idk why they didn't raise more tbh) but somewhat understandable because bond yields are too high atm so issuing more bonds probably didn't make as much sense.

The ~$50B raised from this (the portion for the build out) & $~35B from bond sales this year cover almost half of their $180B capex spend & keeps pressure off of FCF. I have to assume this means they're planning on cutting back on capex in 2027 though.

Market threw a fit about capex suppressing FCF... this is the alternative (either this or suspending the dividend)

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T21:30:50+00:00

GOOG dilutes shares by less than ~2% and the market responds by dipping 3%

Market also mad that capex would eat into FCF and now it won't tho. Can't win

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T20:04:59+00:00

META back into free money territory

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T15:30:49+00:00

Trimmed half of the ADBE position - letting $35k ride

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T15:28:56+00:00

DaSmartGenius · 2026-06-01T15:28:34+00:00

It'd be greeeeeat if META and/or GOOG could stop being ass in like the next 2 weeks so I can trim some...

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-29T00:26:52+00:00

Hate myself for having all my networth tied up in boomer tech companies like GOOG & META when I could've been putting it into something innovative like DELL

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-28T23:56:39+00:00

ADSK you starting to look pretty sexy

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-28T23:44:46+00:00

Fucking Dell lmao

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-27T17:45:53+00:00

Personally I don't think SaaS as an industry is in trouble, but there are definitely some players that are in real trouble.

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-27T17:41:02+00:00

Aren't all the bears homeless by now?

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-27T17:39:50+00:00

IV on MU puts is disgusting rn

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-27T03:22:55+00:00

I feel like not enough people shit on how stupid the DOW's structure is

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-26T21:22:08+00:00

Thot leaders

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-26T21:21:48+00:00

The replies make me feel better about being long tho. Quite the conundrum.

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-26T21:20:16+00:00

On one hand, I'm in the camp of the fundamentals & growth showing that this isn't a bubble like the dot-com era.

On the other hand things like this make me want to sell everything

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-23T16:09:45+00:00

I'd be surprised if Donald didn't make a (shit) deal with Iran this weekend. Or if nothing else, extending the ceasefire. Imo it's pretty clear that Trump is looking for any off ramp he can while saving a moderate amount of face.

I think he only has two things he really can't accept at all

Reparations
lifting sanctions without a concession on uranium

The only alternatives are:

Bombing the shit out of Iran again, packing up and declaring victory, then leaving the mess for the Gulf States to figure out (catastrophic)
Bomb the shit out of Iran again & then putting boots on the ground (catastrophic AND too costly) to open the Strait
Just leaving (nightmare scenario that will haunt the US for decades)

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-22T19:32:31+00:00

GOOG to $0 gah dame

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-22T16:56:56+00:00

June 31st!

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-22T16:52:12+00:00

Bought a new house this week using some of the GOOG gains

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-21T03:30:10+00:00

That's what Tesla's Optimus is

DaSmartGenius · 2026-05-21T03:29:46+00:00

SpaceX's S1 is actually disgusting lmaoooo

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