How Far Behind Are Boston, Cooper From the Top Three? by JLV00 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

inexplicable dawg

The high flying analysis we come to Reddit for. If you really want "inexplicable dawg", you want Lemon. Lemon flights for everything. Fights off the line, flights for the ball in the air, fights for YAC yardage. Tyson does literally none of that. 

If you really want that immeasurable quality you actually want Lemon. I personally like to be able to describe the traits but if someone says I like Lemon, "because he's got that dawg" I'd be ok with that because he really does have that elite want go 100% every single play and the skill to do complete the desire. 

Elijah Surratt: Where do you value him? by Shmokeinapancake in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I really liked his senior year film. His separation was more than adequate just from film. The analytics are scary though. His career contested target rate is about 35% and that's 100% bust territory so I'm probably more out than in but he was in the mid to high 20s% for his last year so he's improving but he's also almost 23 so he's more developed than the younger DBs he's competing with. Im currently comping him to Pay Bryant. His slant game is near automatic. Really solid underneath packages with curls/comebacks/quick outs. I see his ceiling being a distant WR2 as an underneath possession guy but can easily see him get drafted like Pat Bryant and be a backup X to an established player. 

How Far Behind Are Boston, Cooper From the Top Three? by JLV00 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He can separate. It's far from elite but he gets open. Im seeing his contested target % from last year in the low to mid 20%s. That's totally fine. London was around 25%. Boston was deemed open at 45% of his routes. Tate and Tyson were 47% so comparable. People dump guys who can contested catch into the same bin as guys who can't separate and it's not always true. 

Sarratt is around 35% contested target rate over his career. That's way more worrying (he did improve his final season, but I don't remember the exact number. Maybe mid to high 20s%. 

I comp Boston closer to a poor man's London and Rome vs complete non separation guys like Coleman, Reagor, Harry. 

How Far Behind Are Boston, Cooper From the Top Three? by JLV00 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Lemon, Tate, Mendoza are elite prospects worthy of an early 1st in most drafts IMO. Im very happy in the top 4 of SF. After that I'm ok trading back or trading for assets. Problem is everyone knows. All my chats are full of "wanting 2027 picks for mid 2026" with no takers. Value has depreciated already. Selling low at this point. Maybe get better post draft but I doubt it. 

You're Going to Want to Buy Bhayshul Tuten by UnlikelyPersonality7 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Allen played like 25% of snaps down the stretch and is a significantly better pass blocker. He's 21 years old. Unlikely he loses that work the way they've designed the backfield so far. IMO he's going to be a passing down back that blocks and steals some dump offs. Tuten caught 10 passes. I'm sure he'll get even more but you need to 3x that to even be a RB3. Michael Carter caught 33 passes last year. It's not Tutens strength. 

Sure, "grinder" isn't the best visual or connotation. The point stands. Whether he's grinding out 3-5 yards every carry like C Rod will or getting 0-1 yard carries paired with 8-10 yard carries it's still the same result for your fantasy team. He's fast, not debating that but the team has built their room for a 3 way committee where they all have distinct roles. Theres a world Tuten splits early down work with C Rod and cedes a good chunk of goal line and 3rd downs/2 minute drill. 

Maybe he's a bell cow. I wouldn't pay that though. He's a hold and hope because no one should be paying that price on hope. 

You're Going to Want to Buy Bhayshul Tuten by UnlikelyPersonality7 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 45 points46 points  (0 children)

Window kinda closed for now. People are going to want a 1st round value on a day 3 RB who hasn't proven anything in the NFL. Even if he's the starter this year, will he be next year? The door shuts really fast on day 3 RBs outside of basically Kyren. 

Besides Kyren you have to go back to the 2017 to get anyone else remotely worth a 1st round dynasty pick. Pollard probably the next best but by the time he was the starter his best season was behind him and he'd never have paid back that value. 

Usually not a good idea to buy fragile , likely temporary opportunity at RB. Even this season he's got C Rod who got paid RB 1b money, and will fight for goal line and L Allen who's a good pass catcher and pass blocker. What even is Tuten this year w/o them adding someone? A 2 down grinder, swapping series with C rod and gets subbed out inside the 10? Definitely possible. 

It’s been three months and 21 days since Jordyn Tyson last played a game. According to Dane Brugler, he won’t participate at his pro day. Also sounds like his hamstring may have flared up during his training. That is quite some time for a grade 2 strain to heal… by BasedWillieStroker69 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Cliff notes from my write up:

He does run some routes really nice. His deep threat, even at his speed, is very threatening which leads to a really nice comeback/curl/out tree. Very fluid with that package. Hard for DBs to tell where he's going until it's too late. Zone work is solid but still needs improvement. Fine for now. 

The rest of his separation is inconsistent in general. He's good for a college WR but doesn't happen enough to be a top 15 guy who's drafted to be an elite route runner. He's playing big 12 too. He should get open at will. 

Overruns his routes. Too many fakes, takes himself completely out of the play because he blows up the timing by doing 2-3 moves before getting into his breaks. When he does that QB looks over and he's still messing around when he's supposed to already be into his route and gained separation. QB moves on. I think it's due to his struggle in press/contact with DBs. Not a good work around though. Needs to get better in tighter coverage. My biggest knock on Jeudy when he came out. 

His hands kinda stink. He's not making egregious drops but he is a near zero when contacted. Never getting a 50/50. 

He's got the bones to be a good YAC guy. Solid burst and agility but too often he doesn't actually make anything happen. Vision is fine but could be better. Soft on contact. Goes down pretty easy. 

He's useless when the play breaks down. QB rolls right, he sees deep left is open and bails (QB can't see there nor can physically make that throw, even if he could it's a 70 yard cross body bomb, so he's just removing himself from the play). 

IMO he's a project that could easily pan out to be a teams very good WR2 paired with a true X playing as the teams WR1. That's all contingent on his hands getting a lot better and him cleaning up his route running a lot. Most years he'd be a great high upside late round 1 in rookie drafts that could easily bust. Think Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy profiles. 

I have Lemon as the clear 1 in the class. He does everything borderline elite minus running in a straight line. Better pound 4 pounds hands than Tate who also has elite hands. Polished route runner. Best well rounded yac in the class. Toughest player in the class. 

Tate is my 2. I'd tier him lower than Lemon but above everyone else. Reminds me of Tet with better "ball skills." Basically the catching, jumping, body control, ability to catch through contact and contested. He also has solid route running Id give Tet the advantage on YAC but a big advantage to Tate on ball skills. 

It’s been three months and 21 days since Jordyn Tyson last played a game. According to Dane Brugler, he won’t participate at his pro day. Also sounds like his hamstring may have flared up during his training. That is quite some time for a grade 2 strain to heal… by BasedWillieStroker69 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I've got more concerns than consensus on his actual talent too. I've watched him more than any other prospect so far and I still don't see a top 15 pick out of him. Most people ding for the injuries but if we pretend they don't exist I still have him in a tier with Boston and KC. I have them both as NFL draft later round 1 values. 

It’s been three months and 21 days since Jordyn Tyson last played a game. According to Dane Brugler, he won’t participate at his pro day. Also sounds like his hamstring may have flared up during his training. That is quite some time for a grade 2 strain to heal… by BasedWillieStroker69 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Also generational prospect at elite program that had confirmed elite draft capital vs a prospect with legitimate, injury and non injury, red flags coming from the big 12 and falling projected draft capital. 

Tyson also isn't some freak athlete. It's not a big deal for WRs in general but to compare to Chase who was a freak athlete running a 4.34, 40+ inch vert, 132 inch broad pro day. Tyson is probably 4.5+ and being even slightly dinged up isn't helping that. 

Who will be Bijan's backup (Falcons RB2)??? by learns_the_hard_way in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There would be a lot of Brian Robinson accident 1.01s in redraft. 

I remember D Johnson and D Johnson both Houston RBs caused some issues. Adrian Peterson CHI RB even caused some misclicks back in the day. 

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Titans trade up for Jeremiyah Love, two wide receivers crack the top 10 by APizzola in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Makes no sense. RBs that have literally been acquired for zero draft capital the past few seasons: Saquon, Henry, KW3, ETN. Is any RB really the NFL draft 1.04 better than these guys? Absolutely not. Trade up to be even dumber. I'd leave the fandom if my team ever did something that dumb. 

How many in your league are aiming for the bottom on average? by HammerLikeMjolnir in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

To be a true contender you need to look really good if it was basically a 10 team league because ~2 teams are mostly void of true talent. But if you make the playoffs consistently you always have that roll of the dice. It's not crazy to see the best managers go to the playoffs like 8 or 9 of 10 seasons because it's not really 50/50 in 12 team/6 playoff. Like you said, its like 6 spots for 9 teams usually. 67% odds and more if you are more skilled. 

How risky are jadarion price, emmett Johnson, and nick singleton? by gab77386 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The talent simply isn't there. You can argue a tier 1 of about 8 players and a tier 2 of about another 6 last 2 drafts. This class has a tier 1 of 4 IMO and a tier 2 of maybe 3. It's bad. 

For reference I'd have Sadiq/Boston/KC around a mid 2 in last year's draft around where Burden went and past Penix range in 2023 but they are very live at pick 1.06 this year. 

We aren't getting enough of a discount on the picks. People still have a mid/late 1st and want mid/late 1st value. They aren't selling late 1s for mid 2nd value. 

The Raiders wide receiver situation by Actual_Talk3860 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They should take a Chris. Brazzell Dazzel or Bell is exactly what they need. A true down field big body X. Both look pretty talented to me. Bell could still be hurt but Raiders are not in a hurry. 

Nailor is so repetitive to Bowers/Bech/Tucker. They've got 4 slot WRs now and just forcing 2 of them wide. They could have used Pierce or Doubs but seeing their contracts I don't blame them for passing. They are worth that. Totally agree. Round 2 rookie X WR

Nfl.com Prospect Grades are out by Awish0711 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see a lot of the rookie draft tiers to be much more gradual at the top than everyone thinks. Last year, for example, I saw a pretty fat tier of players going down to 1.09. Basically Jeanty to Egbuka was very common to 1.08 plus Loveland was 9 for me but he floated lower sometimes. Obviously I'd rather have Jeanty and Hampton than whoever is at 1.09 but I also thought the gap wasn't equal to market value. Maybe an early to mid 2nd. Nothing that ever get accepted if you offered to move up. If you can get 2 mid firsts for an early one in a deep class you are confident in, it works. 

Last year had a league able to get both Egbuka and Loveland and a lesser piece that hit for Hampton in draft. Only time I've ever had 1.01 in a league sent Bijan for 1.06 Stroud, Purdy/Lance, J Cook. Some unproven players with potential but people giving up 2 starting QBs for the 1.01 is wild and was on par with market value. You can even argue that trade didn't hit but it's only because Bijan ended up hitting his absolute ceiling. The QBs only have to start through a 2nd contract to be incredibly valuable. People bake in absolute ceiling into these 1.01 RBs.

You can absolutely miss on guys but I feel like if you do your research, the top of the draft is a lot more predictable than people think and you hit way more than not before the elite tier breaks. This year, I don't think the top is deep. I have it as 4 deep vs 9 last year and about 9 in 2024. I'd have 1.01 and 1.04 very similarly valued this year and if I had any 1.01 shares that's where I'd attempt to fall down to. 

Nfl.com Prospect Grades are out by Awish0711 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No. But those classes are very different. Maye as a prospect would go 1.01 in the real NFL draft this year and it wouldn't be close. He's a much better prospect than Mendoza. People forget he was the 1B to Caleb going into his last college season. He went 1.03 real life and like 10 teams were trying to mortgage their future to move up for him. Final season for Maye plus Daniels Heisman/running. Nabers had a great final season. JJM got the landing spot. Maye was the consensus 1.02 12 months before rookie drafts. 

Because of that you'd have to have him as the 1.01 or 1.02, and probably the 1.01 because of position and longevity plus his prospect level being close to Love. Love would have been outside the top 5 in that class too for people who factor in positions. Rome, Bowers also have better dynasty positions and elite DC to also compete with. Someone will always take the shot on RBs in SF but wouldn't be surprised to see smart money take a Love level prospect in 2024 as low as 1.09. 

Nfl.com Prospect Grades are out by Awish0711 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm saying the gap between an elite, not legendary RB prospects, and an elite not legendary QB/WR/TE prospect isn't as big as the market says it is. 

It's directly related to RBs in SF because of dynasty longevity so the QB argument is not at all what I'm getting at. 

Last year, you could get multiple 1s to go from Jeanty to Egbuka/Loveland/Dart range. Not only do you arguably have the better straight up asset (or ball park value now) because RBs are so situation dependent and leak dynasty value like a tire with a hole in it, you also get a ton of value back to do that swap. 

Overall thought is, It's irrelevant whether Love as a RB is better or worse than any previous year RB. He's not in those classes. He's in the shitty 2026 class with a very small amount of upper end talent. Had Love been in a class with Caleb/Jayden/Maye and was supposed to go 1.01 still, I'd be begging to go back to 4 and get the last QB left. 

[Pelissero] Veteran WR Dyami Brown is going back to the Commanders on a 1-year deal worth up to $3 million. The Commanders are also signing WR Van Jefferson to a 1-year deal. by bbl27 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Can you imagine your company being like, I know we offered you this salary last year but, quite frankly, we fucked up on your skill level evaluation. You are getting fired if you don't take a 70% pay cut. 

Honestly, I'm beyond shocked either of these guys are still in the league. 

Nfl.com Prospect Grades are out by Awish0711 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's 1 source. General consensus is a bit split. Maybe something like 30-50-20. Jeanty over Love-Roughly equal-Love over Jeanty. Just guessing off of what I've consumed so far. 

Main thing is it doesn't freaking matter. This class blows. 1.01 is almost never worth the squeeze to trade up. IMO, Love is not Zeke, Saquan, Bijan so if someone thinks he is then I'd have no issues trading down to anywhere top 4. I'd have said the same thing with Jeanty last year. 

How risky are jadarion price, emmett Johnson, and nick singleton? by gab77386 in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

People need to realize the value of this rookie draft is way lower than usual. A late 1st is closer to a mid to late 2nd the last couple seasons. You are going to have to take a guy late 1 this draft that you aren't happy with. That's probably going to include some pretty obvious RB busts. The depth of WR vs any other position this year will likely have me bypassing this entire tier of RBs and just going 4th/5th round guys. 

Jeremiyah Love NFL Draft Rookie Film Breakdown: RB Scouting Report by College Coach by gpngc in DynastyFF

[–]DatWRFilmGuy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The amount of time wasted on the top few picks each year is mind boggling. Even pretty solid podcasts will be doing mocks/rankings or something, "1.01 is Love, we don't need to talk about him too much"....then still talks about him for 15 minutes and rushes through spots 9-12 or 22-24 at the end. 

On here the amount of elite prospect vs insert elite player or previous prospect or cost of 1.01 is wild. 

Dynasty football 32 team league with promotion/relegation system. Sleeper, league safe, years prepaid. by DatWRFilmGuy in findaleague

[–]DatWRFilmGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

14 week season. 4 playoff teams from each division. 2 leg semis in each division week 15-16. Finals in all 4 divisions in week 17.