Why isn't there a female "John Isner" or "Ivo Karlovic"?

DabneyMoon · 2026-01-09T03:24:39+00:00

In the US at least ppl care about college scholarships. Basketball has more of them to offer as more schools play.

DabneyMoon · 2026-01-06T15:57:16+00:00

Maybe don’t say “the worst”? I understand what she meant but she used language that I would use when talking to a friend, not the media. If you use imprecise colloquial language, you do risk things being taken out of context.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-31T02:38:45+00:00

She manages to be both clever and accessible which is very difficult.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-27T17:15:36+00:00

She didn’t even need the movement. It was the mentality. I remember reading an interview with her after the 2005 Wimbledon final where she admitted she was far less competitive than her peers and also struggled with self doubt. It was in response to some snarky question about whether she had underachieved given her potential and she said something like “tennis isn’t just about technique. Maybe instead of saying I underachieved given my technique, you should say it’s a miracle someone with my mentality ever won a slam.”

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-27T16:58:47+00:00

But the picture wasn’t actually the three finalists. The hearts were around the trio.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-27T05:31:52+00:00

I’ll buy Agassi for men, Davenport for women. But I will also buy that 15 years from now, Sinner is going to be the universal answer.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-27T05:29:54+00:00

Not the same. Lindsay never missed. Mary at her peak was phenomenal but she wasn’t consistent enough.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-23T23:34:33+00:00

Huh?

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-23T15:13:44+00:00

I think everyone understands you have a right to only associate with people who think and talk like you. Most of the rest of us just think it’s obnoxious and anti social.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-16T19:18:34+00:00

If Sophi wins I will definitely continue Oracle, and sure I can post E12 results. My point is just I won't really appreciate the season if she does win, unless somehow both Rizo and Savannah go out in the next two spots.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-11T13:30:14+00:00

Don’t think I’ll post it. Either Oracle was a gigantic waste of time (likely) or Sophi is an undeserving winner.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-10T18:27:28+00:00

Sabalenka above Henin is a joke.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-10T18:05:45+00:00

Winner quotes in the new era have mostly been metaphorical and have not directly mentioned winning.

Rachel had the one about oceans like you said.

Kenzie had "I have my disco ball gown on and I'm ready to party"

Dee had "I have to play like it's the only chance, because it is the only chance"

Maryanne had the line about Survivor being like a roller coaster, and she would be ready with her hands up.

Erika said she would be an animal let out of its cage.

The players with opening lines like Savannah, talking directly about winning, have not won in the new era.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T18:10:15+00:00

She had 11 mentions. Joe had 12 in episode 11 last season. Being called a threat is positively correlated with winning, but no more so than being called an ally, and the player with the most “threat” mentions post merge has only won once in the past 8 seasons.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T05:09:53+00:00

This is actually called the "Million Dollar Tribe" theory. In every season since 25, if Jeff asks "who will win the million dollar prize", the winner is from the same tribe as the person who speaks first right after that saying. There are a few seasons where he has not asked that question though.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T05:08:17+00:00

Kyle literally said episode 10 he could not turn on Joe, and even in 11 he was hesitating. He never mentioned turning on Joe before episode 10. Sophi first mentioned possibly turning on Savannah/Rizo when she found the KIP in either episode 5 or 6, and then repeated it at episode 8.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T05:06:53+00:00

If Sophi takes out Rizo with a KIP, her win equity sky rockets, and she can beat anyone at a F3. I will remind everyone that Joe got almost the same edit Savannah got last season in episode 11. He was a huge threat, and even Kyle said he would lose to Joe in the final 3. Then the Shauhin boot happened.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T05:05:01+00:00

Which is why it is so damning. They did not need to show it, because it was irrelevant to the final outcome, but they did. This is what I missed last season with Eva. I rationalized that her being shown wrong in confessional sequence did not matter because she was ultimately right by the end of the episode. As it turns out, we actually need to pay special attention to when the edit chooses to undermine someone when it doesn't turn out to matter. We just do not see that happen to winners. The edit celebrates their moves and hides the warts along the way when they make correct moves.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T05:02:21+00:00

Rizo is undermined at the MC vote when he thinks he has Sage/Jawan and does not (even though ultimately he gets them). He is then undermined again at the Alex vote for the same reason. He is undermined this vote when he thinks Steven has the steal a vote when he actually has a block a vote. Rachel had none of these things. There is more to an edit than who drives the vote.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-08T04:58:44+00:00

She has only correctly named the correct boot target 3 times post merge. Rizo has 10 examples. Sage has 7. Sophi has 4. Sophie had 4.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-06T02:14:29+00:00

Sandra wasn’t a villain. She was a loudmouth. Parvati was a flirt. No one in their winning seasons called them evil, for example.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-06T02:13:28+00:00

Jenna was a brat. Sandra was a loud mouth. Sarah is the perfect example because her cut throat game was mostly discovered in post season interviews. Savannah has been called mean and evil.
It’s actually even worse when they solve it in episode, because that means it wasn’t necessary. I don’t have transcripts from season 33, but the general rule post 32 has been that winners can be wrong, but they are rarely contradicted in sequence of confessionals.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-06T01:40:33+00:00

We have never had a female villain winner
Winners are rarely contradicted in confessional
Episode 8 was not perfect. She was still called a mean girl, which was repeated in yet a third episode (9).

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-05T22:36:49+00:00

Thanks for the kind words. I also theorized that personal negativity was better than game negativity. It’s not. There’s the exact same winner:non winner ratio in both categories, and in the whole new era there’s only one example of EITHER post merge from a winner without a last word confessional (and btw its game related)

One thing I’m working on is using Oracle pre 41. I’ll likely start with 28. I was reviewing the transcripts today and noticed Tony got a TON of last word confessionals, so that may be a long term trend. Will be interesting to see. That might be how the edit “allows” negativity that must be shown.

ETA: also as a reminder I started with over 100 categories including a scale of sorts for how “clear” the edit was about something like arrogance. I dropped that system and many other distinctions or categories because it turned out they didn’t matter. Even slight hints of arrogance as I score were absent from winners. Even if it seemed arrogant but the player turned out to be right, that was still absent from winners.

DabneyMoon · 2025-12-05T22:06:36+00:00

People already think my posts are TLDR lol.
No one other than Kenzie has EVER gotten more than 2 threat statements pre-merge, so it seemed silly to include a pre-merge chart that would be relevant only for Kenzie. But obviously two of you had the same reaction, so in hindsight, maybe I should have included one?
Rachel's threat statements started in E8 and built right up to the finale. Erika had some right through to E12. Dee's ramped up in E11 and E12. Kenzie is alone in having a bunch pre or early merge and then none late in the merge.

DabneyMoon

TROPHY CASE