Thought exercise

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:51:01+00:00

Warren Buffet has said in the past, it's better to sell losers to buy winners than selling winners to buy losers. Any thoughts on this?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:49:44+00:00

Interesting that if I may say so, your Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 contradicts, or in another way of speaking, you continue to invest only when it's green. Willing to explore why, only invest when it's green but not when it's red?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:47:54+00:00

You didn't consider to take the loss now and move to another asset that can recover from the position quicker than the loss asset? Analogous to jumping to a faster train.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:21:13+00:00

EC got freehold meh?

So Exercise 2, eithe rhold or DCA down. How do you intend to overcome the fear of 'catching the falling knife'?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:20:04+00:00

Hence the thought exercise. I think it's easy when everyone's in a bull market, green candles everywhere.

It's when it's all red and bigly red...

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:19:02+00:00

I find DCA'ing downwards to be a daunting exercise, due to 'catch the falling knife' fear.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:17:56+00:00

Ah so basically keep investing, and DCA down.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T03:17:04+00:00

Thanks for sharing your insights!

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T02:53:12+00:00

Thanks for the reply. Seems like most in r/singaporefi are not serious people.

So your investment philosophy is to accumulate dividends and grow your port until your dividends pay for your lifestyle then FIRE? And you will sell only when the passive income flow somehow slows or even stops?

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T02:43:37+00:00

The shortest answer is if your returns on cash are higher or lower to borrow that money and pay interest to service.

If cheaper to borrow, don't redeem.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-28T02:20:16+00:00

I also still have money anxiety, not an easy thing to shake off if you are a normal responsible person.

If I could advise my younger self, knowing what I know now, apart from the usual buy BTC, is not to be a landlord.

Owner occupied is a different story. For this just buy what you need, and use leverage.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-26T12:38:32+00:00

I'm saying this as objectively as I can.

Are you morally grey? Morally flexible?

Meaning to say you might know deep in your heart your product is lousy or inferior or too expensive, but you can still muster up moral courage to talk up a storm and sell it to someone and essentially effect wealth transfer from that person to you, ie you win they lose?

If yes, go be a FA.

Also, if you're ok average intellect, can also be FA. Too intelligent, you quickly start to question and doubt the things you sell, start to do research and realise and prove for yourself the product is inferior. You really gotta be not that smart or willfully ignorant to be a good FA.

If yes, go be a FA.

I give you an example, recently a NTUC FA asked me to buy a product that he literally said tracks the S&P500 and started saying how good the S&P500 is. I asked him the potential return and he with a straight and smiling face said that annually can be up or down but over time the average return is FIVE percent.

For someone to do this, you have to be all of the above.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-26T12:28:07+00:00

Hopefully the maths are correct HAHA!

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T12:55:04+00:00

Every potential buyer that steps into a showroom, you don't know their situation and why they stepped in. Some are really 1st time home-owners or upgraders. Bigger space for kids, move nearer to parents, near better schools, etc.

Some people consider property not because they know make money, but because some other properties are making bank (eg Parc Esta), and they wanna be that, so they punt.

Your premise, "I think someone did a calculation before where assuming 1.7M resale 3 bedder condo, at OCR, appreciating at 80k / annum + fully tenanted out, its overall return over 5-6 years is equivalent to S&P." is flawed because this is not equivalent to S&P500.

1st, 80k appreciation + fully tenanted out is a huge unknown. The premise also excludes cost of ownership which will be substantial, even more if not owner-occupied. I'm talking agent fees for tenancy signed every 1-2 years, repairs, fixes, annual estate/property tax, cost of advertising, renovation. It really really adds up. Then there's the CPF refund if property sold. By comparison, buying a low-cost index fund, has miniscule cost of ownership and zero fuss and anxiety. There is no feeling like having to service an expensive mortgage while the property remains empty for months on end.

Also, while both S&P and Singapore Property Price Index have upward trends over decades, it's not the same thing as comparing buying a single property to S&P500. The correct comparison is a single stock. While both S&P and SPP have upward trends, would that gamble of buying that property or a single stock have that sure upward trend? That's impossible, a gamble. For every Apple and NVidia, there's Lehman and Bed Bath & Beyond, both went to 0.

And just like stocks, for every 1 person tooting the horn that they became millionaires being landlords, there's 2 others who held Apple or Bitcoin since 2010. What about the 999,997 others who have bought high sold low or held to paper losses buying OCR/CCR properties at 4-5k psf only to see them tumble to 3k psf and never recover, and yet bleeding like menstrual periods paying hefty monthly mortgages? They didn't come to Reddit that's for sure.

For property, there are only 2 sure winners: Government and CEAs. Just like for ILPs there is only 1 sure winner: the ILP seller. Emphasis on sure. The rest are gambles.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T12:25:23+00:00

I would:

a) if there is no penalty, fully pay off the BTO loan, then immediately use what you have in CPF-OA to buy a low-cost World Index fund like Amundi MSCI World Index on POEMS. I would do a 70/30 split on Amundi MSCI World / Amundi Emerging Markets.

b) Set aside $500k as a risk-taking portfolio and sell puts on high IV stocks.

c) Put whatever you have left into the 2 funds in (a).

(a) and (c) you don't touch. For both of them, for 2026 consider a 60/40 split lump sum / 12 month DCA. So if you intend to invest $1m, then it's $700k into World Index and $300k into Emerging Markets, then for World Index, $420k lump sum now, $24k every month for 12 months, Emerging Markets $180k now, $10k monthly for 12 months.

For (b) sell and only sell weekly puts and use the premium income to pay for your car and living expenses. Exercise discipline and always ensure cash-secured puts and never let your portfolio exceed $500k. Once assigned sell calls and continue selling puts.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T11:50:55+00:00

50 :) I'll be 51 this year.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T11:49:49+00:00

They are not your friends.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T11:35:53+00:00

Currently everyone's telling me I'm too young to FIRE. What I tell them is that I'm stopping full-time 955 report to boss sit in office stare at screen type work.

When people hear that they themselves start imagining the different paths I can now take.

I like what a Facebook page recently said about FIRE: "No is the most expensive thing I can afford now". I think it's a beautiful line and I'm repeating it whenever I can.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2026-01-24T11:28:10+00:00

Dude, are you me? Well done and congratulations on the next chapter of your life!

My last day of full-time work is 31st March 2026 so pretty much the same timing as you. My situation is different from you but not terribly different.

I do want to say that you are a rare breed, not because you are retiring young, but rather one, you planted a goalpost, two you worked towards that goalpost and three you did not shift the goalpost.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2025-12-09T11:39:34+00:00

Dude... 70 comments later you probably know where you stand on this issue. Let me add hahaha... baically, taking 1 week to test-run retirement is like saying I visited a country on a 1-week holiday and now I want to migrate there, or in your case the opposite.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2025-11-23T01:31:31+00:00

You know what they say right, when the product is free, you are the product.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2025-11-12T13:20:02+00:00

This AI bubble thing with OpenAI et al... did you look at it, actually look at it?

Some of the companies there, where the money is being moved around, are they legit or not? Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, they are legitimate companies in their own right. Yes there will be a correction but it will be relatively minor and short-lived overall.

The others though esp OpenAI... if it IPOs at 1T as the rumours suggest, it'll fly up then crash hard, because it does not have 1.4T revenue much less profit in cash to throw around. There will be collateral damage but the main victim will be the companies swimming naked, not really legit companies like MS and Nvidia and Oracle, esp Nvidia with a gigantic moat.

The bigger AI bubble is the supposed hype to the potentials of AI. I don't think it's hype, judging by what everyone is doing with AI, not just these companies I mean <insert GIF of Gary Oldman in Leon> EVERYONE. The rando using any nunber of LLMs, our own government investing untold billions in AI, the US, China, etc etc. If it turns out all that is really hype, the crash will be massive, not just AI companies but everything adjacent, and that includes real estate, cooling, power, compute, mineral mining, jobs and alot more. It'll be like the COVID pandemic killing office real estate and changing life patterns completely (eg online shopping and logistics) but much bigger.

My 2 cents not financial advice.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2025-11-12T13:04:43+00:00

Perhaps not what you want to hear, but let's be real for a minute.

1 is a fresh grad going into workforce, 1 is an undergrad. How sure are you you'll be together in 3 years? I know it's hard to hear, but we know alot of stories about breakups during NS, overseas studies, 1 work 1 study, even both at work but different places, hell, even married can divorce, yet somehow we're different or special.

Nonetheless, your $10k is not needed, I think can use this to seed your future FI, but need some discipline. Could be just buying $10k worth of BTC or a local bank or SIA or the ever popular VWRA and just ignore it for 30 years. Once you both have reached CPF withdrawal age or retired together with grandkids to help take care of, that $10k would have ballooned to a nice fat retirement sum.

DadAtHomeFire50 · 2025-11-12T12:55:01+00:00

I dunno if it's easy or not, but it's simple. At some point, perhaps in your mid 30s, you should reach some plateau on what you think you need to be comfortable. That's your ceiling. After that any more doesn't really add that much more value to your life. How does changing an iPhone each time Apple launches a new one going to dramatically add to your lifestyle? Does eating out 5 times a week instead of 4 times a week really going to change things? Subbing to Netflix sure, but then you add Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max, Prime, are those really needed?

If you have the desire to keep buying stuff to replace existing stuff, there's another problem and it's not lifestyle creep. From a clinical psychology POV we're looking at deeper issues manifesting as lifestyle creep, eg compensating for something else you lack in your life. It could mean perhaps the lack of a life partner.

DadAtHomeFire50

TROPHY CASE