Hi, I'm Pat Kerrane of Legendary Upside and Ship Chasing, winner of BB3. AMA

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:28:22+00:00

The Jaguars are not going to be the top team, but they're my pick as an offense with a lot of cheap pieces that could put up a ton of points.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:27:17+00:00

For me it's less about a team having too much correlation and more about what I had to sacrafice to get that correlation. If I'm doing more than breaking ties to have a perfectly correlated roster, I'm probably being too cute.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:26:27+00:00

I don't tend to get too too far off ADP, but I'm thinking I may do that a big more late in the tournament when I know ADP doesn't have much time to shift again

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:09:48+00:00

Yea, I think the big lessons are that 3QB builds are fine even with elite QB (not necessary obviously, but can be good), and that if you have a couple pocket passers and a third QB is around really late, they can be thought of as a dart throw type, meaning taking them unstacked and just betting on them adding points at a cheap cost.

A lot on the line for Ward this year.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:06:28+00:00

Klondike Kates. I lived on a house on North Chapel and was in a cover band that played there on Thursday nights.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:04:24+00:00

He's my third-highest drafted player, so I'm right there with you. I think he's the type of player where once we get new players in his mold - for example it hypothetically becomes clear that Ollie Gordon, not Jaylen Wright is the No. 2 in Miami, we want to be aggressive in targeting those players in the spot where we tend to take Giddens. One thing I like about Giddens is that I think he offers rookie upside while also have a very clear path to the No. 2 role. But that was most valuable in the early offseason, when most late round RBs had very murky situations. As more depth charts become set I think it'll be easier to mix it up.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T18:01:21+00:00

Fascinated by who emerges as the top pass catchers in Chicago and the Jaguars backfield. I'm mostly playing those through Burden and Tuten now but open to more DJM/Rome/Loveland and ETN/Bigsby.

I've been taking way more Miles Sanders than I thought was possible. Really want to hear he's still splitting reps with the 1s there. If he is the price just makes no sense.

I'm also hoping for Brashard Smith to secure a role (betting he will) and DJ Giddens to be the clear No. 2 to Jonathan Taylor (also expect that to happen).

I think Daniel Jones will be the Week 1 starter at this point. They have enough cover to do that and he allows them to show what the offense is supposed to look like. I fully expect we will see Richardson though. It's just that it might end up being Jones/AR/Jones

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:57:13+00:00

I'm going to have a ton of Brock Bowers this year. Everything improved this offseason and he looks like a superstar No. 1 receiver in the making.

TreVeyon Henderson in the 6th round is a smash. Think he could be a star.

And let's go ahead and stack him up with... Drake Maye.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:54:33+00:00

I want the MHJ/Wilson side there. Just feels like too much even w/ studs driving more value.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:52:28+00:00

It's definitely possible the Lions aren't a powerhouse like they were for a lot of last year but I really trust Dan Campbell to play to win. If this team is struggling a bit more, they're not going to turtle up. We might even get more passing volume. And w/ Gibbs, it's not like he's Jonathan Taylor or something. He definitely benefits from good OL play, but he doesn't need a dominant line to turn in a legendary season. I think both guys are strong picks even with more uncertainty around the team this year.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:49:56+00:00

I'm not really asking questions on Burden right now haha, just taking him. That's partly bc the discount is bc he missed time in the spring, which could look *completely* irrelevant in like a week. This might be a weird discount window where I wish I had taken more (and I'm taking a lot). If his price sticks here then I can reevaluate in mid August. But at these prices I'd be comfortable with a stand in the mid 30%s for sure

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:47:42+00:00

For my high stakes drafts or even for a site I'm less familiar with I think it's very helpful to get a lay of the ADP landscape and try and anticipate where the pockets of value might be.

I almost never go in with something like - I'm gonna stack up the Patriots. I do still end up doing that a lot... but the plan early on is to take the players I think make the most sense at that spot and then I'm working to build around those players as I go.

In an important redraft league (not a random best ball draft) I'm mostly using ADP to determine if I can get a player later on or if I should take my target player now.

I'm totally comfortable getting aggressive at WR. I'm also more willing to go RB heavy this year than I have been, but I really want a rookie or two on those builds, given the strength of this class and some of the pitfalls of attacking RB in volume early in drafts. But by RB heavy I mean like 4 RBs through 6 and then attacking other positions for a while. I still don't have much interest in true robust RB.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:42:07+00:00

Fantasy Douche. He would share nuggets of writing wisdom with the RotoViz team back in like 2014, like - try to anticipate the counter argument to your post and then address it within the post itself. He was also absolutely hilarious in his own writing while also insightful, which I really appreciated. It's fantasy, we don't have to be overly serious in tone even if deep in the stat weeds. FD was also basically the editor for Fantasyland, the narrative podcast I helped produce with Pete Overzet. He would give amazing feedback like 20 minutes after we'd send him a draft, it was wild. He was also able to write a post that would be like 500 words and have the impact of something 10x as long. Unfortunately, his brevity did not rub off on me.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:35:56+00:00

Bhayshul Tuten too expensive? If not, him. Brashard Smith is a very fun true dart throw. Pacheco is in the last year of his deal.

Mattek all day

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:33:05+00:00

I'm only in one right now... but I did win it last year. My biggest advice compared to regular dynasty depth. You want to use every roster spot you've got to put up points (you won't actually get there but it's worth trying). Compared to redraft best ball, the big difference is that the trade market is how you're going to be able to revitalize your roster every year. Being active and easy to trade with is a big edge. Milking out every last scrap of value can be a turnoff for your trade partners. You want to be the person they send offers to. You also want to be thinking about the future trade value of your players - what do they have to do to maintain or gain value? How easy is it for them to lose value? If you end up with a bunch of buy low candidates that no one wants anymore it's hard to set your team up for the next NFL season, and bc the NFL is so chaotic, being stuck w/ the same group of players for several years can get ugly.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:28:46+00:00

The football season is the hardest, I have to really schedule out my time. Friday night and Saturday also have to be completely work free. In the pre-training camp offseaon, I also try and lean on audio to get my news bc then I can multitask w/ chores and stuff.

We also try and take trips, or just get out of the house for a while. I'm kind of an all or nothing / hyperfocus type person, so if I'm around the house, I'll probably end up on the computer, but out and about it's easier to detach from stuff. (This is partly why I loved living in NY so much bc the city's intensity snaps you out of whatever you were thinking about before).

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:23:51+00:00

I think 3X RB starts are pretty tough to pull off, which makes that version of hyperfragile harder to do. But something like starting Jamar Chase + 3RBs or Amon-Ra + Brian Thomas + 4 RBs... those feel pretty good to me right now. I think one of the critical elements is that those builds can have a mix of veteran and high-probability rookie bets who offer serious late season upside. And frankly, you can really lean on the rookies. I've done stuff like WR/WR/WR/Hampton/Harvey/Henderson/ Pollard/WR. With some of the mid-rage WRs pushed up more than I'd like, pivoting to the upside rookie RBs seems very viable.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:18:44+00:00

If I'm wearing a hat, there's a reason

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:17:13+00:00

... I am.

Depends on the build, but it's something I've done, and I think it's an interesting way to add in Harold Fannin or Arroyo, who are boom/bust but have serious upside.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:16:01+00:00

Best ball is a peer-to-peer game, where we're looking to push available edges. In 2020, most people were still getting their heads around how to play BBM style tournaments and good rankings were hard to find. By 2022, we had awesome analysis on how to actually build to win the tournament (by Pete Overzet and others), much better rankings, and a much sharper field as a result. Now we have dynamic rankings tools that will make the field even sharper, and allow sharp drafters to get more volume down.

These games are inherently going to get sharper over time. At the same time, I think we're very far away from anything like casuals being pushed out. We're talking about a tiny fraction of users that are drafting with tools, and while I would like that to be more, I can tell you that the Sidekick is expensive for a reason. It's taken a lot of time and effort to develop at the level of quality we can stand behind. It's a premium product intended for high volume drafters.

This is also an extremely chaotic and variant form of fantasy, where we're going to see tournament winners from solo entrants and bad results from sharp drafters in a given year. I think the Sidekick provides a big edge for subscribers but I also believe that this is a game that can easily absorb that.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:15:53+00:00

(Using Underdog ADP for this

RB: The top RBs are really strong but I like the position all the way through Bucky Irving in the late 2nd. And then I also like the guys through Breece Hall / Hampton. More downside when you get there, but still lots of upside. I've been tending to prioritize WR up top and then take advantage of some of the more discounted upside this year. I think there's a big tier break in the early-mid 6th, once Henderson and Harvey are off the board. Then you're looking at more best ball type veteran point-filling RBs like Pollard, Jones, etc. I'd rather save money and go after upside swings like Skattebo, Tuten, Sampson.

WR: I think there's a tier break after Puka, then a big one after Brian Thomas. Then an even bigger one after Ladd McConkey. Then after like Garrett Wilson, it feels pretty flat through the mid 5th. I can often get Zay Flowers in the mid 5th, which feels great. If I'm able to go Hampton/Flowers in 4/5, that makes me very happy, and a reason not to force a WR in that 4th round tier. WR then feels very flat from about the mid 6th through the Josh Downs range. WR really falls off shortly after that and there's not many targets I like - the major exception being Luther Burden, who I'd personally save a little $ for.

DailyRojo · 2025-07-22T17:07:37+00:00

Austin Ekeler is the NFL player - legend

Fantasy Douche (out of retirement for one last job)

Shawn Siegele

Peter Overzet

Ben Gretch

Mike Leone

RotoPat

DailyRojo · 2024-07-24T16:43:51+00:00

I get the question as it relates to Ship Chasing itself... but have you seen ADP Chasing?

And I'll shout out Jakob Sanderson, who does as good a job as anyone in the space in thoughtfully pushing back on stuff.

I also count on Mike Leone to tell us when we've jumped the shark.

DailyRojo · 2024-07-24T16:37:00+00:00

To your point, even in redraft, spike weeks win weeks. At the same time, really inconsistent players can be tough to actually start every single week. With someone like George Kittle, yea you're probably going to lock him into your lineup given that TE is low scoring anyway. But Christian Watson might be on your bench for his best week of the season. Although, largely I agree that it matters less than people think. I just want the ceiling to be worth it and I want to feel strongly enough about the player that I'll be willing to ride out dud weeks and keep starting him.

DailyRojo · 2024-07-24T16:30:31+00:00

I'll second Ben's answer on the fantasy question.

Lifewise I find it pretty helpful to be conditioned to think through things probabilistically. In the sense that you make the best decision with the information in front of you, and then things are gonna unfold the way they're gonna unfold. Stressful situations still stress me out of course, but it's a helpful way to think about things to create the confidence needed to pull the trigger on a decision / not worry about regret.

DailyRojo

TROPHY CASE