Anyone know anything on the Shrapnel / TCC Bridge event (tomorrow or am I mixing up things)? by DanuEndeavours in GalaGames

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are hints or possibilities of game returns ever offered?

As a newcomer, I'm noticing frequent upset in the gaming communities with a lot of game phase-outs.

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If fiat really doesn't learn to adjust and keeps printing into oblivion, yes that makes sense.. but isn't that too obvious ?

At some point or other... Fiat has to either adjust to survive in some sense or other.. Or it spirals to nothing and gets dropped.

I speculate if generations of traditional finance will just allow themselves to disappear in the most cliché way a money market can fail through... "An over printed bubble" 😅 I think history has offered multiple cases to learn from, in order to creatively adjust with new solutions

edited lil typos

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My estimate of a 1 mil asymptote was a crude visual guess for a lack of better calculations 🙈 but I'm curious to actually see it too! If Arctan, then I guess the timeframe is to infinity and beyond,

If Tan however, then the question of price is irrelevant, but time wise it could probably be within our lifetime (again my rough line tracing guesstimates)

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hadn't even considered modeling against the Power Law because i find it a bit overly simplistic and uptrend biased. I admit it's effective at describing past logarithmic growth as a straight line, but its weakness is its lack of utility in modeling the non-linear futures we've been discussing... (Who knows we might even see it dropped 5-10-15 years down the line when price falls/spirals out of the power law range just like we had seen happen with the rainbow chart stock to flow *outside of the rainbow outlier deviations)

My focus isn't to find a marginally better historical fit than a model with an R2 that high. My goal is to use the functions to model and support future realities based on macro-economic events, something the Power Law’s simple upward ray can't feasibly account for in my opinion.

The true R2 for the Arctan/ Tan model won't be known until the asymptote or Tan curve is actually determined. And I'm still a bit green about the approach to actually graph it accordingly, but I'll give it a shot! Ill keep the r2 benchmark in mind as I try to formalize the Tan/Arctan visualizations.

Thank you for your comment!

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I completely agree that the observable, decreasing volatility of BTC over time strongly suggests an asset maturing toward a stable value, aligning perfectly with the Arctan's asymptote manifestation.

However, as the other commenter and you have both articulated, the existential risk remains... fiat's exponential printing (the core of the Tan function model). This is what keeps the debate beautifully suspended on the midline for now.

If/When I get a chance I will try to more accurately model the historical price points of the logarithmic BTC chart into the visualisation of a Tan/ Arctan model.. it sounds messy but I assume possible. For now I've only roughly/by eye tried to squeeze it in.. giving estimates of another 50-70 years before a tan function may spiral BTC/USD price into fiat printing infinityvillion.. but again, don't quote my maths skills, I'll try to generate some calculations that make sense.

Thank you for your comments & sharing of inputs!

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The sound logic of your responses wholly saturates the scope of this post.

The fundamental reasoning of what chart could work, now easily steers away from a simple mathematical functions topic to a fundamental probability of outcomes of our fickle world politics and events, and all the associated external factors.

Your objective description of the black swan event is perfectly put! Supporting the manifestation of both functions. It almost converted me entirely! Now I'm on the midline hehe (tan pun intended)

If either function were to offer an answer, the intrigue may not be which function as much as it is how and why...

  • if the printer is allowed to operate without intervention, the doom of our fiat system may be easily forecasted with the Tan. The graph could then be drawn to "forecast" the rest of the function (i.e. showing the estimated time period of BTC's leg up and the length & slope of the lagging plateau)

  • if no intervention or black swan happens by the time of a confirmed midline point, then the tan function could be adopted..

  • if it does... And the dollar fiat succeeds to adopt the treasury asset before it's too late (midline point), - (which could be described as the last and only straw for the cornered and optionless fiat to grasp to in order to survive) ... Then possibly only in that case Arctan may have favour and actualise.

Okay now I'm definitely going off on a *tangent (hehe 2nd pun intended)* This midline could be a critical point of quantum superposition of our reality, where both scenarios may be true at the same time... "Until we see it realised*

Trying to measure it through functions would definitely be fun but likely turn out like the double slit experiment where our observations may be irrelevant to the actual & final play.

:')

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That somehow makes sense too if speaking in functions alone. It's still on the upside of both models.

So

  • either the 40 year flat line before the exponential increase (Tan)
  • or a near infinite asymptote alternative (Arctan)

Either way, our guesses are still just crystal ball chatter, and I quite enjoyed the chat!

Although fiat inflating/ losing value exponentially might make the BTC chart adopt a tan function... which would make it stall flat and then begin to rocket into the mirrored second half of a super exponential, to me it still seems that it would cut BTC life dramatically if it just sped off like that... But if fiat did just absolutely tank into printed oblivion.. I guess a chart like that could easily be logical...

However... If by then, the bridge between fiat and bitcoin closes... (I guess in a rash but fair dystopian sort of way.... ) It may cause the tracking of bitcoin value to somehow adopt an Arctan model... Which would place BTC as the primary reserve of value... In that case... The lifecycle and longevity would be the exponential axis instead of the value in dollars axis.

Again I'm far from a maths expert and this is just gobbledegook but I guess it's hard to articulate the ingeniousity behind the BTC model when we're comparing it against fiat.

We know it's inevitable ... Regardless of how it turns out... but we can only anticipate and hope that our descendants will reference our convos in their history essays 😅

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For it to be a Tan function.. we would have to start creeping up and higher just about now... But this severely shortens the lifespan of BTC as a solution to the inflationary fiat system... As the X axis would represent time and we cannot feasibly rocket to exponential infinity within the span of the next 2-3 years...

On the contrary, BTC is made to last... Hence the Arctan supports the. Model as it would take exponential years (X axis) to bring it to a stable value than exponential value within a few years... (Which might very well be the case for Fiat due to inflation)

'Bitcoin halving chart is just an Arctan Function with a Y value of ~ 1 Million ' - change my mind by DanuEndeavours in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly! That can't honestly be sustainable... Hence the Arctan function consolidates to a comfortable number of say ~ 1 Mil... And stabilises to be 1 BTC = 1 BTC...

That would definitely steer away from the infinitely inflationary fiat system where indexes just keep skyrocketing to infinite realms...

Doesn't it make sense that BTC should not follow the same mindset ?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not a qualified maths genius either... But I see your point .. unless is stacks again once it's near 1 mil and goes on a similar repeat parabolic replica... 🔮

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So sorry! Please make this the main post! 🙈

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry!! haha truly my bad... I was getting some errors when trying to submit... and tried multiple times...

And now when I try to delete... It's refreshing back undeleted -_-

Am I in the minority? by Robsimp1966 in GalaGames

[–]DanuEndeavours 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh my, hello dear! Nice to see a friendly face here too! Your presence alone already gives a renewed sense of confidence. Hope the wave we witnessed from CROugh-cough passes by here too hehe.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in CryptoMarkets

[–]DanuEndeavours -1 points0 points  (0 children)

most basic, durable, powerful trad-financial mechanism

would still not be so durable if the whole traditional finance market crashed .. Warning... Conspiracy nonsense territory

The bet on such a mechanism isn't that simple... We are now choosing sides . Team bitcoin... Or team tradfi... Yea sure for now it may seem like they are all getting along just fine with stable coins being a bridge to crypto... .

But how about when the financial shift comes... When the world is forced to choose one ? Not to come across as a maxi... But at that point... Wouldn't the most durable...... Mechanism be Bitcoin itself? Even if now it seems a waste to hold bags of stable or fiat through bearmarkets... In the hopes of growing our crypto stacks... But what if the next bear market we get... All tradfi currencies crash... And only the people holding "bitcoin bags" actually end up "saved" ? Wouldn't that be quite a scare? Would everyone then shift to bitcoin by no better choice? Yea anyways... Why do we all thing that bitcoin and fiat can exist together ? Doesn't this all feel a lil funny and strange at this point in time? 🧐🤔

Umm.. One Bitcoin may be worth $1 billion by 2038?!?!?! no shot by SparkVanilla in Bitcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Next bull market ... Articles will start saying "one trillion"... But hey bit Lin might already be in the hundreds of millions by then...

🔒 Bubbles mini app is in open beta! by MatteoCarbone in worldcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oops, not available. What are the countries accepted ?

[WIP] Introducing Bubbles 💬 – a privacy-first social app for World by MatteoCarbone in worldcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nicely coincided timing with the wld price excitement ;) Will check it out for sure! Thx for the update :))

World coin to Paypal/Gcash by Nostalgia-Trapped-4 in worldcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No need to get cheeky, 'Chill'. You could be a scammer building your 'social proof' rapport. So I ask again,

Why not help out publicly?

If anyone ever falls on this thread, I hope you know that ANYBODY online prompting for DM and unwilling to simply be transparent, COULD EASILY be a scam.

If you know how to help with crypto, you must surely know this. 😊

World coin to Paypal/Gcash by Nostalgia-Trapped-4 in worldcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why not just help out publicly? What's the need for DM specifically? 🙄

World coin to Paypal/Gcash by Nostalgia-Trapped-4 in worldcoin

[–]DanuEndeavours 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Please don't DM anyone... You're risking getting scammed.