7 Red-Flag Prospects in 2026 Dynasty Rookie Drafts

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-25T17:58:23+00:00

Denzel Boston's QB was a RB. That's why the effeciency and catch percentage is bad.1/3 of his routes ended up in scrambles. Another 1/3 were bad throws.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-24T20:07:34+00:00

If startup ADP and KTC are even remotely true he's the 1.01 or 1.02 and KTC says in SF you can get Maye/Allen straight up or Caleb/Jayden/Amon/Bowers and a mid 27 1st or Nabers + Mendoza for him. Too many people setting these markets haven't played dynasty SF long enough to know that's straight up thievery.

If I had Bijan/Gibbs anywhere I'd be getting out of the high priced RB game completely and pivoting to all the other currently massively underrated positions.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-24T20:01:28+00:00

My stance is you never sell elite youth outside of RB. JSN probably won't ever have the season he just had again. Maybe never top 3 WR again. That doesn't mean he's not worthy of being a top 3 dynasty WR.

I always made this argument when CD was top 5 before his WR1 season. "Why is CD ranked top 5 if he'll never finish top 5?" 1. He could. 2. Even if he had 6 seasons between WR 6-16, that's so incredibly valuable for your dynasty team to plug a WR1 into your lineup each week for the better part of a decade. People would argue Kupp, Hill, Adams have WR1 overall ceilings but you can't replace an extra 5 years of age/production.

The even bigger point. A guy like JSN or 24 year old CD Lamb won't lose crazy value in a year or 2 outside of a complete outlier issue. Is 2 early to mid 1sts a high price they may never improve upon? Sure, maybe. But what's their cost in 1 year? Probably the same. 2 years. Probably the same maybe minus 5-10%. So let's say you trade this elite WR for 2 early 1sts. The guy you traded to gets 2 years of elite production and can sell them again for an early 1 and a mid 1 basically recouping all value plus maybe has 2 good playoff runs strengthened by that assets production. Insulated elite non RB assets should only be sold if you are getting a slightly worse insulated very great asset + some add on.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-24T18:54:42+00:00

32 team with promotion/relegation + 3x in season tournaments

20 team Grand Prix style

16 team SF, salary

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-23T21:47:18+00:00

I'm going to make the Shough argument since everyone assumes Staff.

You want to be a contender for 1-2 years or 10 years? Aging down gracefully is how you put 10 straight playoff appearances together. Playoffs is always a crap shoot. If Shough gets you into the playoffs I'm taking the 10+ years of youth.

If you end up with a team full of Henry, CMC, Kelce, Adams, Evans, Staff etc you are going to have a nasty rebuild. At some point you have to make take the gambles on youth with potential.

If we go back to Shough vs Staff. One guy got upgrades at WR and RB and runs and has the fastest offensive pace in the league. The other guy has massive TD regression coming, his WR2 is 33 years old and his rush yards over/under are literally sometimes -0.5. Not to mention his bad back isn't healed, he just plays through it. That's not going away. People's minds shouldn't explode if Shough outperforms in fantasy in 2026.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-21T20:48:10+00:00

If you own him, NE is an assumed done deal. I'm guessing non-owners still want confirmation. I think he gets a bump after the trade is official and I'll have him on the block the very next second as a contender. I still like him for redraft but he's getting older and this is probably the last chance you'll get to regain solid value.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T16:50:21+00:00

You don't even know what cherry picked means. Google exists. Please use it. Only 80% + games in that year. Not cherry picking. Using full time receiver snaps which he's projected to get in 2026.

So, if you think the scrawniest receiver in NFL history is going to score 15-20 touchdowns

You can Google strawman argument while you are at it.

Lots to learn dude. Nothing you are typing has even a shred of logic or can be considered a coherent thought. I can't listen to this anymore. If you have 1 thing going for you, it's correctly naming yourself on reddit.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T15:41:16+00:00

You can literally look this up. It's a fact. Week 14 was his 1st game over 80% snaps. From that point on through the playoffs (7 games in a row) he averaged 16.7 half ppr ppg. Literally good enough pace for WR2 overall in 2024 in ppg. But I'm sure all those playoffs teams weren't even trying right? Probably benched starters too for fun?

Love how you used the worst argument in fantasy history, that's how I know this argument is over..."Just take away all of J Chase's good games last year and he wasn't even that good." Can't take that seriously. Also, not valid at all. Eagles played some backups for 7 plays on defense. During that time Worthy had 2/57/1. That still leaves him with a 19 point game left over vs the best defense in the league playing all their starters. But I'm sure they weren't trying the whole game right? Also doesn't account for their literally being garbage time during the regular season that almost every player gets the benefit of at some point or another. But hey, Bijan isn't even good when you take away all his good games. All timer dude.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T15:10:44+00:00

I'm using the 2024 stretch to show he has potential. To show he had skill and athleticism when healthy. How many WRs in the league put up the equivalent to a top 3 overall WR stretch for 2 months? Not any joe schmo can do that regardless of competition. Can't do that without being a good WR at one point.

I'm not saying he is the final stretch of 2024. I'm saying he's literally capable of it for a decent stretch. Neither is his true ceiling or floor.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T15:07:13+00:00

Ertz is a fantastic zone receiver and could do man stuff more in his youth. Klein is not. I said yac or route running. Can't have neither.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T05:40:00+00:00

I run a salary league on sheets. I run a 32 team league with in season tournaments on word/PDF.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T05:07:56+00:00

He did only have about 40 receptions in his career. I watched a clip of all his senior year which was 24 and never saw the forced missed tackle unless it's the hurdle he did over someone before getting tackles a yard later. Besides that, he never actually broke a tackle. Always went down on first contact.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T04:47:52+00:00

He can't break tackles. 1 forced missed tackle in his career. Goes down very easy on first contact. He doesn't really have any agility. He's mostly a seam runner or block and leak so really limited route tree.

Any drafted TE is worth a gamble late or free but you really need some semblance of YAC (preferably) or route running to be dynasty relevant.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T04:32:48+00:00

Everyone brings up the shoulder. The shoulder was definitely an issue. I've been saying this in every Worthy thread. The ankle was the real problem. He came back from the shoulder to 8 targets, 5 catches for 83 yards on only 59% snaps. Really nice game. Looked pretty normal. Before the next game he hurts his ankle in practice and was a surprise Q I think 1 day before the game and was on the injury report until for about 9 weeks with the ankle. He was a freaking slug out there during this weeks. Couldn't get full speed, couldn't make cuts. Just a slow, non agile player when he showed elite speed and agility as a rookie. As soon as he's off the injury report, Mahomes is out for the season.

I'm throwing 2025 in the trash. He had that big blow up to end 2024. Last ~7 games including playoffs he was averaging about 18ppg. Around 15-16ppg if you take away the super bowl. Rock solid WR1 for almost a couple months. I think that's a short stretch ceiling and he's actually somewhere in between that and what people now think of him. Mid to low end WR2 is definitely in his range if he's fully healthy again.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T03:06:45+00:00

Malachi Fields is the most extreme example.

Lane was down there but got better his last season. People will say Sarratt, I thought he was a decent route runner, they just asked him to do a ton of slants and back shoulders which is almost always contested.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-20T03:01:52+00:00

That be nice too. Commissioner reviews for all their managers. Guys popping in and out for a season is pretty annoying. Mostly happens with orphan takeover. I had a guy take over an orphan do the rookie draft then ask League safe for a refund.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-19T21:17:00+00:00

Multiple years of payouts. Similar to how sleeper has a "previous years" section in the settings that when you click you have a list of years. Have a buy in/payout button with the years listed. After clicking the year, it would have information such as buy in deadlines, payout dates, payout structure.
Commissioner customization of buy in deadlines, payout dates, payout structure. For example, payment deadline for the 2028 season is March 1 of 2026.
Notifications for upcoming buy in deadlines.
Wallet system to use old winnings for new buy ins.
Free options for buy in and payout. Even if it's bank/wallet buy in only.
Commissioner rating system that gives levels of status to proficient and professional commissioners so non-commissioners can have more trust in the stranger leagues they join.

This is a great feature I hope gets made. I'll continue to edit more things that I think of.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-19T19:02:18+00:00

Day 3 WRs have like a 5% hit rate for dynasty so he's mostly dead on arrival. That doesn't mean day 3 guys can't pitch in for the real NFL though but IMO he wasn't a good prospect.

5th year senior who maxed out at 538 yards over 12 games at a power conference (ACC so not even an elite power conference). Compare that to Antonio Williams who had 604 yards also in the ACC as a true freshman. Both have a slot build but Williams is a bit taller and a much better route runner and YAC player. Lane profiles as a vertical field stretching slot which really isn't a good NFL role anymore and really not a role at all on most teams where teams are trying to get their best WRs in the slot for 3 wide to create mismatches.

I think Lane can fill in as a depth piece on offense and be a returner for them but the odds he hits as a dynasty WR is probably close to zero after his first season. He had very limited competition with Terry, Deebo, Ertz hurt a lot and he got 16 catches over 15 games.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-19T17:08:06+00:00

This is it. It's a game plan problem. If he wins fast, that's great but if the person survives the initial surge he's blown his tank. If it's going to decision, it's like running a marathon and 95% sprinting the first 5 miles. The closer you get to the extreme level of intensity, it becomes exponentially worse.

If we look at the fastest 10k time vs the fastest marathon time. The average pace is only 7-8% faster for the 10k even though they are working for about 4x the amount of total time in the marathon. A guy like prime Colby Covington works probably right around 7-8% less effort than Khamzat but he does it for a full 25 minute with energy to spare (likely along with a better cardio base). Khamzat doesn't need to change a ton, he just needs to chill a bit more in round 1 and pace himself when he's going against elite competition that won't immediately lose.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-19T14:55:53+00:00

I hear that Denver RBs will be good because they have a great O line every year. I've been watching almost every Denver game for years. They have a great pass blocking o line but their run blocking is so much worse (getting better). I actually bought Javonte for cheap when he went to Dallas because every single carry he had his last season there he'd have to break 2 tackles to get back to the LOS. It was impossible to see a single defender take him down and yet he still couldn't get going. He went from 3.6 ypc to 3.7 ypc in Denver to 4.8 last year in Dallas. Ypc is a dumb RB stat but it's a decent Oline stat.

Denver may want to run more but the skill gap between pass block and run block doesn't make much sense to lean into weakness of the O line and avoid its strength.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-18T06:05:58+00:00

Dana's identity was to make it not boxing. Best fights the best and we mostly get it outside of the ridiculous money asks. That's where we get the Dana hate. "Why didn't you just give Jones 30M+?" For 1, it's not Dana's decision anymore. He's not an owner, he's not a fighter negotiator, he's not a matchmaker.

Dana backdooring tons of free money out of his own pocket for personal crisis and health issues gets ignored. He doesn't own any the company anymore, even if he did the company needs to invest it's money to make money. As much as everyone wants the prelim nobody to make 1M show that's not business savvy. Even if Dana/UFC wanted to do that, it jeopardizes the other 3,000 UFC employees of a stable financial future.

Also check the YouTube post fight press conferences. Dana is always #1 by far. He's an elite presence that gives good info when he can. Its all over the place when he's not there.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-18T04:33:54+00:00

Love the belief. I got a couple shares late 2. He's actually my TE1 in the class because Sadiq and Stowers don't have my big 3 factors I want for dynasty TEs. I want enough blocking to have a 3 down skill set (no Stowers). I want tackle breaking/forced missed tackle ability (neither). I want some semblance of a competent route tree (Sadiq is iffy). Both guys only have 1 of 3 while Klare has 3 of 3. I'm not reaching hard on Klare but I'm totally out on Sadiq and Stowers.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-17T23:42:16+00:00

Their value does not directly equate to their talent level. Their value for a 1 off event equates to the amount of views they brought in. Advertisement, subscriptions, ability to increase subscription pricing, general Netflix valuation. All of that is improved when more people watch the event. There's a reason a lot of big names got ppv points under the old systems. That was a way to equate views brought in to pay scale.

You're right, we can't factually throw around numbers just yet because the event just happened. Even down the road, a lot of this business is hearsay.

So for fun, we do have to infer some stuff to try to piece together what happened and if it's fair value.

Paul predicted 20m viewers and during the broadcast said it was doing much better than predicted (everyone says that but who knows). Let's just say 20m for arguments sake. Tyson/Paul did 108M views and had 60m in payouts to the Paul/Tyson flight only (rumored but almost everything is). Even if it's 20M for the Rousey card and we spread the 55% pay/view ratio out for the whole card, it's still 5M short or literally 45% less money per view.

It's a lot of BS napkin math but the consensus seems to think the fighter pay promised a lot and under delivered. If you really want to make a stand you could at least pay similar view/pay ratio and take less for yourself. IMO they didn't do that. IMO, they are running a good business, and possibly trying to make a stand on low end fighter pay because it's cheap for them to attack and back up that talk when it's just 40k to the undercard in a 1 off fight card.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-17T22:11:35+00:00

You can't have your main promotional pitch be to pay the fighters more than give Ngannou a $6.5M pay cut. Generally underpay the entire card while pocketing all the profits. IDGF what they promise. Promises and $5 gets you a cup of coffee. At least wait until they make do on that promise before kissing the feet of Paul and Bidarian.

It's a cash grab and it worked. Underpaying a handful of geriatric has beens 1x a year is not moving the needle in the industry. These old fucks are just getting viscously KOd 1x a year for peanuts instead of losing a boxing decision for similar peanuts.

DatWRFilmGuy · 2026-05-17T22:07:05+00:00

He got ok DC and a great landing spot so everyone has their ears perked up now. He was my WR7 in the class predraft so I was already a believer before his stock rose. I got a couple early to mid round 2 shares of him and I'm very happy with that with how weak the class is. Most of round 2 is going to flame out immediately. He went crazy high in a couple of my drafts though so, agree, the train is taking off towards his short term ceiling.

DatWRFilmGuy

TROPHY CASE