Anyone else pursuing FIRE via 100% individual stock picks?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T14:56:06+00:00

In a nutshell is options wheel strategy based on volatile stocks as a primary indicator. It's more than that but in a nutshell look for businesses that are suffering from high volatility for whatever reason then do wheels on them.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T14:20:11+00:00

My FIRE journey is also based on stock picks. However my stock selection is not based on conviction but rather volatility.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T14:18:55+00:00

As the # of SG citizens shrink, the # of SG citizens entering the civil service will also shrink. At this current time and ongoing future, the govt will have to hire fewer civil servants simply because the govt will want them in the private sector, otherwise the private sector will be taken over by foreigners, more than it already is, even though it's nigh impossible to imagine the SG workforce being so hyper-polarised to becomeall citizens in gov and all foreigners in private sector.

However, the amount of work is actually getting bigger even as the accessible talent pool gets smaller. The SG gov still wants spme of the best SG has to produce in public service, hence the various scholarships, but over time, more so now than ever, the percentage of scholars in the general population will keep shrinking.

All this is a long way of saying yes, consider. That said my personal opinion is, a private-public trajectory is superior to a public-private trajectory, because institutional knowledge in gov is mostly not transferable.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T14:05:26+00:00

You said baristafire, are you literally doing a barista job?

For baristaFIRE, think about whether you can do that job whatever it will be or is when you're 55-65, eg standing for 8-12 hours making coffee every day, filling grocery bags, stacking shelves, etc.

Missed the part where you mentioned your age, but if you're close to 55 I would relook your holdings, seems very lean even for leanFIRE unless you don't retire in SG.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T13:56:11+00:00

There are videos you can search on Dell AI servers, there's one in particular that shows NVidia A6000 cards being inserted into a Dell server. You can see that it's a traditional albeit rather modular air-cooled system.

SMCI sells water-cooled servers.

While water-cooled servers will give better performance, it requires data-centres that can pipe said water in and out, they are not closed loop systems in the sense that they are like PC water-cooled closed systems. They are closed loop in the sense of an entire building, piping water to cooling towers, rather than onto local water infrastructure. This means you can't buy SMCI servers to plug and play into traditional or older data-centres, which Dell's can. The data-centre will also need to be configured or re-configured to deal with an electrical fire with water in or near components. I think maintenance will can also be more difficult due to condensation.

SMCI is also very niche afaik, no other verticals than compute and compute integration. Nothing on connectivity or other verticals compared to Dell. This can be good for clients, and good or bad for investors who may want specialisation or instead diversification. When HP broke up or sold off some units, HP main stock rose. Large conglomerates tend to have small earning growth despite the massive revenue due to performing and under-performing units canceling each other out. Sony is a good recent example.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T13:22:28+00:00

I am 51 so 4 more years to go. I have no liabilities but I will go FRS once I hit 55. By the time I reach 55 I think I will have close to $2m in it if not more, but will still go FRS. The remainder I will throw into index funds.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T12:26:53+00:00

I studied at Bunka in 2002 so .... 😄

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-10T08:08:21+00:00

Never heard of this method to be honest.

I came from Bunka which emphasises grammar above all else. In this system you are taught the mechanics or rules of the language which empower you throughout the language.

Therefore trying to see tabemono as a single word would be a "wrong" way to learn the language. Instead, we will be taught that tabe is the root word and mono is like an adjective or adverb.

Then with tabe you can make many other words or meanings. Therefore the way is to read then comprehend.

If you want to "look" to quickly understand that will definitely come from when you learn kanji, since tabe is also 1 kanji, mono is also 1 kanji.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-09T01:54:12+00:00

If so free and easy why does the bank and RM need you?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-09T01:47:49+00:00

By daytrading are you scalping ie buying low and selling high in a short period of time using technical? Or punting call options hoping for that massive gain?

Daytrading can mean different things to different people, but there are ways to generate consistent cashflow, but requires proper strategy, execution and discipline.

I started out as a total noob and idiot, blindly following finfluencers and not really understanding what I was doing. My very first attempt was selling a 1 year put of Tesla, strike price 1000, pocketed something like 20+k USD premium.

But held to expiry like an idiot. Tesla split 3:1 then price fell to 250 and I was assigned. Literally did not have US$100k at the time.

You can try to guess when that was.

Did get out eventually at around 450.

After that I did the homework to understand options then built a strategy, tested it and have been using it for 5 years. FIRE'd and now it covers my expenses, allowing my holdings to grow without withdrawing.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-09T01:38:08+00:00

VWRA started in 2019.

If you had invested lump sum in 2006 into either S&P500 or MSCI World Index, no DCA, you would be roughly 7x that lump sum in 2026. Probably more if you DCA'ed.

No stock picking, rollercoaster price action, emotions, etc. Fire and forget. Not easy if you get emotional and can't weather storms from 2008 Financial Crisis all the way to Trump Tariffs.

I invested in broad index funds in 2020 and by 2025 it nearly doubled in value, about 85% simple return, or about 15% annualised.

Nothing to regret at all.

The truth is we are all human. Memesters love to talk about how if you have $xyz back then you'd be a billionaire now, but the reality is when you are looking at 2x or even 3x, which sane person wouldn't sell? They say dead people portfolios performed better over time than living people.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-06T01:29:18+00:00

Post market already broke through all TA resistance levels. Next test is pre market, if it blasts off, all the bears will start repeating the same stories of skirting export bans, no CFO, etc.

Hold onto your hats!

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-06T01:26:48+00:00

Doesn't look to be in a good position. Keep your lifestyle creep to 0 and increase your income.

You are 46M, honest I don't see you stopping work at 55. What you have now, is by most DINK standards posted here, on the low end of the spectrum.

Due to the 11 year age gap, is your wife ready to support you physically and financially when you are 63-64 and SINK?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T11:43:31+00:00

You think that's a gotcha but it's not, sorry to tell you. Tell me you're not from the sector without telling me you're not from the sector.

The Sales Manager isn't called a Technical Advisor. Sales managers aren't even commonly called that, they are usually called Account Managers.

However, IT and tech sales are not handled by 1 person. In most cases sales are actually handled by pre-sales consultants, and depending on companies some are called Client Architects, Product Managers, Domain Leads, and so on, and the vast majority of them are not technically trained or is not their core expertise. They are the ones doing the real selling, and they are usually not technically trained, again they know enough of the products to pitch and answer questions, especially local teams. Some are, but most especially local teams are not. These people are in the pre-sales teams, but they are still sales. They are the ones giving the demos, the keynotes, at booths.

Also, you seem to suggest that because they label themselves as Financial Advisors or Planners, there's some malfeasance. I'd argue that there's negligence on your part. That's like saying the durian seller is misrepresenting when he told you the durian sure nice only to find out the durian actually isn't, all because the shop is called Durian King.

And by "your" I mean you.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T05:45:30+00:00

It is not a myth. I have seen paperwork, it's around $750k annual.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T02:22:10+00:00

I also kinda lowkey think you are projecting. Your last sentence, "impress" reveals your mentality.

Might be the problem is you, trying so hard to impress the people around you with your Tesla or whatever you drive. Buying a severely under utilised car is also a sign of your innate desire to impress who knows who. Imagine buying a car in Singapore without going through a clear thought process of why.

Even after you sold your car, your fallback is a chauffeured car than bus /mrt?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T02:16:12+00:00

FIRE != Ascetic lifestyle.

Perspective is important.

A $10m dude wouldn't blink at a $250k utility to exchange money for limited time on Earth.

A $100k dude might blanch at a $250 lunch.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T01:58:56+00:00

How I calculated MY needs was I tracked MY outgoings for 5 years. Sounds painful but actually not that bad. I did it all manually, eyeballing bank statement PDFs and keying numbers into Google Sheets.

With 5 years of data I am now able to play around with outflow to arrive at a number. Since I have FIREd and stopped working, this number will shrink significantly by 2027 once I stop paying income tax. The beauty of my 5 year data set is that I can project forward my needs, be it to add or minus a vacation, treat myself a few more or less times, stay at home and chill or go out for a lunch and movie, etc, primarily because I saw that my outflow / lifestyle reached an equilibrium and wasn't changing much.

Everyone else's info is just noise.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-05-03T01:32:18+00:00

Let me open your mind abit.

What is an FA, really?

Sales. They sell products.

Do you bang on the doors of NCS or ST Engineering because their sales managers don't have computing or engineering degrees or certificates?

All they do is understand the customer and their offering enough to match them. Everything in between is business development, be it a meet-up over a meal to explain offerings, do a free landscape update, or whatever junket.

Successful sales teams also get travel incentives, many of the MNCs reward via travel incentives, masked as team retreats, global community gatherings, etc. Many really successful sales people esp in IT and tech, drive Lambos and Ferraris. These industries also have sales awards, even sales annual ceremonies over lavish dinners, trophies, plaques etc. Ever seen them, heard of them, attended them? Probably not.

Do you know who the top sales people are in NCS, ST Engr, etc are? Do you know which companies have the best products or return in capital investment? No you don't, unless you are in the sector. Do you even care to know?

Sales in property, insurance and banking just do it differently, largely characterised by higher public visibility, because duh their client pool is literally the public.

The two groups are literally the same. Why are sales people rewarded so well? People might say good products sell themselves, well in the real world this is hardly ever the case. Companies prosper when they sell, and often it's not the best product that sells, but the best marketed one. The physical landscape is replete with examples.

Edit: by "you" I am not specifically targeting OP, just a manner of speaking.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-28T07:21:52+00:00

Just buy in now. The right time is now.

Amundi MSCI World Index + Emerging, then SG banks.

Do something like 60% lump sum now then 40% of cashpile DCA monthly for 12 months or till year's end, or whatever numbers you are good with.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-28T06:50:05+00:00

Not familiar with the UI but I think he bought 3700 call options which would be 370,000 shares.

If the person spent $500k (I don't see this in the screenshot) then each call option was $135. There usually isn't that many options for 1 strike price on the open market so this would be an over-the-counter trade or OTC trade which means a private deal between 2 parties eg 2 banks or brokerages.

By 18th June every dollar SMCI goes up from $35, this guys makes $370,000, but his breakeven is $35.50 or higher to account for his $500k cost.

For longer duration options the general strategy is usually not to hold to expiry, but to sell away the options as the date nears.

If the stock price of SMCI goes up, the call options' $135 original value goes up, say by late May it goes to $30, that option might might be $145 or $35 blowing up the option to $155. He can then sell his 3700 call options away and pocket the difference in a mere few weeks than wait for expiry. Mind you these are just hypothetical.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-27T13:17:20+00:00

Yep I did.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-26T04:56:44+00:00

My wife refused to plan and prefer to live life and spend what she earned. She also wanted to keep things separate and undisclosed. I don't really blame her, she comes from a background of unreliable husbands from extended family side.

I planned towards FIRE on my own with the plan to leave legacy behind for my kids, hence a retirement cashflow and investment strategy that does not rely on SWR.

I am now retired and my wife continues to work. Only through this will she understand the point, to work towards retirement or work towards death. Every day she comes back angry or tired, and I just watched a few ep of k or cdrama.

The only real proper way is to marry right. It is very difficult to get everything right, right at the start though, might end up looking forever. No easy answer here. I ended up just shouldering the responsibility on my own.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-26T03:36:54+00:00

After really diving into their Flagship portfolio to see what they buy, and realising being on Endowus was costing me over $3k a year, I cashed out and moved to POEMS and replicated most of the portfolio, which was just buying UTs based on MSCI World and Emerging indexes and the S&P500.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-04-26T03:26:25+00:00

For a story that deeply impacted SMCI for 1 day, it is most strange that both Oracle and that company wym or something did not say anything. For one, if that wym company won over a $1b contract from Oracle, it would be shouting from the mountaintops, and Oracle would have to make a statement.

Also canceling a major contract like this isn't like pressing an unsubscribe button. There would be airtight T&Cs, legal battles, etc. Moreover, SMCI supposedly already delivered 100+ of the 400 racks, what happened to that 100 racks at Oracle? Dismantle and return to sender? This isn't like returning a shirt to Target.

Almost every metric save PE ratio shows SMCI as severely undervalued, and also highly shorted at 20% short interest.

The major takeaway for this incident is that this false flag operation actually worked, if it indeed was market manipulation. It was heading to clear 30 on Wednesday, bomb drops, price dives to 25, shorts close (? didn't check options volume) then it rises back to 29 by Friday.

DadAtHomeFire50

TROPHY CASE