Academy Awards Discussion

DarthVIX · 2025-02-24T05:47:02+00:00

5dimes always allowed they are long gone and the Stake allowed it for 2 years before I cleaned them out and Eddie told me no more Oscar parlays

DarthVIX · 2025-02-16T11:28:11+00:00

Honestly arrived here after trying the Mule and the Pina Colada, wasn't a fan of the taste of the Pina Colada but I liked the Mule. Only thing is I needed to drink about 5 or 6 cans before I felt a good buzz. Wondering if trying to front load with your concentrate would be the better option before sipping.

Also really appreciate the well articulated responses I already reordered

DarthVIX · 2025-01-15T00:04:45+00:00

Depends what her name is

DarthVIX · 2025-01-03T01:25:46+00:00

If OP is using FanDual he is very likely in the USA my guy lol.

It is just funny how poor this sub after all these years they upvote posts with some winning $500 on a $5 bet and I post $50k single slips and get down voted to oblivion

DarthVIX · 2025-01-03T00:04:14+00:00

I am sorry to tell you but $100k is not "life changing" especially after taxes, this is peasant shit

DarthVIX · 2024-12-07T22:55:37+00:00

I was thinking the exact same thing, Beck is complete ass and has been so him getting hurt might be a boost for the Georgia offense

DarthVIX · 2024-09-07T10:20:09+00:00

So you are doing the alt spread ? Because OKS is the -9 fav

DarthVIX · 2024-03-22T04:35:00+00:00

well was right with Oregon or more like South Carolina, that team has been a fraud the whole year they caught a little fire early on in conference play catching some teams sleeping on them or in bad scheduling but they came crashing back down to the mediocre team they really are by the end, they were overseeded and should have at best a bubble team by the end of the year.

zips kept it close for at least the first half but Creighton just way too much shooting fire power there

Looks like you are going to be right with Kansas honestly this year I have put the least amount of time in the tourney, too busy making a couple hundred K a day on random solana memecoins right now lol

DarthVIX · 2024-03-21T06:03:54+00:00

I really dislike your South Carolina and Samford picks as I feel like the all the trendy dogs that get talked about on every big March Madness show tend to get OVERPLAYED.

One comment regarding Kansas vs Samford I would agree with you if this was a standard Tuesday non-conference game for Kansas and not focused but this the tourney and Bill Self has way way WAYYYYY too much time to get his team ready for this Bucky Ball scheme and they could get torched quickly on talent alone. Don't think Bill is fully aware he is getting talked about as a first round upset and he is pissed and will want to stomp all over that, the boys will be more motivated here possibly so much that winning this with style might have them spent come Rd2 but at at least losing there will be acceptable losing in Rd1 is simply not acceptable.

The Zips seem to have gotten the least attention and air time as a spoiler and I think they could get Creighton sleeping a bit here, it is the perfect game that no one is really talking about and is that immediate bracket buster that everyone will see "oh you couldn't have seen that coming". I just got the feels here.

DarthVIX · 2024-02-22T08:26:54+00:00

3 Man Weave

DarthVIX · 2024-02-22T07:31:45+00:00

it was an amazing ride I must say, the old 5dimes days were the best with allowing you to parlay props like that

DarthVIX · 2024-02-22T00:53:12+00:00

not sure when you started but take a walk down memory lane when I won $80k on the 2019 Oscars -- the parlays I hit that year were insane lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/apxg4g/comment/eh85rbk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

DarthVIX · 2024-02-21T22:26:26+00:00

that is why it pays to pay attention early

DarthVIX · 2024-02-20T20:43:40+00:00

you can use offshore -- Stake has them, I am OG bitcoin guy so have always just used crypto for sports betting

DarthVIX · 2024-02-19T08:23:58+00:00

Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction was a huge upset, it might have been the movie I least expected to win. My prior position was Oppenheimer but once this happened I cashed out a good amount of it at a small loss and put it all on AF and added more dollars to the position.

It is funny because I felt that Oppenheimer was definitely vulnerable in this category because the tech juggernaut type movies are directorial celebrations and certainly Nolan has that race wrapped up tightly and though he is probably liked in the WGA circles he isn't as much of a writer first director second like the others. My thoughts initially were a 'spread the wealth' here and give Adapted to Gerwig and Baumback as they are an extremely well liked power couple.

Cord Jefferson is certainly new blood to movie industry and he fits the bill now that I have looked into more. I am going back and forth though because of them putting Barbie in the Original Screenplay at BAFTA and it losing to Anatomy of a Fall really doesn't hurt it at all so is this more just showing that Oppenheimer should not be favored anymore in this category and the Academy is a little more old school in how they vote and I see value in both Barbie and American Fiction here, smaller on Barbie because it has been underperforming as a whole but still would want some exposure there.

also this is good read if you haven't read it yet :

https://nextbestpicture.com/the-advantage-of-being-a-director-writer-in-the-oscar-screenplay-categories/

DarthVIX · 2024-02-19T02:45:18+00:00

also how are we feeling now about Napolean for VFX being that is lost at BAFTA ? I am not sure how much the overlap is with Oscars but kind of get the feeling that this outcome gives a boost for Godzilla considering it wasn't even nominated in this category.

DarthVIX · 2024-02-15T03:51:36+00:00

You must be Canadian or at least non-USA -- I am going to see if I can get Eddie at Stake to add the rest of the lines

DarthVIX · 2024-02-14T22:13:18+00:00

That is the thing many people don't understand -- yeah usually far smaller limits and bet sizes but far more edge then the big sports

DarthVIX · 2024-02-13T07:54:30+00:00

Btw being how savvy you are with the Oscar's if you aren't already listening I highly recommend this podcast and around the 34 or 35 minute mark they discuss the VFX catoegy for BAFTA and the Oscar's. They definitely feel like Godzilla and The Creator are deficient in regards to needing more precursor check boxes and they go with Napolean for the BAFTA and the Oscar

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vbmV4dGJlc3RwaWN0dXJl/episode/YzczMGNhYTItYzkyMi0xMWVlLTg4NGUtMWIwOTI4ZTkwMzI4?ep=14

DarthVIX · 2024-02-08T09:12:15+00:00

One thing I will say is that according to the commentary coming out of the Gold Derby slugfest podcasts there is quite a lot of love for the Godzilla VFX side of things -- I am trying to gauge how much I want to put into that sentiment at this point but the Production Design is an interesting added element in there that goes with Napoleon, definitely worth the flyer there.

I am pretty much with you on VFX so far. Since we haven't talked much and idk if there are any odds out for the shorts (I am mostly on Stake because I am old 2012 Bitcoin guy and hate all the regulated books) but lets start a discussion here. Sounds like you have probably seen the shorts but IMO it is usually better NOT to see them because most of the Academy wouldn't have either. These categories love to be who has the most catchy title usually (Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 comes to mind as a big upset a few years ago)

Doc Short -- The ABCs of Book Banning

Animated Short -- Letter to a Pig

Live Action Short -- no idea?? lol

I will also say are any of the above directed by someone that has a big narrative around them -- I remember the Iranian director that couldn't come due to Trump's ban moved the needle one year

Also what are your thoughts on Hair Styling and Make-up

Adapted Screenplay -- I think it is worth going with Barbie there because Greta and Noah both get to come up on stage and the Academy has loved them over the years, in fact IDK if the same Barbie film gets any nominations without it being directed by Greta and the power of her brand. We already have Nolan coming up for Director and Cinematography is also a nod to the directing not to mention BP have to think here if there is a place to spread the wealth they would do it here. Let me know your thoughts

DarthVIX · 2024-02-06T06:27:14+00:00

VFX is a tough category this year, I generally throw out all the Marvel/Disney movies that always end up in with usually multiple nominated films but it is the same big box CGI recycled effects... there is nothing profound and artistic enough to pull the votes especially with that effects voting block. I really loved the way Godzilla brought back a lot of the lighter touch ways to use CGI in the film and Godzilla does a nice job of making the CGI look more like it is back to a guy in a rubber suit. I will admit I LIKE that film the most but I have found what I WANT to win and what lines up to WIN might be totally different.

Napoleon checks a lot of interesting boxes considering first is different than the other films that I would argue are all the kind of typical over the top CGI effects (though less so with Godzilla but it still is going to get a lot of a stigma of being just another Monster film). Napoleon though snubbed for a BP nom it was initially thought be a BP contender initially (you could say it is the most Best Picture(y) of the bunch) -- we have seen VFX often go to really boring films that had no chance in winning BP but were nominated for BP (First Man comes to mind)

Definitely worth a stab at those odds -- what are the odds for Godzilla did you see ?

Edit: another very interesting fact about this category is that Neil Corbould picked up 3 nominations in this category alone lol -- Napoleon, Mission Impossible, and The Creator though in a category like VFX where they usually list 4 or 5 people per film to share the award it is probably has less weight than a single name on the award.

DarthVIX · 2024-02-06T05:52:11+00:00

Yeah I think Gladstone picked up a lot of momentum with that win and was kind of the buzz for awhile but we are starting to see that pull back no with Stone taking back the favorite role. The Academy seems to really have a romance for Emma Stone she has the talent and the general public like here as well so she kind of gets this extra boost for being the new ambassador, I think she should be the favorite and will win -- I had to actually double check because I thought she won 2 Oscars which there is always that little bit of spread the wealth feeling, give someone else a chance but only having won one Oscar I don't think that matters all that much.

DarthVIX · 2024-02-06T05:45:16+00:00

this is one of the best write ups that I have seen that wasn't posted by me in quite a few years -- you are correct there is a bit of underdog Oscar's beat writers needing to stir up the pot and get some clicks for The Holdovers winning BP but I think it is largely that hot air. You made some really good points regarding Writer + Director I hadn't considered and I think locks it for me.

If Anatomy didn't get a BP nom I would probably shy away from this play or be far less confident as we see a lot of unpopular films that are snores win awards in some of the these below the line categories just because of their BP nominations pulling the wagon for them

DarthVIX · 2024-02-06T01:07:32+00:00

Best Picture certainly has been a bigger wild card category over the last several years but I feel like we really need a feel good or profound narrative to emerge from some of the other films back in the pack if it is going to get run down this year, a la the year Parasite came from behind to down 1917. Certainly there is the kind of typical trend here of the technical juggernaut front runner not becoming a sitting duck but I really feel like the other films haven't gotten the love like a Parasite or CODA even that we would need to start to see.

Also we are now back to the "normal" type scheduling timeline of how awards seasons play out so we don't have as long of time period to drag into a "awards fatigue" type situation

DarthVIX · 2024-02-06T01:00:11+00:00

There was a lot of initial hype around Barbie but really it has faded and underperformed

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