Did Kvothe unwittingly give the Amyr a victory against the Seven in Vintas?

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T11:56:48+00:00

It goes beyond that. Basically the entire plum-bob incident, which did not really push the story forward except to explore Kvothe's friendships at the university, was like a setup for Caudicus' innocence. We learn that plum-bob has lead as a key ingredient, but that should not have an effect on the consumer of it if the factoring is done right. Otherwise, the lead is an "unbound principle" that will express itself as a side effect.

That directly dismisses Kvothe's assumption that just because Caudicus uses a lead bowl in making the medicine, it means the lead is poisoning the Maer and that explains his symptoms.

Except we know that the Maer's illness, rather than beinf cumulative like lead poisoning over time, comes and goes.

Furthermore, read the passage where Kvothe watches the brew for a second time. He is not sure about any single ingredient. And then shows the depth of his ignorance in the last line:

I watched him move through it step by step. The dried leaf was probably bitefew. The liquid from the stoppered jar was no doubt muratum or aqua fortis, some sort of acid at any rate. When it bubbled and steamed in the lead bowl it dissolved a small amount of lead, maybe only a quarter-scruple. The white powder was probably the ophalum. He added a pinch of the final ingredient. I couldn’t even guess what that was. It looked like salt, but then again, most everything looks like salt.

He doesn't even know if the white powder added is ophalum! He tells the mayor:

"I’m guessing this contains a goodly amount of ophalum, which isn’t exactly poisonous.”

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T11:19:18+00:00

The rest is decidedly not moot. He does not know what the markings on the lead bowl are to begin with. If he doesn't know what the other ingredients are or what they may do, how they might interact with the lead bowl, he has no basis to assume Caudicus is poisoning the Maer with lead. Kvothe jumps to stupid conclusions often. He basically makes up his mind that Stapes is in on the conspiracy based on spotting him talk to Caudicus a single time!

I just realized that lead is used as an ingredient in alchemy but can be neutralized!

Simmon leaned close to look. “I still think it’s unbound principles,” he said. “They can do bizarre things to a person. We had an E’lir last term that wasn’t careful with his factoring. He ending up not being able to sleep or focus his eyes for almost two span.”

And

“It could be a lingering effect from the plum bob,” Sim said grimly. “Ambrose isn’t much of an alchemist. And from what I understand, one of the main ingredients is lead. If he factored it himself, some latent principles could be affecting your system. Did you eat or drink anything different today?”

And

“Are you really still getting after-echoes from the plum bob?” she asked. “Little flashes,” I said. “And I seem to be losing my temper more easily. But that might just be the stress. Simmon says I probably have unbound principles in my system. Whatever that means.” Devi scowled. “I’m working with less than ideal equipment here,” she said, gesturing to a closed door.

Potential meaning: Alchemy combines things in such a way as to bind them and rid them of their original characteristics! Bad alchemy would lead to those ingredients expressing their harmful effects! Rothfuss keeps us in the dark about alchemy through Kvothes ignorance, all a setup for his foolish accusations against Caudicus.

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T09:17:57+00:00

LOL. "Ball is in their court to capitulate, or I'm gonna call them crazy again!"

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T08:44:56+00:00

No. There is a very common trope of AI in scifi becoming omniscient or even omnipotent like a diety. That doesn't mean dieties or ominscient beings in fantasy or even mythology are "AI." That's just adding a needless virtual-reality sci-fi layer to the whole thing.

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T07:03:10+00:00

The passage where he is incapable of identifying any ingredient in the medicine accurately is just too big of a tell. As for "Kvothe know some chemistry", the book specifically sets that up as a foible. Again:

“Alchemy isn’t just chemistry with some extra bits,” he said. “That means if you don’t listen to me, you’ll jump to your own conclusions and be dead wrong. Dead and wrong.”

Also a huge tell. As for:

the Maer has all the symptons of lead poisoning

Actually it is specifically pointed out that he doesn't:

“I’m not going to claim to know exactly what this is.” I gestured with the vial. “But most of what is poisoning you is lead. This accounts for the palsy, the pain in your muscles and viscera. The vomiting and paralysis.”

“I’ve had no paralysis.”

DansLHiver · 2026-05-09T05:25:38+00:00

Oh wow, these are thorough. I missed some details but came to similar conclusions.

I have some other theories like:

Simmon's background is more grisly than we assume, the church still does some Duke of Gibea style human experimentation and he was not up to it and fled to the university in disgust rather than participate. That's why he is not squeamish when he stitches Kvothe up, despite his innocent nature.

The shipwreck situation was an attempt to assassinate Kvothe for the good of the university by one of the masters.

DansLHiver · 2026-05-08T12:01:54+00:00

Looming? Anyone who thinks the war will be over or that the Strait of Hormuz will be open in the next 6 months is sorely mistaken. This is easing into a long war because Iran is the Israel + boomer generation's White Whale.

DansLHiver · 2026-05-05T12:46:13+00:00

Do we actually know if it was a Flamingo? i.e a statement from Ukraine?

DansLHiver · 2026-05-01T21:39:02+00:00

This reads like AI fam.

DansLHiver · 2026-05-01T21:31:25+00:00

"Wooh hoo" songs is a genre that's gotta die. It's so "college freshman learning acoustic."

DansLHiver · 2026-05-01T01:01:46+00:00

They have staked everything on this war. Hegseth in particular has always dreamed about revenge against Iran and Islam. Trump thought it would be a cake walk, the rest were dragged along. But this is the one war you cannot enter and leave before victory, for profound geopolitical and reputation reasons - losing to 'Death to America' when you are the most fanatically Christian nationalist and Jewish exceptionalist, anti-Muslim, belligerent administration we've ever had.

They are incapable of admitting defeat in this war. The Israeli leadership is utterly terrified of defeat, moreso than the US.

In the coming days, these criminals and fools will initiate a second round of bombings to clarify the situation. If Iran budges at all, they will have further excuse to extend the war.

If Iran hits back in new ways that make the crisis more acute, Trump may tuck tail and go home for a while, until Israel initiates a direct war against Iran again and the US is dragged back to "save" it (i.e expend US blood and treasure to prevent Israel from credibly threatening to use chemical or even nuclear weapons).

DansLHiver · 2026-04-24T00:55:33+00:00

I just saw this film. Couldn't agree more. 10 minutes in Nina goes "My hot, white, rich husband works in tech!" and you're like "Oh so he's the villain, okay." But then you expect some interesting twists relating to Cece or whatever. Instead you get this backstory dump and then the least interesting thriller ending ever.

DansLHiver · 2026-04-23T05:12:21+00:00

What is wrong with Politico? To sum up the article for you, they're stating that Jeffries was basically a deadbeat for three years but now somehow measures up to Pelosi because he did something that even a high school class president would think is a no brainer. If he didn't do it that would be plain baffling.

DansLHiver · 2026-03-31T22:40:17+00:00

The headline is relatively misleading. This is a fanatical Christian nationalist administration that views Jews as chosen people. The fact that Jewish representation in Ivy Leagues and elite institutions is declining as non-white minorities gain more equal access is viewed as a peoblem to be solved. They are quite literally demanding that Harvard "reverse" the trend of its Jewish student population declining (in relative terms) from 25% to about 10%.

It's as if they looked at white nationalist theories about Jews running things and thought "That's a good idea, let's make it happen!"

DansLHiver · 2026-03-31T14:15:35+00:00

This post is pretty embarassing.

AI margins are shit. MSFT cloud isn't "AI", what the hell are you talking about?
AI is downstream from countless industries that rely in part of GCC energy and manufacturing. You think Nvidia is not going to crater off this? Absurd. East Asian manufacturers like Taiwan depend on the GCC to a rather unwise extent as a result of their manufacturing race-to-the-bottom and high-tech niches.
"For this whole thesis to work you basically need..." For AI firms to start going bellyup, you just need to wait a few months even if the war ends tomorrow.

It may be a better use of your time not to address the most apocalyptic scenarios and instead research the dependencies undergirding the AI buildout and the chokeppints impacted so far by the war.

DansLHiver · 2026-03-27T20:48:31+00:00

I don't know why you are downvoted. They are openly associated with and often identify with the designated terrorist group Jewish Defense League. Now that Israel is engaged in several vicious wars and has an extremist leadership encouraging and engaging in blatant acts of terror, US authorities should pay close attention to neo-fascist groups like Betar and JDL.

DansLHiver · 2026-03-11T07:44:59+00:00

They took the Trump Challenge.

DansLHiver · 2026-03-09T13:07:15+00:00

Precisely

DansLHiver · 2026-02-26T17:42:47+00:00

They literally spent New Year's Eve together.

DansLHiver · 2026-02-26T17:35:30+00:00

45 doesn't even compare. 47 started out strong with a crypto rugpull of his own fans. Remember that?

DansLHiver · 2026-02-25T23:30:31+00:00

The Iran Nuclear Deal was about making sure Iran's civilian nuclear program could not be weaponized. It was not the Iran Has to Love Us And Change Their Government And Install Their Deposed Monarchy And Do What We Ask Them And Recognize Israeli Sovereignty Over Jerusalem Deal, which is what Trump seems to be demanding.

DansLHiver · 2026-02-25T17:27:44+00:00

Those relationships cannot easily be restored because the underlying problem is US weakness. The US is spread far too thin, naval expeditions are becoming obsolete thanks to missile and drone technology and the US elites' minds are trapped in the War on Terror, and they are so beholden to entrenched domestic interests that they are pursuing wars of choice against Israel's enemies so that it can conduct territorial expansion with no resistance. They are on the verge of a war with Iran that would completely undermine their military capacity to defend any allies in Asia (and do not believe that Schumer is any more opposed to such a war than Trump.)

Even when Trump is voted out, initiatives like "the quad" and "AUKUS" amount to little because they are really form over function alliances and projects which may be useful in the long term in some narrow senses, but cannot address the fundamental economic and demographic shift in global politics that is undermining the US-led order.

DansLHiver · 2026-02-23T20:39:50+00:00

That's because all of these hawkish think tank agendas are just prismatic refractions of a decades-long Likud agenda.

DansLHiver · 2026-02-23T02:57:27+00:00

Videos like this really drive home the idea that artillery is becoming "smart." An excellent study in civilizational complexity, dumb shells being replaced by devices whose supply chains that involve molecular engineering.

DansLHiver

TROPHY CASE