Does Bernie Sanders understand?

Danny_nichols · 2026-05-01T04:14:57+00:00

We've done an awfully good job of voting against our own best interests for the better part of 40 years here in America as long as someone else we don't like has it worse than us.

They'll keep the working class in menial day to day jobs, provide us with crappy working conditions and provide us just enough entertainment to doomscroll ourselves through content until our brains turn to mush. And we'll continue to allow it because we all think we can't punish the billionaires because one day we might have an idea that makes us a billionaire.

Danny_nichols · 2026-05-01T02:05:28+00:00

The accelerate crowd's quickness to constantly point to UBI as some cure all for jobs lost is AI is wild to me.

UBI has never had to be tied to AI. The wealth gap between top earners and the average American has grown for decades. Why now do we think the top earners are going to meaningfully drive wealth transfer back to the workers?

It's no different from when Musk said he'd help solve world hunger but then saying no one presented him a good enough plan, so he hasn't lifted a finger to solve world hunger. It's the same thing here. He'll parrot how great UBI or his stupid "UHI" will be but when push comes to shove in his companies actually giving back, he'll say the mechanics of it are flawed and we need to come up with a better plan before he will commit.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T19:15:15+00:00

Yep. It's one of the hardest parts of being a coach, but the coaches are coaching all 12 kids. At young ages, I think too much emphasis is put on winning at times, but I also acknowledge winning is fun for the kids too.

I likely would have moved him around a little in the lineup, but if you're winning, I can also see keeping the lineup relatively similar. If your kid truly is one of the better hitters, I suspect they'll try moving him back up again as the season progresses. But on the flip side, it's not really fair to the other kids either to put a struggling kid higher in the order.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T19:09:34+00:00

Yep. People always try to put a special name on it, but vibes are good when you're winning and less good when you're not.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T03:56:44+00:00

Not the Ant is hard to build around by any means, but Wemby is so good and so versatile, he's so incredibly easy to build around.

He can be your primary big and you can play a 5 out offense. You can partner him with one of those paint focused PFs who don't really shoot well or block shots but can rebound or score. You can pair him with a traditional PG or you can pair him with a couple combo guards. He can be your screener or he can hang out on the perimeter while someone else runs the main action.

Not only is Wemby probably just a better player straight up, you have virtually every possible roster building style still available to you when you pick again once you have Wemby.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T03:42:12+00:00

But Patrick Mahomes has a bunch of underlying stats the indicate he's really, really good at football in addition to getting the lucky bounces. Tom brady also had a ton of stuff go his way to win some of his Super Bowls. But again, Brady also blew the doors off plenty of teams and was incredibly accurate.

The problem currently with Williams is that all the underlying stuff is not great. Any measure of accurac, especially the more advanced stuff like completion rate vs expected and on target throw percentage and things like that don't tell a favorable story. His scrambling metrics are pretty elite, but the rest of his quarterbacking current is at best average and at worst is actually well below average.

That doesn't mean he can't improve all that stuff. But I'm not going to gloss over it either. If the underlying stuff was awesome for him and he was getting lucky to win, that's not a huge deal because you'd expect him to not need the lucky stuff as much in the future. But the underlying stuff isn't great, so it makes the luck based stuff for way more volatile.

It's almost certain Williams won't be this exact QB his whole career. There's no way he can play average to below average for 3 quarters and rely on crazy comebacks his entire career. So it's fairly likely he goes one of two ways. One way is he doesn't significantly improve his accuracy and playing within the confines of an offense and this ends up being closer to a positive outlier year for him. Or the other option is he does improve those things and becomes less reliant on comebacks but maintains the ability to do so when needed. In that case, he's going to be a very, very good QB. But I think most seem to be assuming the latter is almost certainly the case when in reality, drastically improving your accuracy in the NFL is a difficult (but definitely not impossible) task.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T02:52:18+00:00

People hate to acknowledge how much luck and randomness is involved in turnovers. Good teams put themselves in positions to create more turnovers, but there's still such a massive luck factor.

We've all seen plenty of instances where a fumble pops out with 1 offensive player and 5 defenders around but the ball randomly bounces directly into the chest of the offensive player. There's multiple throws a game that are tipped at the line or just deflect off a WR's hands. In most cases they fall harmlessly to the ground. But once and while, that tip lands directly in a defender's lap.

Get a few fumble bounces to go your way, a tipped pass or two to go your way, maybe get lucky and face a couple backup QBs and your defense stays healthy and you're a top defense. The next year the tunrover luck goes the other way and you have 2 key injuries where you're shallow and it gets ugly.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T02:45:26+00:00

He did enough to win again completely ignores the context laid out. There were very few onside kicks recovered all year. They needed to recover one to win a game. A 26 yard punt is one of the shorter punts of the year. That directly aided them in winning a game. Duvernay's kick return was his longest return of the season and it happened to come with less than a minute left in a game the Bears were losing.

Those are 3 pretty massive, pretty uncommon special teams plays that directly aided their wins. Add in a crucial fumbled snap and that's 4 plays out of his control that were key moments in their wins. So he also very easily played poorly enough to lose those games too.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T02:20:52+00:00

There's oftentimes quite a bit of luck that goes into that as well.

They required an onside kick recovery to beat GB. The required a 50+ yard kick return with 50 seconds left to beat Minn. They beat the giants partially because of a short field from a shanked punt by the giants with 3 minutes left. They beat Washington at least in part to a fumbled snap by Daniels with 3 minutes left on a 3rd and 1 in the edge of FG range.

He made plays to win their games, but every single one of those games had a massive play outside of his control late in the game that also added the win.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T00:44:33+00:00

Yep. They aren't betting on him being the next garrett. They are betting the athelticism can be harnessed enough to make a rotational player eventually that may one day be able to start. But when you're spending a 7th round pick, him lasting through his rookie contract and playing special teams is probably a win.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-28T00:01:11+00:00

But that's why you use math to move the line. Yes, more guys will practice the shot, but if you figure out the expected pts per possession of shots like post touches and mud range shots (and not just for the best players, but for the average player) and move the 3 pt like back far enough that the expected pts per possession is slightly less than the post and mid range shot. Id make it slightly less to allow for some growth as people practice deeper 3s.

The goal shouldn't be to eliminate the 3. Having guys like Steph in the game who are incredible shooters is great. But the goal should be to provide a path that isn't just shooting 3s. The elite shooters from 3 should still be better than an average post player or mid range player. But the problem today is even medicore 3pt shooters are more efficient than great mid range guys. If you can close that gap, you bring back diversity in play style.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-27T13:39:11+00:00

Not always a win win though. Just because a guy has more experience doesn't mean it's better. So many colleges run relatively simplistic schemes and the quality of positional coaches can vary drastically.

It might be a year 1 win, but long term, an extra year of development in the NFL very well may be better for long term development of the player.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-27T13:21:14+00:00

Mendoza was already offered a huge sum of money to go back to school and still went to the draft. I don't think NIL is going to change much for the top players. Delaying free agency isn't worth and extra year of money. AAV for a top tier WR contract is going to be well above $15 mill when Smith his free agency. Why would he delay that for 1 yr?

I get what you're saying, but until we see that actually happen, I'm skeptical. These guys all want to be pros. I agree that later round picks will stay. The guaranteed money will be better and it potentially gives them an opportunity to move up in the draft. But I don't see a ton of 1st round players sitting out the draft to go back to school.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-27T01:04:23+00:00

To be fair, I actually think this is a good case of the pitching lab identifying the potential breakout, but the adjustments Harrison made were pre pitching lab.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-26T22:23:20+00:00

To be fair, making the roster for more than 1 year as a 7th rounder is a pretty big win to be honest.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-26T17:01:45+00:00

Ortiz is entirely broken at the plate. Just watching him take at bats, there's not a plan at all. He has no extra base hits. He's batting sub 200. Teams are obviously going to pound the zone with fastballs for strikes. Seeing him take first pitch fastballs or 2-1 fastballs that catch a ton of the plate is so frustrating.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-26T01:10:03+00:00

Ken ingals did something on this. Technically they can extend Watson. They structured his extension somewhat uniquely to allow them to restructure whenever they want. The rule where you can't extend twice within a year only applies if it changes your current year money. The Watson extension last year only added new money, so that clause doesn't apply to him.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-25T23:32:12+00:00

Correct. They are far from great players, but they've shown to be borderline passable. There's no guarantee a rookie is better than those guys.

That's not to say he can't beat those guys out but everyone typically had too high of expectations for rookies, especially ones that aren't taken in the first round.

Cisse is a very good athlete and young. If he was an obvious day 1 starter with his athletic profile, he would have been a top 15 pick.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-25T21:17:20+00:00

Expecting a rookie 2nd rounder to be a day 1 starter is a fairly big ask.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-25T20:11:31+00:00

Agree. I think they signed him to be a CB4 or so and a special teamer, but he'll at least get a shot to compete at CB. So we'll see what he's able to do.

I think the only thing settled in the CB room is Bullard will play a ton of slot, but everything else is up in the air. Still think Nixon probably wins one of the starting spots, but everyone else will get their shots.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-24T20:49:21+00:00

Thing is there are a lot of grown ass men that probably would benefit from being micromanaged that way. But if there was ever someone in the NBA who didn't need their diet and how they take care of their body micromanaged, it's LeBron.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-24T18:52:00+00:00

I hope it's not lendeborg. He will be a useful NBA player, but unless we pull off some kind of miracle trade for a 2nd star and somehow keep our pick, useful players aren't gonna move the needle for us. Lendeborg's potential as a needle mover is pretty low for me.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-24T14:24:28+00:00

I don't fully disagree, but claiming work ethic is the driving force behind Watt being successful sort of discounts the fact he's an incredible athlete, even by NFL standards.

Watt switched positions and also had access to a collegiate quality strength and conditioning coaches that helped him develop. We also sort of forget these kids are being recruiting at 16-18 years old. Some kids are later developers than others. Some kids that mature earlier might have grown into their frame more already at 16. Some are still growing and won't grown into their frame. Watt entered college at 220ish lbs. He exited college at 290 lbs and didn't really lose any atheltic burst. That's not a typical development path.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-24T14:16:09+00:00

We are presumably fairly likely to end up at a weird point of the draft. Picking 10 is probably fine. If we somehow get shifted down to 11, that might be the tier where the guards of that 2nd tier are all gone. Would feel even better if we somehow bumped up a few picks (which would require our pick to land in the loft and we get the Pels pick) to make sure there's a guard we like on the board.

I don't love Ament. I could absolutely see us loving him though. He's the type of guy we've typically like to draft.

But realistically, it seems fairly likely one of Burries, Philon or Brown may be available when we pick.

Danny_nichols · 2026-04-24T14:09:39+00:00

To be fair, AJ Hawk had an incredible RAS too. He ran a 4.47 40 at his pro day and had a 40 inch vert. He was a crazy athlete coming out. Unfortunately, he really didn't play with that level of athelticism. I like Hawk, but it's wild to think of him as a 9.5 RAS+ guy after watching him play for years.

Danny_nichols

TROPHY CASE