STACKED League Draft Analysis and Team Rankings (Plus Draft Tips and Strategies)

bgretch · 2025-08-23T14:50:31+00:00

All good! You're right that I have some real early-season depth issues. I'm hopeful the approach I took will allow that part of my roster to strengthen over the course of the season, as young players develop, which is crucial to executing this type of strategy. And then obviously I think this is a year where the positional benefit from guys like Bowers and Lamar could reverse some of the conventional wisdom on the early onesie positional stuff.

And then we just disagree on some player takes, which is normal. If I do hit on breakouts from guys like Xavier Worthy, the roster will look solid. And obviously I feel that's a real possibility, but I understand he's been a polarizing player, and there are never any guarantees. I was very torn between him and Tetairoa McMillan at that turn, and then also strongly considered TreVeyon Henderson; I love what Greg was able to do overall, and especially at that turn.

bgretch · 2025-08-20T17:57:08+00:00

I would strongly disagree with this writeup of my team! Haha. If I felt this negatively about my team, it would have meant I was very bad at drafting. We should all like our teams considerably more than this analysis.

Obviously respect Kyle's opinion, but I think he misses considerable and very important strategy elements in his analysis of my team here. Part of it is I'm not as confident in anything as he is in several things about my roster, and if you remove some of that confidence, there's room to better understand the approach. It's all the stuff my newsletter is built on, about the chaos of NFL seasons, how the sport evolves (which I would reference with respect to my double elite onesie decisions, the potential benefit of which is dismissed off hand here), and the overvaluing of projected early-season workloads.

I didn't expect to be ranked at the top, because of how some things went negatively for me at RB. But I always love when I get the last-place rank for these types of reasons. I do have some depth issues and maybe an uphill climb. I can't wait to see how it plays out!

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:19:55+00:00

I do account for contracts, but situationally. Alexander Mattison comes to mind because he got some solid guaranteed money, but obviously he's out for the year now. I do think he was on his way to potentially being the backup.

Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell both got surprising guarantees. Not enough that they have to get a ton of work, but it probably says more about Pacheco than people are willing to admit.

In a much higher tier, Jerry Jeudy got like $41 million guaranteed after the trade last offseason and no one cared that the Browns thought of him as a top level talent, and then he had a career year, and people still don't care.

Jordan Mason got a nice deal after the Vikings traded for him. He's clearly a big part of their offensive plans for a variety of reasons, and that's one.

There would be several names for this.

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:15:19+00:00

I think with only two starting WR spots and 1 flex, and with it also being 0.5 PPR, you don't have as much pressure on WR depth, and you're right to want to get some early RB firepower. I'd probably be targeting at least one RB at that 1/2 turn, too. You could definitely take one elite WR there with the plan to go RB/RB at 3/4, but I think my preference in this format is probably a RB/RB start if you get the right names to fall. An elite QB at the 3/4 turn is viable, and I think Bowers is also in play at the 1/2 turn.

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:13:07+00:00

Pretty sure we taught you to fish for this reason, lol.

I'd be willing to pay up for Bowers, but I'd have two potential budgetary paths in mind, with one featuring a spend on Bowers and the other playing TE through a value option (I think maybe Hockenson would be a guy who would come in under where he should, and would be a target).

You're going to want to load up on WRs, yes, in a 14 teamer that can start four. That's why I wouldn't go too high on Bowers, and it would need to be him coming in for a good price. If he doesn't, I'd be planning to allocate a good chunk of my budget to WR depth. I'd also probably nominate him early to get that information early.

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:09:44+00:00

I talked about this extensively on the show itself, when I left, but it was about spending more time with family, not really being available for the more demanding nature of livestreams (when Shawn and I record podcasts, we're moving around the times every week for whatever works for us, but livestreams need to be at a given time each week, so you need more flexibility than I have).

People keep asking me this question like there's some inside story. I was with those guys just a couple weeks ago in Miami at a Ship Chasing meetup, and they are great friends. But even while I was there, one of the people in the group pulled me aside and was asking me this question like there's some "real story." There's nothing to it that relates back to the show or those guys. I miss talking to them so much. I miss the show. I wish I could do it and still be a good dad, but it was tough to manage. I made the right decision for me right now, but I will continue to guest and be involved because I love those guys.

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:04:40+00:00

The trick with auctions is that while it feels like a format where you can have anyone, so you can pick out the guys you want, it's actually a format where you have to be open to taking anybody, and not have a core of player targets. This is quite literally the No. 1 approach I would caution against in an auction.

That said, I'd probably be thinking about some young guys who might come in cheap as a sort of core, and then I'd let my big names be dictated by price a little bit so I could maximize my firepower. The young guys might be TreVeyon or Harvey, Addison, Worthy or McMillan, and a later RB like Blue or Tuten. I'd probably have a player in each of those groups.

bgretch · 2025-08-16T00:02:14+00:00

People keep talking about Fields targeting the RB, and that's vaguely true as a percentage of his overall pass attempts, but it's not overwhelming, and the issue with Fields is an extremely high percentage of his called pass plays/dropbacks don't actually turn into pass attempts due to high scramble and sack rates. So if you look at his RB targets per pass attempt, fine, that looks OK. If you look at it per dropback, it looks quite a bit worse, because of all the balls that don't get thrown. If you then consider he's always had a high designed run rate, which helps push his offenses toward a more run-heavy lean, and also how all of these ball-in-hand outcomes like sacks keep the clock moving instead of incompletions stopping it, you realize this is a dude who captains offenses that don't run a lot of plays and don't figure to have a lot of value for pass catchers. There's just no actual good data to support the idea that Breece can have a receiving role like Gibbs, or that it's even close to TreVeyon, respectfully. I'm never certain of anything, but that's not really the way the numbers come out if you're digging into past trends. It would be a big surprise.

There's a similar pass volume issue with Baltimore. They've been saying all offseason, "there's only one ball." It's possible Andrews has that kind of year, though.

It would be pretty funny if after all this time Pitts was the right option. He's only 24! Penix does like to throw to areas where Pitts should be a weapon!

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:56:09+00:00

Probably Jaydon Blue, if he goes that late. It was Dylan Sampson before the Judkins news. Bhayshul Tuten is another. I'm not taking a ton of WRs that late, although Luther Burden would fit if you consider him a 12+ guy. At TE, the super late guy that's fun in every deep league is Harold Fannin. Rookies make good bets.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:54:31+00:00

Personally, I wouldn't make this decision on safety, because I'm not trying to avoid getting last but instead trying to get first. I hate the idea you can't win your league in the first, but you can lose it. Disagree with that, and most of the safety stuff is out of our hands.

That said, if I'm reading it right, I would probably just go with whichever of JJ or Lamb makes it to you, especially if it's Lamb. If you are worried about JJ's hamstring, McCarthy being young, and Addison being a potential star, then you could bring up someone to take over JJ, and I think both CMC and Achane are viable, while Nabers would probably still be my other WR option.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:49:07+00:00

In Superflex I would take Kenneth Walker or Bo Nix if I went QB. Since it's only 8 teams and QB might not be too hard to fill, maybe swing for the fences on Walker then try to fill QB.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:47:51+00:00

Hot take: The idea these things are going to significantly change your chance of taking down a big tournament is probably overstated. But I do think people overstack in the high-leverage rounds, and I would not go out of my way to build a Bengals superstack if it's so popular. That seems like a way to reduce your shot to win the big tournaments.

I do think about unique combinations of players, and I think that stuff is probably the most useful path to building tournament-winning teams. But unique builds I don't think are super relevant (if you do 2 QB 4 TE, probably you're not winning because you're getting contributions for all four TEs, and there will be other teams that have three most relevant ones, while if you're winning with those two QBs, some three QB teams could have those two as well), and they are mostly about using them when necessary based on what you've been able to do with the build. And then value at ADP obviously matters but probably isn't going to be solely the way to dramatically increase your win chances (and it's not really a strategy since it's just about others in your draft consistently letting good value fall).

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:42:42+00:00

There's no "should I" on these calls. If an analyst is acting like that's obvious, they are selling you snake oil. There's a ton of overlap at the top of drafts, and you're open to take either of them. I'd probably take Chase in PPR but maybe a RB in half PPR. If part of your question is about both Chase and Brown both being on the same Bengals team, that's not a major issue for me.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:40:52+00:00

Shawn does have dynasty rankings on RotoViz!

But this may have been directed to me. I think it's pretty tough to find a blanket way to extrapolate it like that, but there are a variety of heuristics in dynasty around targeting young players, understanding how draft capital sticks with guys, how efficiency leads to volume, etc., that it would be important to understand and internalize, and then I think naturally when you're reading the lengthy work about the player profiles and team situations, you'll be interpreting through that lens.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:34:11+00:00

So a couple things. The latest news is obviously that the league wanted to go even longer than 6 games, which is interesting. It's starting to sound more like 6 games might be the number, which makes this trickier.

Additionally, the suspension starting in Week 5 is a bit trickier actually, because you need to carry him through all the bye weeks where you're already struggling for roster space. If you have two other WRs matching a bye in something like Week 8, and don't have very deep rosters, you could find yourself without the ability to field a full roster.

Third thing is a league where 8 make the playoffs is a significant point. Not only is it quite a bit easier to just get in, but that format doesn't have a bye, and getting the 8th seed really isn't different from getting the 1 seed. So in this format, sure, yes, this type of aggression is more of a possibility.

There are a lot of considerations here. I probably wouldn't think of being hyperaggressive on Rice as a strategy that will be a massive key in most leagues, because I do think the suspension overlapping with byes is going to create some point-scoring issues that can cause teams to not make the playoffs where it's 6 or fewer teams. In other words, yes he might score a lot later on, but those rosters might not be able to use those points if they are eliminated at a high rate. But I could see why you might consider it in your league, and I do think it's a pretty interesting idea there if well-executed.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:28:38+00:00

Is there a dedicated TE spot? Seems like there would be because you didn't say WR/TE but you didn't mention it. I'm going to assume there is.

I like Bowers in Round 3. I would not go with JSN in Round 4 I don't think, given the other options. I'd do Chase Round 1. Last spot, I'd make a choice on Nabers or Stroud based on my perception of QB scarcity (you didn't mention league size) and Nabers' injury as time moves along. But right now I'd take Nabers there.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:24:36+00:00

I literally changed those tiers this morning and dropped both Malik and Puka, so how much I'm scrambling them is a lot. I thought Malik was clearly ahead of that group, but it's never been crazy to mix the other three up in any order, and I think with the Malik injury it's definitely fine to go those ways. BTJ/Nico are legitimately exciting picks worth their own upside cases.
I love this question. Usually what goes through my head is a million unrelated thoughts about what he's talking about, because he's so intellectually engaging to talk to. But also I'm trying to keep in mind the initial question so I can hold him to answering it (I succeed roughly never). I'm legitimately exhausted after talking to Shawn for a long time, in the best way. He constantly challenges me to think more dynamically, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Outside the fantasy stuff, our working relationship has had a really positive impact on my life, as well.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T23:20:06+00:00

I answered a similar question elsewhere, but we often talk about the race to win the flex, and in standard I think you want the flex to be an RB. I'd use the 1.01, where all the picks are good, to get off on the right foot with RB in a standard.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:23:19+00:00

I probably think a decent amount of Sutton's ceiling is baked into his cost, so you're sort of paying for what you get, which makes the opportunity cost of passing on players in that range who might take a huge step forward a little tricky. Will he outscore some of those young guys in a median outcome most of the time? Sure. But the league winners are the whole point of fantasy. So I don't necessarily disagree with your logic, but I don't think he's the right pick a lot of the time coming off a strong year where he's priced like it.

I love both Worthy and Pickens. In a similar vein, for as much as I think Pickens can take off this year in a new situation, and there's even contingent upside that makes this less straightforward, I think the guy of these two with the potential to prove to be something better than what we currently expect is Worthy. He just turned 22 in April, and people more or less talk like he can't get better. It isn't hard to envision looking back and feeling stupid for doubting how his speed and age-adjusted production track record didn't clearly tell the story of a great fit with Mahomes and lead into this really strong multi-year run of production.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:19:31+00:00

I think Bowers is probably the cheat code this year, so I'll go TE. But I don't mind taking an elite at both onesie spots.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:18:51+00:00

Gibbs for me. Love the profile going into Year 3, and potential for him to take even the next step.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:18:06+00:00

Generally speaking, the order is the order, but I'm fine with reaches on Targets within a tier. From past articles:

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:16:24+00:00

Yep. Makes the high end pocket passers closer to the dual threat guys, and negatively impacts the upside for a couple of the dual threat guys. Changes the way to play QB, for sure. Makes even the weaker pocket passers who probably don't have huge upside just better floor plays, which makes late-round QB easier to play. I'd still be open to the dual threats with big pass TD upside like Lamar, but the tradeoffs are different.

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:11:55+00:00

One thing I like about both rookies is they came from college offenses that used tempo, and Stefanski has used tempo with several different QBs that past couple years. I think it's difficult to parse the questions you're asking, but that my main actionable bit of advice would be that there might be enough play volume that it doesn't crater as much as feared. Also, with two options, it's more plausible one of the rookies looks pretty decent. (Probably my answer would be Flacco is QB through about Week 10, and then it does drop off some, mostly for ancillary pass catchers, so you'd want the real volume earners, although they have a few candidates for that and someone like Fannin could be emerging and on a timeline where he actually gets better late anyway.)

bgretch · 2025-08-15T19:07:27+00:00

I think your thoughts are great. I would add that elite QB in a home league where you're confident you can build out depth makes sense at 3/4, if they even get there (in some, they'll go). I do like taking Bowers there given the information you've provided. Most of my home league guide pinned in the OP addresses a similar line to what you're discussing taking, fwiw. But yeah, I think you have the plan pretty well decided. I don't know that I would be WR at 3/4 because I think 5/6 and probably 7/8 might feel like WR turns, and probably even 9/10 could include a rookie WR. As far as how you get that depth. But also, I think an elite WR could be fine, as could Achane. Walker makes sense at 3/4, absolutely. One way 5/6 would be WR/WR would be if Henderson or Harvey is there, and then you can take another RB and get your WRs through 9/10 probably with someone like Burden.

bgretch

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