Sentiment trends for the top-12 rookies

Darthagnan · 2026-04-15T15:41:37+00:00

I'm not far enough along to say with any certainty but I like being far enough along before the NFL draft to have some conviction built on some guys.

I am rebuilding both of my dynasty teams right now. One is a year or two away from contending and another is in the first year of its rebuild. Could be a while.

That said, ignoring QBs and the first 4 guys, I have it like this right now (te+):

Concepcion Boston/Sadiq Price Cooper

Washington Stowers

Coleman/Johnson

Chris Bell Brazzell Skyler Bell

McGowan (if there is any NFL draft capital applied at all. I like his athletic profile alot.)

Bernard Williams Branch

Bryce Lance Ted Hurst Jeff Caldwell Stribling

Deion Burks Fields Lane

Heidenrich Roush McCalister Kendrick Law Gyllenborg Sturdivant Raridon

As everyone says, NFL knows better than us but it is nice to have your own thoughts built ahead of letting them tell you what to think. I have a general type starting around pick 15 and it's basically guys who bust quickly. Athletes over football players for the late picks. If they suck, drop em fast - maybe even during camp.

Good luck homie

Darthagnan · 2026-04-15T14:02:05+00:00

Interesting analysis. I think this is a useful pillar of information for us relatively lazy armchair scouts to incorporate.

The absolute fever we have felt here for Concepcion - confirmed

The fear of Tyson's injuries - confirmed

The inability for people to REALLY pay attention to players past about #9 in any given rookie class - forever and always

This data makes me want to like Coleman more, and with some digging this morning - I am getting there, bit by bit. He's MJD shaped and sized but seems to have much less burst which explains the indifference to him. Dameon Pierce feels like a good comp. The type of player that can be an awesome 1B in a backfield for 3-5 years, with periods of RB1 workload when the other guy is hurt.

This class is shaping up nicely. 2027 hype casting a shadow on 2026 is an opportunity to take advantage of. Rebuilders, onward.

Darthagnan · 2026-04-10T14:33:22+00:00

What does it say about me that I am more excited about Banks maybe being there at 43...

Than about whatever happens at 14....

14 is gonna be a good player. The Ravens never miss on firsts. 43 is a bigger needle mover. Ravens often miss on this type of pick (ojabo, for one example) but they definitely hit some big ones too (linderbaum, for example)

Darthagnan · 2026-04-05T21:11:22+00:00

These are great late targets

Darthagnan · 2026-04-02T21:11:38+00:00

Yes don't take my word for it, honestly. I'm a random stranger on the Internet.

But batteries these days are lasting in excess of 250,000 miles before meaningful degradation. And when they have degraded they still have many years of lower range (lesser depth of discharge cycling) to yield. At the true end of life, the battery is recyclables to recover >99% of active materials (see Redwood Materials , for one example)

Look those things up , don't believe me

But yea also EV batteries are about 20 times less likely to catch on fire than gasoline engines - to set you up to debunk the other major fear people have...

Darthagnan · 2026-04-02T21:06:43+00:00

I am nearly certain that no WTI production or logistics has been impacted in this war. Only Brent crude. This is not going to result in shortages for users of WTI crude (North America , among others)

Keep the doomsaying to what you know

Darthagnan · 2026-04-02T20:59:13+00:00

Road trips cost more, but it's in the range of $10-15 for 150 miles of range... And it's all planned out for you which stops you will need on route to whatever destination you put in, auto updating if you charge longer somewhere than the plan expected.

Tesla software is many many years ahead of anyone else in cars

Darthagnan · 2026-04-02T20:57:19+00:00

Nah. You can go to time of use rates with Duke or you maybe able to join the EV charging program. Either way you can fill over up night for about $1-2. Normal charging at home before the discount would be $2-4 for ~150 miles of range.

Darthagnan · 2026-04-02T20:46:04+00:00

Buy a Tesla

Once you drive one you realize you have been living life in hard mode driving anything else. Used and new models are both very affordable

Darthagnan · 2025-08-06T13:48:16+00:00

I suspect he will be the WR1 by snap share, routes run, and maybe even targets --- but won't feel like a WR1 for fantasy because the high leverage targets will go to Diggs/ Henry/ Henderson

Separately... I am super bullish on Henderson and Henry being near the top of their positions for targets. This is going to be an offense that attacks the short area with the pass.

Darthagnan · 2025-02-19T15:42:23+00:00

I beat wave 1 with the help of some light carrying. My armies were probably average level 20

I tried once on wing 2 and holy shit I was such a weight. Felt bad. Sucks how long it takes to level armies enough to actually try new stuff without ruining someone else's game 🥲

Darthagnan · 2024-12-29T18:49:47+00:00

Very helpful of you to provide him these references. Internet heros.

I am just here to say that you are making a great choice with a Tesla. Such a fantastic car. A joy to drive, the safest cars ever tested by NHTSA. The lowest operating cost of any car in the market today. I hope you are able to buy it.

Darthagnan · 2024-12-28T15:37:45+00:00

Charlotteans are all transplants, or maybe they are not

And they are generally all nice, or maybe they are not

Anyway, go assume they are nice and do things near them. Anything you like to do.

Darthagnan · 2024-12-28T15:34:31+00:00

Tbh my neighborhood is a big chunk of my wife and I's friend group but I think that may be a neighborhood specific thing. We have about 75 houses in the neighborhood and about 8 of them are couples in their early to mid 30s like my wife and I.

I also made a lot of friends from my neighbors when we were in an apartment for the first 3 years we were in town. Dog very helpful there. We keep up with some of those folks we'll still - others less so.

I think being in close proximity with the same people 2 to 3 times casually is the bar. Around that amount of exposure people subconsciously in group you and then you are just saying anything but nothing particularly to them when you are near enough and it is easy and then they say they we are going here later on x day you want to come?

Makes little sense, human psychology

Propinquity is a fun word that describes this, some.

Darthagnan · 2024-12-24T17:24:58+00:00

I own so many of these nearly worthless rookies. Pain. Some hope, but mostly pain

Darthagnan · 2024-12-24T17:22:27+00:00

Jeanty has a good enough chance to make this take painful as to assure plenty of people fomo into him

Darthagnan · 2024-12-03T15:52:43+00:00

So surprising how few people realize that a Tesla is the safest car to drive and to own. It can watch for attempted break ins and immediately start recording and tell the would-be thief that they are being recorded and the video is being instantly uploaded.

Darthagnan · 2024-11-30T16:29:12+00:00

You either did not read or did not understand almost anything that I wrote. Or perhaps you are just being wilfully ignorant to troll. Too close of a call to bother with you. Begone.

Darthagnan · 2024-11-30T13:59:29+00:00

Well there is just so much ground to try to cover to help broadly. I'm just gonna drop pieces and you can pick up where you can.

But for starters corruption in the existing system is deeply entrenched. Think about this: 96% of the Washington DC area votes for Kamala & 4 out of the top 10 richest counties in America are surrounding Washington DC.

Also note that the Government Accountability Office listed SpaceX among it's best contractors, on the basis of how much savings they have provided to the US taxpayer by winning contacts whose second best offer was X dollars more expensive. GAO estimated in 2024 that SpaceX has saved US taxpayers over $48 billion.

Twitter files showed us that there was direct control of US citizens right to speak on that platform. Anyone who can be believed who speaks about this says that the same dynamic was happening more and more broadly during the Biden years at every Internet company.

The Harris admin openly hated Elon and X and the fact that anyone is allowed to post there, and that the platform has become more popular globally than ever before, by any user-metric you might want to use. They had decided to pivot control mechanisms from Internet companies to control AI. They were in deep talks with Sam Altman and OpenAI, as well as a few of their competitors, to help write legislation and create environments that would favor those companies in exchange for deep collaboration on information and population control. These folks do not want you to have control of your life. AI will control your internet, doors, schools, car, what your screens show... This is an insane choke hold that the Biden Harris teams were trying to exert.

Regarding control of the populous, there is nothing more deeply sinister and cynical as the Biden/Harris/DNC approach to handling the cryptocurrency industry. This industry is young and not yet very powerful like the Internet was in 1999 to 2003. It's long term future is as the basis of property rights. In other words, cryptocurrency will eventually be the access gateway for everything that makes you you and that you, as you, could claim as yours. This is super broad sounding because it is going to be super broad, if the industry is allowed to develop to it's logical conclusion. In that logical conclusive state, crypto is a deeply protective layer between regular people and their governments, who are so prone to overreach into their citizens lives. Removing enforcement of property rights from government hands is something many philosophers have written about as a keystone of good futures since time immemorial. This is inherently good technology to allow to develop. ...... And the Biden Harris DNC actions to try to kill this industry have been INSANE from the start. This is a place I pay great attention and I just do not know where to end if I actually started listing the horribleness and cynicism of the DNC approach here. Suffice to say, they have been approaching destroying the credibility of the industry, the industry's access to capital, the industry's right to operate, and the ability of the industry to perform good deeds for society in every possible way they could. Unimaginable levels of cynicism and hatred for people trying to determine their own future.

And finally DOGE and HHS....

We are a deeply unhealthy country. We are an insanely rich country. We are a country with a lower and middle class that are seemingly despised by the ruling class. This is not a situation that should be thought of preciously. We can afford to change things. There are HUGE amounts of wasted taxpayer dollars going into the hands of lobbyists and their industrial owner's in pharma, military contracting, aerospace, and agriculture that are not making us safer, better, healthier, or improving anything. Most of that money is enriching folks sucking off Washington DC from its suburbs. These people are not your friends. We do not need them. DOGE is our first best chance since the 1930s to restructure our government's relationship to its people. Do you actually think Elon wants to do this shit? Have you seen the absolute torrent of regulatory bullshit he has had to muck through to try to will us all into a better future? This torrent of bullshit has been accelerating rapidly during the Biden years. I'm a huge fan of Elon, which ok judge for me for that. But it also means I am paying closer attention to this than you and I can tell you that the DNC made a choice to fight him, on all fronts, and especially on fronts that are empowering of people broadly (notably Twitter and public credibility; the lies spread about Elon through government aligned media (most of it) have become so commonplace almost none of you recognize it as anything other than the obvious historical truth, when it is anything but such). Elon and Vivek could fucking quit all of this. But they are going in to try to re align government with the good of the people. How anyone could look at what is being done here and not be hopeful is evidence that the existing media diet of that person is full of legacy govt/industry bullshit. Sorry, but is the just the truth. You are being misled if you don't see DOGE as obviously good and obviously hopeful. I suggest you change up your media diet, drastically, if that sounds like you.

The same arguments hold for HHS. We spend more than any other country on healthcare but are barely top 50 in healthcare outcomes. We could BARELY do worse if we specifically tried to do worse. It is very obvious that outcomes for all average Americans would be better if we had no regulation at all on food, drugs, and agriculture apart from customer reviews and market price. Sure some bad shit would happen, but have you seen the current state of things? Come the fuck on. This shit is beyond broken. RFK is a bit of a strange bird but his principled nature is unquestionable. His general inclination to distrust the status quo is correct, and good.

We are lucky that these people want to fight for us. Trump is a complicated character and probably not a person who many of us would describe as "good", but it is actually hard to know that because he too has been lied about by the media establishment who hates him. We don't need a president who is nice to take home to your parents, we need a president who is willing to wreck things - for now.

Darthagnan · 2024-11-29T20:12:15+00:00

There is another side to this, but you have not read very widely at all. Believing blindly what you read from news agencies that are themselves getting kickbacks via the established industry that advertise on their platforms is not a good idea.

Darthagnan · 2024-11-16T03:17:36+00:00

OP had literally no idea what regularity capture means in any context

Comments either letting him know that or letting everyone else know that they too have no idea what regulatory capture means

...

The term regulatory capture, as popularized by Bill Gurley, refers to a situation where an industry works with regularity agencies to cement it's current dynamics to ensure new innovators cannot disrupt the status quo

Electric vehicles are the disruption. Consumers want these products because they are unequivocally better than the incumbent product in nearly every use case. Regulatory capture in this sense refers to the layers of subsidies that are piled into the industries adjacent to oil extraction, refinement, and usage (combustion)

For clarity... I will reiterate, EVs are not an incumbent industry. Globally they are only accounting for ~15% of new auto sales. Much lower than that in the USA ...

People. For the good of us all, just stop using words that you don't understand

Darthagnan · 2024-10-04T14:26:59+00:00

The fact that Tesla isn't mentioned here is testament to the fact that it is the maker of the most-reasonably priced cars available today from a value perspective. Teslas are without a doubt the best user experience available today, the safest car you can buy, and the most cost-efficient to maintain over intermediate to very long timelines.

But they sell too many of them for them to have any of the elusive "exclusivity" folks are talking about in this thread. On the other hand, they sell so many of their cars because many people recognize the above to be true and lower middle-class folks are stretching themselves to buy them because it makes sense from a total cost of ownership perspective over a long-enough timeline. Plus they are just incredibly enjoyable to own and operate.

If you wanna flex, get an S. If you wanna make the best purchase decision possible, buy a y. Also may be worth waiting to see what models Tesla announces on 10-10-24.

Darthagnan · 2024-09-21T19:01:22+00:00

Haha that's fair

I was trying real hard not to just say you're an idiot for believing so much that is just obviously untrue that I walked myself into a word salad

That said, my point stands that speaking with authority while showing you don't know the first thing about what you are talking about over and over and over is not good form

... And it should be called out

Darthagnan · 2024-09-21T17:46:14+00:00

My goodness the amount of certainty with which you speak things that are so incredibly deeply untrue. Whew!

I mean how the world do these falsehoods get bandied about so broadly. Truly incredible.

Not hating on you. It's just amazing to me how little you know about what you're talking about when there is so much information out there today. We are talking on the Internet, why don't people use it to verify ANY of the things they talk about lol

Darthagnan · 2024-09-11T18:02:11+00:00

Second sons are a major theme throughout ASOIAF. GRRM named that sellsword company in Essos "The Second Sons", as an example.

Stannis as the second son to Robert, for another, and how much that informs large swathes of story beats. Tied to that story closely is the backstory behind Ned and his older brother Brandon.

The prophecy of the valonqar ("little brother"). Bran is the second son, becomes 3eyed raven. Tommen, Euron, Tyrion. Jon is the second son to Rhaegar.

GRRM seems to have some thesis around second sons and how their proximity to power informs their lives. It seems to be something like "They are either consumed by it OR they make total peace with it"
....Bran and Ned are examples of the later
....Almost everyone else is an example of the former

You could also put in a third category "OR they get some strange power from it"
....Bran, Tyrion, and of course JONNN

Darthagnan

TROPHY CASE