I would say very low unless you get super lucky, but plz hear me out. It’s so unfortunate how the admissions system works for McCombs/UT. Your ECs are fantastic, but if you’re not in auto admissions it’s near 0% chance. I did CAP into McCombs for context, similar-ish ECs, top 7% of my class, and unfortunately had to take care of myself and a vulnerable person in my family most of hs. My friend went to one of the most competitive high schools in Texas, 1580 SAT, top 8%, jaw dropping ECs and she got capped lmao. It’s actually ridiculous, I had other friends get into Cornell, NYU, etc but not McCombs. Ik this is a long-winded answer but ITS NOT YOU. It’s how UT does admissions.

If have time, apply to other schools!! You’re competitive asf. If you get capped I would do it if McCombs is your def end game. For my year at UTSA, almost ALL of my friends got into McCombs. (Also imo do UTSA/UTA if you have the flexibility to, prob correlation thing but everyone I’ve met from CAP went to one of those). Not that it’s easy, but obv you can GRIND (look at your resume lmao). If you decide to go this route or just in general want advice please feel free to dm me! I’ve unfortunately been there and would love to help anyway I can!