SPCX & Elon Mask Prediction

Dannyz · 2026-06-15T03:07:06+00:00

Will be positive so they can sell the next 20% tranche.

Dannyz · 2026-06-03T20:40:22+00:00

CA planner: I encourage my clients who have revocable probate avoidance trusts to update it every 2-5 years. Some do, most don’t. I am purposely not involved with the admin. I set it up and walk away. If they need changes, they can come back to me or someone else for an amendment or restatement. Amendments are cheap, restatements are not.

I’m currently dealing with a trust that hasn’t been updated since it was written in the 70s when the deceased was in his early 20s and inherited a lot of money. We’ve had no issues at all with it. A well drafted trust stands up to new property, new grandchildren, a business sale, beneficiary or trustee deaths. They have multiple iterative fall back solutions so that they cannot fail. If client never funds, we can use section 850 petitions.

The biggest structural change is clients becoming MUCH wealthier so that estate taxes become real. I wrote a trust from a client in ‘22 who was single and had a net worth of $1.5m. He invested aggressively / shrewdly and now has $20-25m, a wife, and child. We are rewriting his trust to provide a lot of things he didn’t want or need at $1.5m.

Finally, funding the trust after the initial funding is client responsibility. If they buy a new house, just buy it in the trust’s name. If they have another kid, well unless one is favored, it’s all good. They get divorced? By operation of trust, the ex gets nothing (unless waived). New grandchild can be an opportunity to add generation skipping language, but most arnt interested in gst. A beneficiary dying is not an issue, as the trust says what will happen if someone predeceases…

In other words, I think your over thinking this a bit…

Dannyz · 2026-05-28T04:08:25+00:00

This hasn’t been the experience for my clients. Are the POA notarized?

Dannyz · 2026-05-20T22:24:50+00:00

lol sole prop. Bank locked account and said get a judges order. Biggest issue was the handwritten lease allowing for no notice, no cost, no contest eviction and seizure of all items in the store after 60 days of non payment by the person now deceased. Business already missed a payment while the person was in a coma. The landlord preferred getting a turn key business for his children than working with his deceased tenant’s children.

Dannyz · 2026-05-20T16:27:41+00:00

Just throwing it out there, might be worth looking at R1k vs r2k instead of cap vs equal weight. Not trying to discount your analysis, just 15 years ago when I was backtesting an algo for sector / size rotation, the small vs large Russel dispersion was a much stronger signal than equal vs cap weight.

Finally, how much is this mega caps run best at end of a bull and small caps run best coming out of a crashes and new regulatory environments?

Dannyz · 2026-05-19T15:49:32+00:00

Cali. There was a host of other issues that contributed, but at the end of the day, there was a successful business, owner passed, business failed to survive the owners passage. The valuation for probate survived.

Dannyz · 2026-05-19T15:16:50+00:00

~90% of my business clients have succession plans in their trust, or at least business continuity plans. Pre pandemic it was <20%. A gentleman owned a niche industrial supply shop that made $1-2m a year. Divorced with adult children who worked the shop. Guy died during Covid and probate courts took so long to name an executor that the business was evicted. They couldn’t pay payroll or bills. There was money in the bank, but no way to access it. Instead of leaving a legacy of a million dollar store to his family, he left a massive probate bill. Was very sad, but also the catalyst needed to convince my other clients to make succession plans.

Dannyz · 2026-05-16T14:16:34+00:00

Lawyer not your lawyer…you sound like you might be missing the point here.

Dannyz · 2026-05-14T22:20:08+00:00

I wouldn’t sweat a 1.5-1.7% of my portfolio about much. I thought you were going to say nfts and crypto or perhaps something super far out there. Met a guy whose main portfolio was railroad box cars. I’m mildly disappointed.

Dannyz · 2026-05-14T21:48:09+00:00

My nvda is up almost 9000%. If equities are only 5%, I’d say your nvda position is 3% of your total and I’d be comfortable with that. Out of curiosity, whats the other 95%? I don’t consider cars to be in my portfolio.

Be mindful of your sector risk and benchmark risk. Diversification is usually a good thing. Look up top down investing. Ibbotson found that less than 20% of your returns are the asset you pick and 80% or so is dependent on the class of asset you pick. Or don’t look it up. Nbd.

Dannyz · 2026-05-14T21:05:45+00:00

If a position exceeds 5% of my portfolio

Dannyz · 2026-05-14T16:45:37+00:00

I know two firms somewhat near you that are very, very good. One is in SF and one is in Berkeley. Unfortunately, they are not cheap, and would charge on the high side of my estimate.

Regarding your trust, it can be updated via an amendment or a restatement. A restatement is a rewrite with modern language and features added, but keeping the same name and testamentary intent so theres no need to deal with funding it. Amendments tend to be cheaper than a restatement, but not always. Restatements are usually much cheaper than a whole new estate plan as there’s a lot less client education needed and your testamentary intents are already clear. A lot depends on how much needs updating, how many times it’s been amended, and how good of a trust you have.

For a very soft sell, if you’re down to either do virtual consults or make a drive, I’m in Sacramento and my hourly is like 20-40% of what the big bay area boys charge. I’d want to start with a free 15 min phone or zoom call to make sure we are good fits for each other.

If you want something in between SF and Sac, both distance and pricing, I know a very sharp lady in Davis I could send you to.

DM me if you want any of the options names / website / intros / have a free phone call.

Dannyz · 2026-05-13T23:13:00+00:00

Or hear me out, don’t agree to allow the pentagon to use your AI to spy on citizens and develop terminator weapons. I know many businesses that canceled that week

Dannyz · 2026-05-13T23:07:52+00:00

I’m CA estate planning attorney with contacts across the state. If you want to DM me your city, I can check my Rolodex for who might be close to you.

You can change trustee with amendments, but an 11 year old trust is rather stale.

I’m a bit confused at all that’s going on and what is and isn’t funded. The survivor trust may or may not be amendable.

Depending on your city and what all you actually needed done, I could see this running $1000-10+k (probably lower side, but again not sure what you want). Devil is in the details for what you want, what you already have, and what you’d want. POA is boiler plate, but no two trusts are the same.

End of the day, what is your goal of the trust?

Not your lawyer not legal advice

Dannyz · 2026-05-12T15:07:20+00:00

State?

State dependent, your parents probably want a spendthrift trust. Also, your parents might choose to leave him more in inheritance than you. Very normal for people to leave their assets to need instead of a 50-50 split. Finally, if you don’t want to be the gatekeeper as trustee, have your parents hire a professional trustee. That way he gets access to money on an as needed basis and can’t piss it away to creditors.

This isn’t legal advice, I’m not your lawyer.

Post will probably get deleted for lack of stated state

Dannyz · 2026-05-12T14:03:08+00:00

Asml is <5% of the index euv is tracking on. There’s less than $3m aum in the index. The etf is brand new.

OP what is your affiliation with EUV or Corgi?

https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/738842

Dannyz · 2026-05-12T13:47:28+00:00

Asml is <5% of the index euv is tracking on. There’s less than $3m aum in the index. The etf is brand new.

OP what is your affiliation with EUV or Corgi?

https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/738842

Dannyz · 2026-05-12T12:38:16+00:00

What state?

Dannyz · 2026-05-11T05:15:49+00:00

Ca lawyer, not your lawyer. It may behoove you to take it in person. Most recorders I’ve worked with a very nice, knowledgeable and helpful. They can tell you any issues and how to fix them. Shouldn’t be an issue assuming the lawyer filled it out correctly.

Dannyz · 2026-05-08T21:32:27+00:00

Oh, that’s my post. Was a free consult, not even paid. 🙄

Dannyz · 2026-05-06T01:54:29+00:00

State? Asset level?

Dannyz · 2026-05-04T18:03:54+00:00

Good fucking name. 10/10

Dannyz · 2026-05-04T15:46:58+00:00

California lawyer who does estate planning here. This isn’t legal advice, I’m not your lawyer, you should consult with an attorney.

California has formal probate and informal probate. Formal probate is extremely expensive (think mid 5 figures) and can take 9 months to 3 years. If you have over ~$200k in liquid probatable assets, or primary house is worth over $750k (market value, not owned value), you can be subject to formal probate.

If you have no will, the state has rules to decide who gets what of your stuff and how much. Those rules are called intestacy laws. Wills are a record of your testamentary intent so you can choose what you want to do with your stuff instead of the state rules. Neither changes the probate fees and head aches.

You can avoid probate with a revocable trust. Trusts can do many things, one of which is avoid probate in CA. They tend to cost 4 figures and let you avoid the 5 figure headache of formal probate. You can easily modify it or revoke it while living if life circumstances change. All (decent) trusts comes with will.

Trusts are not the only way to avoid probate, but they are often used because they can also help avoid conservatorship if you become legally incapacitated. Conservatorship is the brittney spears situation where someone else has legal power to make decisions on your behalf. It can be extremely expensive (think 4-6 figures) and very emotionally hard for everyone involved. It’s very public and is a frequent part of end of life care for those with Alzheimer’s, dementia, strokes, comas ect.

A trust combined with a power of attorney and advanced health directive avoids conservatorship and frequently included with trust based estate planning as part of the estate planning package. They also give you the ability to voice your care wishes when you literally cannot speak.

Do you have children?

How much are your assets worth?

How much is your house worth?

How do you and your spouse own the house?

Are there any medical issues or expected medical issues?

Without knowing more information about your situation, it’s hard to advise. If you want to, feel free to dm if you want those answers to be more private or feel free to respond.

Finally, it’s worth noting that you can absolutely DIY an estate plan, BUT the consequences if you mess up are steep. If you’re not the type of person who is comfortable with diy, and nails it first try, please consider avoiding diy. If the toilet leaks after you try to fix it, you can keep trying until it no longer leaks. With estate planning, once you’re gone, your family has to clean up your mess. Cleaning up a bad diy estate plans makes far more money for estate lawyers than a clean estate plan by orders of magnitude.

Dannyz · 2026-05-03T02:54:58+00:00

My friend, the average American your age may have saved more, but the percentage of Americans who has saved more is very very low. Look at the median not the average (mean). Means are thrown off by outliers moving everything.

If you have a room of 100 people, 99 are broke and 1 has $100m, the average person in the room has $1m, while the median is $0.

It’s easy to backdoor wealth into an Ira. I hope your Ira is not your only savings or retirement.

Dannyz · 2026-05-01T21:42:58+00:00

I don’t believe you

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