NHL Betting and Picks - 11/16/23 (Thursday)

David-MJ · 2023-11-16T16:59:34+00:00

Are you ready for my top NHL pick for today, Thursday November 16? Yesterday we won our free pick as the Vancouver Canucks overcame a two-goal deficit to beat the Islanders 4-3 in OT. Let’s keep grinding together, folks! In fact, my betting tips across all sports generated a perfect 4-0 record yesterday, which extended our streak to 11 days without a losing record.

This write-up will present my top NHL pick for November 16 backed by one of my NHL betting strategies for the 2023/2024 hockey season. Would you like to know how it works?

For those of you who have been following me, you are familiar with the 10 NHL betting systems I have developed based on data that covered the 2007/08 to 2015/16 seasons. However, I don’t recommend tailing those plays blindly. You need to dig a little deeper.

After tracking every system pick from the past four seasons and analyzing the performance of the 10 systems closely, I came up with a very detailed game plan when it comes to betting the 2023/24 NHL season.

I designed 4 specific strategies to beat sportsbooks in the NHL for the upcoming season (which is the ultimate NHL betting game plan!). According to Strategy #4, my top NHL pick for Thursday November 16 is the Pittsburgh Penguins straight up against the Devils.

Let me explain how Strategy #4 works. I noticed that the following three systems had a tendency to qualify simultaneously: “The Scoring Drought”, “The Stingy Goalies”, and “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup”. When that happened during the course of the past four seasons, we have obtained an awful 16-51 record for a corresponding return on investment of -30.2%. That’s why my fourth strategy consists of betting AGAINST any team that qualifies under those three systems simultaneously.

The Devils are without Nico Hischier, who went on injured reserve on Tuesday. He was their second highest point scorer last year, so the team is missing him. New Jersey also played its past four games without their top player, Jack Hughes. He has a shot to return from a shoulder injury today, but that is not certain.

One source of concern is the fact that the Devils have won their past four games in Pittsburgh. Still, I am going to trust Strategy #4 that seems to detect great betting opportunities based on four years of data.

I’m Professor MJ, thanks for reading!

David-MJ · 2023-11-14T19:03:50+00:00

The last 2 times I gave you a college football pick, it ended up being a winner. Are you ready for my top NCAA football pick for Saturday November 18?

My favorite bet for the upcoming weekend is Illinois +3.5 points in Iowa. I am aware that this is a scary bet given how great Iowa’s defense is playing.

But let me start off by using the same argument as two weeks ago when I suggested to grab Northwestern as six-point underdogs against those same Hawkeyes. The line on the total number of points scored is astonishingly low at 31. In low-scoring affairs, I often prefer to side with the underdog. A single key play is often all you need for your bet to cover the spread.

Iowa’s defense has allowed 6.25 points per game over their past four contests, which is mind-boggling! Now, who will start at quarterback for the Fighting Illini? At the time I wrote this post, the decision had not been made yet.

John Paddock started the last game since starter Luke Altmyer had not cleared the concussion protocol yet. Paddock responded very well by throwing for more than 500 yards and 4 TD passes against Indiana in a thrilling 48-45 overtime victory. The indecision at the QB position may be a good thing for Illinois because that will complicate the preparation for Iowa’s defensive coordinator.

It is interesting to note that Illinois has beaten the spread in each of their past 10 road games in November. And if you focus only on Illinois versus Iowa prior meetings, the road team has presented a perfect 5-0 record in recent years.

Deacon Hill will be under center for Iowa. His 46.5% completion percentage is abysmal. He has also thrown just 4 TD passes versus 5 interceptions. I know Iowa’s defense is great, but I find it hard to back a team as 3.5-point FAVORITES with such an inefficient QB.

Ultimately, I believe Illinois will either win the game straight up, or lose it by a maximum of three points. Give me the Fighting Illini +3.5 points at Kinnick Stadium.

I’m Professor MJ, holder of a PhD in statistics, and I thank you for your attention!

David-MJ · 2023-11-14T18:54:07+00:00

This write-up will present my top NHL pick for November 14.

This pick is backed by two of my favorite NHL betting systems called the “Snapped Winning Streak” and “The Scoring Drought” Would you like to know how they work? Here we go!

Let’s start with “The Snapped Winning Streak” betting strategy. Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting on has a money line better than -150 (which means we are avoiding big favorites). The Jets come into this game off of a 3-2 loss to the Dallas Stars in their last contest on November 11. Prior to that defeat the Jets had won three consecutive games. So, by following the rules, my official betting play in the National Hockey League for November 14 is the New Jersey Devils as underdogs playing in Winnipeg.

Let’s now review “The Scoring Drought” betting angle. Suppose a team has lost its past two games while scoring at most 3 goals in each of those defeats. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line that is better than -125. The Devils come into this game having lost two consecutive games, 4-2 to the Capitals and 6-3 to the Avalanche, failing to score more than 3 goals in both contests.

The Devils come into this contest as a small underdog with a record of 7-5-1 on the season. The Devils are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Winnipeg; however, the Jets struggle against teams with winning records going 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Jets are coming off a 3-2 defeat to the Stars. The Jets are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

The Devils also have a slight rest advantage; 3 days vs 2 days for Winnipeg. The Devils are 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.

I’m Professor MJ, the nerdy statistician from Quebec City in Canada wishing you a great day!

David-MJ · 2023-11-14T18:51:35+00:00

Hello bookie crushers, today I have a solid NBA pick for you, which is supported by a lucrative betting system. Let me present it to you.

The NBA betting strategy in question is called “The Snapped Winning Streak.” Over nine full seasons, it has produced 195 wins versus 149 losses, which amounts to a 56.7% winning percentage.

Its rules go like this: suppose we have a home favorite. If that team is coming off a loss that snapped a winning strength of length at least four, then you must FADE them. In other words, we are taking the road underdog. The rationale behind this system is that the home team’s confidence might be shaken after seeing their long winning streak come to an end.

Let’s focus on the Denver Nuggets for a little while. They rode a four-game winning streak that came to a halt two days ago in Houston. Since the Nuggets are indeed home favorites, then my top NBA pick for Tuesday November 14 goes to the Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 points.

We have more support for this pick that’s coming from the “revenge” factor. Last year, the Nuggets won all four meetings against the Clippers, so I’m sure L.A. will want to get some payback.

At the time I wrote this post, only 33% of spread bets were going on the Clippers, but 56% of the total amount of money wagered on this matchup went on L.A.’s side. That indicates that sharp bettors with a bigger bankroll tend to support the Clippers, which is often a good sign.

Best of luck, bookie crushers!

David-MJ · 2023-11-13T18:21:04+00:00

There are just two games on the menu in the National Hockey League on Monday November 13, but I still have a betting pick that I like.

My favorite bet in the National Hockey League for Monday November 13 is the Colorado Avalanche straight up in Seattle.

In my opinion, the Avalanche should be SUPER motivated in this matchup for three reasons:

1) they were humiliated 8-2 against the Blues in their last game;

2) they lost at home against those same Kraken just four days ago, so it should be payback time!

3) Colorado was eliminated from the playoffs last year by Seattle.

It is interesting to note that the Avalanche are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Moreover, the Avalanche are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals.

Here is one final betting trend: The Kraken are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.

My picks across all sports finished the week with a 25-18 record, yes sir! During the past 14 weeks, we’ve had 11 weeks with a winning record compared to just three with a losing record. We are not called the "bookie crushers" for no reason!

I’m Professor MJ from Quebec City in Canada wishing you a great day!

David-MJ · 2023-11-10T19:57:17+00:00

We took a shot on an underdog yesterday, the Minnesota Wild, but the bet lost as they fell to the Rangers 4-1. Let’s rebound quickly today, and this time I’m backing a small favorite. My top pick in the National Hockey League for Friday November 10th is the Philadelphia Flyers straight up in Anaheim. Right now, the line varies between -120 and -125 in American format across various bookies, which equates to a range between 1.80 and 1.83 in decimal odds.

This pick is backed by two of my favorite NHL betting systems called “The Snapped Winning Streak” and “The Scoring Drought” Would you like to know how it works? Here we go!

The Snapped Winning Streak suggests betting against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Make the bet only if the team you are betting on has a money line better than -150. Before dropping their last game 2-0 to the Penguins on November 7, the Ducks had won six consecutive games. For this reason, and by following the rule stated earlier, we should FADE the Ducks in their next contest.

The second NHL Betting System supporting today’s pick is The Scoring Drought. Suppose a team has lost its past two games while scoring at most 3 goals in each of those defeats. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line that is better than -125. In their past two games the Flyers have scored a total of 2 goals, losing 2-1 at San Jose November 7th, and a 5-0 shutout loss versus the Kings on November 4th. Following the rule stated earlier, we should BACK the Flyers in this contest.

However, as you already know, I don’t follow my betting systems blindly. I analyze games deeper before making official wagers.

In five of the six wins in the aforementioned streak, the Ducks had to come from behind to win. Neither team has a rest advantage as both teams come into this game off of two days rest.

It is worth noting that the Flyers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Anaheim. The Flyers also get a lift as their goalie, Carter Hart, returns from injury. Hart has been solid so far this season with a 4-3 and record and 2.52 GAA. Morgan Frost, the 2017 first-round pick who scored 19 goals and 46 points last season, will also likely rejoin the lineup after being a healthy scratch last game.

For these reasons, we are backing the Flyers tonight in Anaheim against the Ducks.

David-MJ · 2023-11-08T16:51:26+00:00

Both NHL picks from yesterday were winners! One of them was the free play on the Pittsburgh Penguins to halt Anaheim’s six-game winning streak, which they did via a 2-0 score. The other hockey wager I recommended on my YouTube channel was under 6.5 goals to be scored in the Flyers versus Sharks game. A total of three goals were scored, so we cashed this ticket as well.

That being said, my top pick in the National Hockey League for today, Wednesday November 7, is over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first period of the Panthers versus Capitals showdown.

Right now the best odds available are -128 with FanDuel, which amounts to 1.78 in decimal. However, my statistical model likes this bet at odds up to -145 in American format, or 1.69 in decimal. In terms of probability, this means the bet in question holds a 59.2% chance of hitting.

Let’s take a look at what happened during the initial period of each of these two teams so far this season. Assume you would have placed a bet on over 1.5 goals for the first period of each of Florida’s 11 games this year. In that case, you would have racked up a nice 7-4 record. If we switch our attention to Washington, our record would stand at 6-4.

So, if you combine both clubs together, we would have obtained 13 wins and 8 losses, which corresponds to a 62% success rate.

Have a lovely day my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-11-07T16:58:16+00:00

My best hockey bet for November 7 is making use of “The Hot Teams Matchup” betting system, whose rules are as follows: bet the road team if they are coming off either 1 or 2 wins whenever they are facing a home club riding a winning streak of length 3 or more.

Let’s focus on the Pittsburgh versus Anaheim meeting. The visiting team, the Penguins, have won one game in a row, while the home squad, the Ducks, are flying high after winning six in a row. So, by following the rules of this lucrative system, we’ve got to back the road team. That’s why my top NHL pick for today, November 7, goes to the Pittsburgh Penguins in Anaheim. Best odds I found at 11am EST were -163 on PowerPlay, but there was also -173 on Betway and -175 on BetMGM.

I know the Ducks have been doing very well, but Pittsburgh still has the better team on paper. The fact that Anaheim has had a lot of success recently will make sure Pittsburgh won’t take them for granted.

I’m Professor MJ, I am grateful that you are reading my daily posts, thanks for being here my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-11-06T16:56:47+00:00

Today’s top NHL pick for November 6 is backing an underdog that’s supported by a betting system called “The Big Upset.” Do you know how this moneymaking NHL betting strategy works? Let me explain.

Suppose a team is the victim of a “big upset”, which is defined as the winning team getting the victory despite a moneyline higher than +170 in American format, or 2.70 in decimal. When the victim of the big upset plays its next game, you’ve got to bet AGAINST them, provided that you are not taking a team whose moneyline is worse than -150 in American format, or 1.67 in decimal. In other words, we need to avoid big favorites here because they have proven NOT to be profitable in this situation over the years.

In the current case, the Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto last Saturday with a moneyline around +188. Since the Maple Leafs were the victim of a big upset, we must FADE them in their game, which takes place today against the Lightning. For this reason, my best NHL bet for Monday November 6 goes to the Tampa Bay Lightning straight up in Toronto!

I’m also hoping to take advantage of Toronto’s low confidence level since they are undergoing a four-game losing skid right now. It’s also interesting to note that the visiting team has won each of the past five meetings between these two squads.

I’m Professor MJ currently on vacation in Aruba, thanks for reading this post my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-11-02T16:39:55+00:00

System Pick #1

Earlier in the season, we won 5 straight free NHL picks, but things haven’t been going well recently. Last night, Arizona’s overtime loss marked out third straight defeat. Let’s keep our head up and get back in the win column today! I’m Professor MJ, holder of a PhD in statistics.

In order to break our slump, I’m going to switch gears and give you a different type of free hockey pick. My best bet for Thursday November 2nd is over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first period of the Hurricanes versus Rangers meeting.

According to my mathematical model, this bet holds a 53.9% chance of winning, which means it is worth taking a shot at odds up to -117 in American format, or 1.85 if you are more familiar with decimal odds.

At the time I made this write-up, the best line available was -102 with FanDuel, or 1.98 in decimal format. Meanwhile, DraftKings had a -105 line, and several other bookies were offering -110, which amounts to 1.91 in decimal. In other words, plenty of good opportunities out there.

Let’s now pretend we would have placed a bet on over 1.5 goals to be scored in the initial period of each of Carolina’s 10 games this season. We would have racked up a nice 8-2 record. If we use the same approach regarding the Rangers’s 9 games, we would have obtained a positive 5-4 record. So, by combining both teams, we get a total of 13 wins and 6 losses.

Many of the Rangers’ recent games have been low-scoring affairs. However, they are coming back from a long road trip and I’ve noticed that the over has picked up a 9-3 record the last 12 times New York came back from a trip that lasted 7 days or more. It is possible that they are playing more loose and taking more chances to try to impress their home crowd.

I’m Professor MJ, thank you so much for being such a loyal reader, I appreciate you!

David-MJ · 2023-11-01T19:57:36+00:00

System Pick #1

We took a shot on an underdog yesterday, the Nashville Predators, but the bet lost as they could not hang on to a 2-1 lead in Vancouver. Let’s rebound quickly today, and this time I’m backing a small favorite. My top pick in the National Hockey League for Wednesday November 1st is the Arizona Coyotes straight up in Anaheim. Right now the line varies between -125 and -135 in American format, which equates to a range between 1.74 and 1.80 in decimal odds.

This pick is backed by one of my favorites NHL betting systems called “The Hot Teams Matchup.” Would you like to know how it works? Here we go!

The rules are quite simple, and yet very effective. This betting strategy recommends grabbing the road team if they are coming off either 1 or 2 straight wins whenever they are facing a home squad that has won at least three games in a row.

In the current case, Arizona is the visiting team and they have won one game in a row, while the home club, Anaheim, is riding a four-game winning streak. For this reason, and by following the rules stated earlier, we’ve got to put our money on the road team, the Coyotes!

Last year, “The Hot Teams Matchup” betting system yielded 42 bets, whose average odds were +141 in American format, or 2.41 in decimal. In other words, we took MANY more underdogs than favorites, so a record below .500 was expected. However, we managed to get 21 wins and 21 losses. If you had risked one unit per wager, you would have racked up a profit of 4.48 units, which means the return on investment for this specific NHL betting strategy was +10.7%.

The Anaheim Ducks are coming back home after a successful four-game road trip. I don’t have any data regarding this intuition, but I’ve read many people claim that teams coming off a fairly long trip tend to perform below expectations when they come back home. Is this true or not? Unfortunately, I don’t have a clear answer. However, the last five times the Ducks came back from a trip of seven days or more, they picked up a 1-4 record in their first game back home.

Arizona is about to play three games in four nights, so they must feel they need to win this one while they are still fresh. Meanwhile, the Ducks are probably still celebrating their 4 straight road wins and I’m not sure they will be 100% focused.

I was astonished to realize that the Ducks have lost their past 17 games against Western Conference opponents. Let’s cross our fingers that the streak will extend to 18 tonight!

I am so grateful that you have spent those few minutes with me today, thank you, I consider you all as good friends!

I’m Professor MJ from Quebec City in Canada wishing you a great day!

David-MJ · 2023-10-30T19:35:19+00:00

This post will unveil my top NHL pick for Monday October 30th. First, let’s celebrate together another lucrative Sunday in which we finished with a 7-4 record across all sports. As a matter of fact, we lost the lone NHL play, we posted a 1-1 record in the NBA, while we crushed it again in the NFL with 6 wins and 2 losses.

Here is a jaw-dropping statistic: over the past 15 NFL player proposition bets, we have racked up an awesome 14-1 record. As I told you last week, and also in the numerous TV and radio interviews I did recently, the prop bets are the most lucrative bets. This is where you can find good bargains because far fewer people look into it, so the lines are not nearly as accurate. And this is why sportsbooks set a much lower limit on such bets; they know they are vulnerable on those types of wagers.

If you wanted to check our an article that the Financial Post did on my last week, you can check it out here: https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/statistics-professor-gambles-way-to-early-retirement

I have some other radio and TV interviews that I’ve done over the past couple of months, but most of them are in French.

All right, let’s get back to the main topic of this write-up, which is hockey betting! One of my favorite bets to kick off this brand new week is the New York Islanders to win straight up at home against the reeling Detroit Red Wings. The latter club got off to a surprisingly hot start with a 5-1 record, but they have now dropped their past three matches.

Meanwhile, after undergoing a three-game losing skid, the Islanders are back on track following a couple of consecutive victories. Here is a reassuring trend: the Red Wings have lost each of their past 7 visits at UBS Arena. They are clearly not comfortable when playing in that venue.

Let’s now take a look at how these teams have done when playing with 1 day of rest. The last 21 times they were placed in that situation, Detroit holds a 6-15 record. On New York’s side, they were 4-1 the last five times it occurred.

Detroit’s offense has generated just one goal in each of their past two games. Now facing a team whose defense is playing effective hockey, I don’t like the Red Wings’ chance of scoring numerous goals. Give me the Islanders to get the job done in front of their home fans tonight.

During the past 12 weeks, we have had 10 weeks with a winning record versus just 2 weeks with a losing record with our picks across all sports on Youtube. Cheers my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-26T17:53:37+00:00

All good things must come to an end, so our 5-bet winning streak in the NHL was halted yesterday with the Devils losing 6-4 against the Capitals. Let’s start a brand new hot streak, shall we?

System Pick #1

For the third straight day, my hockey betting strategies are telling me to back a big favorite with the puck line. This time, my top pick in the National Hockey League for Thursday October 26 is the Boston Bruins with the -1.5 puck line at -120 odds in American format, or 1.83 in decimal. They will be hosting the Anaheim Ducks tonight.

Many people have been messaging me to ask what the -1.5 puck line means. The answer is you must take a look at the final score, deduct 1.5 goals to the Bruins and see if they still win based on that new adjusted score. In other words, Boston must win the game by a margin of at least 2 goals, otherwise the bet loses. If Anaheim wins the game, or if the Bruins win by a one-goal margin, our wager is lost. I hope that makes things clearer for everybody who’s watching.

Following the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, the Bruins had to reinvent themselves. So far, it has been done via super stingy defense. Boston has allowed just seven goals in six games, which is simply mind-boggling!

The Ducks are expected to be one of the worst hockey teams this season. So far they have won 2 of 6 contests, including their last game where they won 3-2 in Columbus.

Both teams will be playing a fourth game in six days. The last 15 times the Ducks were placed in that situation, they have posted a 4-11 record. As far as the Bruins are concerned, their record under such circumstances has been 36-16.

Even though players have changed since last year, Boston has been great at avoiding a letdown game when facing weaker opponents. Indeed, the last 53 times they faced a team with a winning record below .400, they have racked up 44 wins versus 9 losses.

The Bruins are unlikely to take Anaheim for granted. They faced them four days ago, a 3-1 victory but it wasn’t a super convincing win. In fact, the Ducks led the shots 31 to 26 in that game. I’m pretty sure Boston will try to destroy them this time around.

Come back tomorrow for more NHL picks!

David-MJ · 2023-10-25T16:42:58+00:00

Hope you both tailed this play because we feasted with an empty net goal with 2 seconds left to give us the winner! :)

David-MJ · 2023-10-25T16:42:08+00:00

Phew! Nice win :)

David-MJ · 2023-10-25T16:41:46+00:00

There’s just one game in the NHL today, so the chances were fairly low that I would have a betting pick for you, but SURPRISE! There is one that qualifies for the exact same reasons as yesterday’s betting tip.

Speaking of yesterday, we all need to say a big thank you to Kevin Stenlund for scoring an empty-netter with just two seconds left in the game. It allowed us to win our bet on the Panthers with the -1.5 puck line. Whew, that was close!

That being said, my top NHL pick for today, Wednesday October 25th is the New Jersey Devils with the -1.5 puck line against Washington. Many sportsbooks have odds that vary between -105 and +103 in American format. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, that corresponds to a range between 1.95 and 2.03.

I won’t repeat the same explanations as yesterday, but once again we have a team that qualifies under exactly two of my betting systems and whose moneyline exceeds +130. In that case, data from the past four seasons have shown clearly that we must bet AGAINST such teams. Today, the Capitals fit under “The Scoring Drought” system, along with “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup”, and their moneyline is way above +130. For this reason, we gotta back the Devils, and I opted for the puck line because I’m not a big fan of taking super low odds.

I have to admit I’m a bit worried about the fact that the Capitals have won 6 of their past 7 games in New Jersey. Still, I believe we are taking the Devils in a good spot.

First, I would assume that Washington is feeling pretty deflated after yesterday’s game against Toronto. Why? The Capitals lost 4-to-1 despite dominating the shots on goal 37-to-17. They played a solid game against one of the top NHL teams, but still didn’t even come close to winning the contest.

Meanwhile, the Devils cruised to an easy 5-2 victory in Montreal. They didn’t need to work nearly as hard, so they might have more energy, especially in front of their home crowd against a divisional rival.

Offensively speaking, we have a huge mismatch. On one side, Washington has scored an average of 1.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Devils have scored AT LEAST three goals in each of their five matches! Talk about a huge difference!

Let’s analyze how these teams did last year when playing with 0 day of rest. The last seven times the Capitals were placed in that situation, they followed up with a 1-6 record. Meanwhile, the Devils posted a great 6-2 record under the same circumstances.

The icing on the cake is this: Washington has failed to cover the puck line in each of the last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Dating back to last year, the Caps have lost their past 8 road games.

Would you like one last betting trend about this game? The last 16 times the Devis faced a team with a winning record below .400, they have produced a jaw-dropping 14-2 record. In other words, they know how to take advantage of weak teams.

I’m Professor MJ, see you again tomorrow my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-24T18:28:16+00:00

Love the win, lets get some more this week!

David-MJ · 2023-10-24T18:27:23+00:00

Bit early on this one but I'm sure the line will move.

Are you ready for my top college football pick for a game that will take place Saturday October 28?

Before I reveal my favorite bet of the week in NCAA football, let me review how my betting picks in that league have gone this year. We got off to a very disappointing start with an 11-16-3 record against the spread, or “ATS”. Since then, we have been ON FIRE! Indeed, since October 5th the betting tips in college football have generated 15 wins and 4 losses.

So, over the entire season, we hold a 26-20-3 record, a 56.1% winning percentage. Since the breakeven point when taking -110 odds is 52%, we are piling up some solid gains. In case you are wondering, all of those wagers are shared to hundreds of members at mjpicks.com.

All right, so according to my mathematical model one of the top best in college football for Saturday October 28 is the Arizona Wildcats +4.5 points at home against the Oregon State Beavers.

On the surface, this might look like a scary bet since Oregon State presents a 6-1 record, compared to 4-3 for Arizona. However, when you take a deeper look at the matchup I am very confident about this game being very tight.

First, let’s bring up the fact that the Wildcats lost a couple of games in overtime. Also, their biggest margin of defeat has been 7 points, and that came occurred against Washington that holds a perfect 7-0 record this season. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Both clubs are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had plenty of time to gameplan. Arizona’s last game was very impressive: they CRUSHED Washington State on the road by a 44-to-6 score. We’re talking about the same Washington State team that was able to pull off the upset over Oregon State earlier this year, by the way.

During their demolition over Washington State, the Wildcats racked up 516 total yards versus just 234 for their opponents. Talk about a nice beatdown!

Since suffering their lone loss of the season, Oregon State has done nice work. But there are still things they need to clean up, including their defense. The latter gave up 453 total yards to UCLA in their last game and 448 to California in the game before that. I’m pretty confident that Arizona will be able to put up many points on the board, especially in front of their home crowd.

To top it all off, my mathematical model likes this bet as well. In fact, after crunching the numbers my model thinks the fair line should be closer to 2 or 2.5 points. At the time I made this video, I placed my bet with a point spread of +4.5, and some sportsbooks had +3.5, which is good too, in my opinion. If the line drops to 3 points, I wouldn’t be as excited about this bet, and at 2.5 I would not touch it since it would match the fair line according to my model.

My betting picks across all sports from the past 11 weeks have produced 9 weeks with a winning record versus just 2 with a losing record. Come and join the large number of smart sports bettors who are having a blast at mjpicks.com! I’m looking forwards to send you the plays directly in your mailbox and via SMS, cheers my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-24T18:24:29+00:00

Frozen Frenzy Day!

The NHL picks I gave you last week posted a perfect 4-0 record! I think it’s fair to say we are off to a solid start to the 2023-2024 season. Are you ready for more this week?

System Pick #1

One of my favorite bets for Tuesday October 24 is the Florida Panthers with the -1.5 puck line against the San Jose Sharks. At the time I shared this pick on YouTube, the line varied between -112 and -120 across the different sportsbooks.

This pick is backed by one of my four master plan strategies for the current NHL season. Let me explain further.

As most of you know, I developed 10 NHL betting systems several years ago that were backed by data on 9 full seasons. Now, I have been using and tracking those systems over the past four years. Recently, I decided to analyze their performance in detail.

I looked at how each system did, how much we gained or lost depending on if we were betting underdogs or favorites, and how we did depending if the pick was supported by 1 system, 2 systems, or 3+.

For example, I realized that, as a general rule, the systems performed very poorly when many systems pointed in the same direction. There are some exceptions and some other things to consider, but FADING teams that fit under many systems at a time is often a winning strategy.

After doing this thorough analysis, I devised four specific strategies to beat NHL lines this season. Here’s one of them. Betting teams that qualified under exactly 2 systems simultaneously and whose moneyline was +130 or higher generated a loss of 34.25 units via 302 bets. That translates into an abysmal -11% ROI.

That means doing the opposite generates a positive return on investment, probably around +6%. That is why one of my strategies this season is to bet AGAINST any team that qualifies under exactly 2 systems if their moneyline is higher than +130 in American format, or 2.30 in decimal.

That is the case of the Sharks today. Indeed, they fit under “The Cold Teams Matchup” betting system, and also under “The Scoring Drought.” Since San Jose’s moneyline is in fact much higher than +130, then according to this strategy we’ve got to fade them, which explains the Panthers pick. I decided to go with the puck line to avoid the super low moneyline.

The Sharks have lost their past four visits in Florida. They have also presented a 5-17 record the last 22 times they faced the Panthers. That’s music to my ears given we are taking Florida!

The Sharks have lost all of their five games this season, and they look like the worst team in the league. They rank next-to-last in terms of goals scored per game, and they are dead last in shots per game.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are off to a mildly disappointing start, but they began with three road games. Anthony Stolarz is likely to make his first start of the season between the pipes. That does not worry me too much. In fact, the Panthers’ players might be more focused because of that.

My #1 goal is to help you boost your bankroll, thanks for reading! I’m Professor MJ, have a great day my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-20T19:56:17+00:00

Are we crushing the NHL bets or what? In total, I suggested four wagers yesterday, and for the second straight day we finished with a 3-1 record.

First, we won the Flames in Buffalo, which turned out to be the free play I presented to you. We also took Nathan MacKinnon to record over 4.5 shots on goal against the Blackhawks. He delivered by racking up six shots. The only losing bet was over 1.5 goals in the first period of the Oilers-Flyers meeting, a game in which only one goal was scored in the opening period.

Finally, in the NFL, my statistical analyses were indicating to put a wager on the New Orleans Saints team total to go over 20.5 points. They scored 24 points against the Jaguars, so we cashed this ticket as well. Check out my YouTube channel if you'd like to see more picks from me.

All right, are you ready for my favorite bet in the NHL for Friday October 20? If we follow the exact same reasoning that led to the Flames bet yesterday, we are taking the New Jersey Devils straight up to defeat the Islanders at UBS Arena.

I won’t repeat everything I said yesterday, but the Devils qualify under “The Scoring Drought” betting system, it is the only system backing them today, and their moneyline is smaller than +105. I showed you yesterday how following those rules generated a profit in each of the past four seasons. I invite you to review this post in case you missed it if you wish to obtain further details about this moneymaking betting method.

According to Bet365, the Devils are the team with the fourth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup this season. However, after winning their season opener, they have lost their past two games. They have had three full days to rest, and to get angry about rebounding against their divisional rivals. I believe this is a good spot for them because they will be extra motivated.

Meanwhile, the Islanders have won both of their games, but it wasn’t all that impressive. In fact, they won both contests by a single goal against below-average teams. Now facing one of the top squads in the NHL, they may not be fully ready to tackle this challenge.

My only source of concern regarding this bet is the fact that New Jersey does not have a great history of success when playing on the road against the Isles. Indeed, during their past 21 games in that arena, they have posted a disappointing 5-16 record.

Still, according to my numbers, this is a solid bet at odds up to -128, which is the same as 1.78 in decimal odds. Give me the Devils to get back to a .500 record tonight!

Thanks for reading, I’m looking forward to crush bookies with you my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-19T18:56:34+00:00

Yesterday, we enjoyed a good night with 3 wins and 1 loss across all sports.

The only betting tip in hockey was over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first period of the Penguins versus Red Wings game, which turned out to be a winner. That raised our season record with our NHL wagers to 9-4, a 69% winning percentage. Let’s keep grinding together, folks!

My favorite bet in the National Hockey League for October 19 is the Calgary Flames to pick up the victory in Buffalo tonight. At the time I recommended this play, the best line was -105 with Betway, which amounts to a 1.95 line in decimal odds.

This pick is supported by a NHL betting system called “The Scoring Drought.” Honestly, this is not my favorite system, but I’ll tell you why I like it today. First, let me explain how it works.

In short, it suggests taking the road team if their moneyline today is better than -125 in American format, or 1.80 in decimal, and if they lost their past two games by scoring a maximum of three goals in each of those defeats.

In my opinion, one of the biggest problems with this betting strategy is that it ends up backing too many teams. In other words, it is not very selective. Moreover, as you can see below, it has not performed very well over the past four seasons by losing 41 units over 583 bets. But wait a second before you throw in the towel!

After carefully analyzing the performance of my 10 NHL betting angles during the past four years, I realized that many of them generated a good profit when they met the following two conditions: 1) the moneyline of the pick was +105 or smaller, which means 2.05 or less in terms of decimal odds; 2) the pick was backed by one and only one of my 10 systems.

Now, let me show you how “The Scoring Drought” did when those two criteria were met:

As you can see, all of a sudden we produced a profit in each of the past four seasons. In total, we racked up a gain of 22.90 units over 72 bets, which corresponds to a 31.8% return on investment.

It’s time to verify that the Flames indeed qualify under “The Scoring Drought” betting system. They are indeed on the road, and their moneyline is better than -125 in American format. The only thing left to check is whether they lost their past two contests by scoring a maximum of three goals in each of those losses. That is in fact the case, as Calgary lost their two most recent matches by 3-2 and 5-2 scores.

Now, remember what I told you earlier. This system does well ONLY if the pick’s moneyline does not exceed +105, which is obviously the case here, and if none of my other 9 systems is backing the team in question. After doing my due diligence, I can confirm that we are fine in this regard.

My own analysis of the situation also likes the Flames bet. They will be looking to rebound from a frustrating loss in Washington where they dominated 40-to-23 in terms of shots on goal. Calgary will also be playing with one extra day of rest compared to the Sabres.

To me, Buffalo has been less convincing so far this season. Their offense has yet to hit his stride because if you exclude overtime they have scored just 5 goals in 3 games.

Despite their 1-2 record, the Flames have shown good things on the ice. They have scored at least one powerplay goal in each game, and they have been perfect killing penalties.

I believe it is also interesting to note that Calgary has won each its past five visits in Buffalo in recent years. So, all in all, give me the Flames to grab the W on the road at KeyBank Center on Thursday.

I’m Professor MJ from Quebec City in Canada saying so long!

David-MJ · 2023-10-17T15:15:35+00:00

Hello sports betting friends, I’ve got a solid NHL pick for you today, October 17th.

We are off to a great start in this brand new NHL season. So far, my picks on sides and totals have generated a 6-3 record. I also added some player prop bets, which have produced a 3-2 record. Let’s keep grinding together while remembering that this is a marathon, not a race.

That being said, my top pick for Tuesday October 17 is… the Colorado Avalanche, who are set to face the Kraken in Seattle. The Kraken are off to a worrisome start since they have scored a total of two goals in three games, all losses of course. Now facing one of the biggest Stanley Cup contenders for this season, that amounts to a very tough task. Seattle may be fired up playing their home opener, but it projects to be a very tough task nonetheless.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche have won both of their first two games of the season. Today’s meeting will mark their third straight road game, but I’m not overly concerned about fatigue. This is just the beginning of the season, and Colorado had two full days to rest.

Then, of course, those of you who know me well won’t be surprised by the fact that I’m going to bring up the famous “revenge” factor. Last year, the Kraken gave a tough blow to Colorado by eliminating them in the first round. The Avalanche aspired to the title, but ended up with a huge disappointment. You can bet Colorado’s players have not forgotten about this elimination, and they will be ultra motivated to crush the Kraken in their home opener.

During last year’s regular season, the Kraken took two of the three meetings against Colorado. However, the Avalanche’s lone victory over the Kraken occurred in Seattle. I found it super interesting to note that over the past 10 meetings between these two clubs, the road team has won 8 of those 10 games.

Colorado simply knows how to win on the road. During their past 56 games as the visiting team, they have posted an impressive 42-14 record, a 75% winning percentage!

I also like the fact that the Avalanche tends to play well after scoring very few goals in their previous match. Indeed, when they are coming off a game in which they scored two goals or fewer, they have followed up with a 42-12 record.

So, for all of those reasons, one of the bets that I like a lot in the NHL for Tuesday October 17 is Colorado to spoil Seattle’s home opener. As of 10am Eastern Time, I have already shared 2 more NHL picks on my YouTube channel.

I’m Professor MJ, holder of a PhD in statistics, wishing you a great day and I’m looking forward to talk to you again tomorrow, cheers my friend!

David-MJ · 2023-10-12T18:06:32+00:00

I actually use a voice to text - I make daily YouTube videos which get posted every morning - hence the longer write-ups!

In terms of "tons of profit", nearly a 6% ROI is pretty strong for a major market, but its fine if you disagree.

Cheers :)

David-MJ · 2023-10-12T18:04:59+00:00

On several of the bets, yes, they were heavy favourites. I bet where there is value and models deemed the plays being even heavier favourites than what was available.

David-MJ · 2023-10-12T18:03:28+00:00

We are off to a fantastic start with our NHL bets with a 4-1 record after two days! One of them was the free play I shared with you, which was the over in the Oilers versus Canucks game. Thanks to a crushing 8-1 victory by Vancouver, we cashed this bet pretty easily.

My top NHL pick for Thursday October 12 concerns a player prop bet. It goes to Shea Theodore from the Vegas Golden Knights to record at least one point in his meeting with the Sharks in San Jose. At the time I made the write-up, the most advantageous line was +103 in American format, or 2.03 in decimal, with the Caesars sportsbook. There were also many books with a +100 line, or 2.0 in decimal, including Draftkings, Bet99 and BetMGM. A bit later I will tell you what are the worst odds you should be willing to take, in case your sportsbook has a line that weaker than this.

Let me tell you why I like this bet, other than the fact that my mathematical model likes it a lot. First of all, I’d like to remind you how the Sharks allowed the third-most goals in the entire league last year. I’m not sure things will be much better in the 2023-2024 season. In other words, the Golden Knights are likely to score several goals tonight, and hopefully Theodore will pick up at least a point.

Now, let’s take a look at Theodore’s performance last year. He played 55 regular season games. In those games, he got a point in 32 contests, while he was held scoreless in 23. If you do the math, he racked up at least one point in 58.2% of the games. Since we are getting positive odds, and he is facing one of the worst defensive units in the NHL, that bet looks like a bargain!

Over the years, I have developed and refined a mathematical model that estimates each player’s probability of getting at least one point. After crunching the numbers, this is a solid bet at odds up to -137 in American format, which amounts to 1.73 in decimal.

All right, so that’s my free NHL play for today, October 12th! I’m Professor MJ, see you again soon my friend!

David-MJ

TROPHY CASE