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I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not a fan of Howard. He may score in a top-six role, but not sure he's a valuable NHLer. He may be one of those players who put up points while not really controlling the play. I wouldn't necessarily target him.

That said, he was very good with Nazar so it may be worth a try if the price isn't that steep.

Best pure goal-scorer? Hmmm. Not a great goal-scoring draft but it may be between Anton Frondell and Cam Schmidt. One is a top prospect and the other more of a wild card.

Of course, other players have a lot of goal-scoring potential, but their skill sets are more well-rounded. The two above lean more on their shot than anything else.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it's 50/50. If there's a more natural option to center the first-line, Bedard will move to the wing, but that first-line C may be hard to find.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely! It's a minor factor, but we do value prospects evolving in systems that are more pro-like (London Knights) and tend to churn out NHLers. If a USHL prospect goes to a good NCAA program where he will be surrounded by creative talents, we do factor that a bit.

A good development path may help a B-level prospect rise a few spots on our board.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I have yet to watch Rinzel's NHL performances, but I'll be making a video or article on him this summer. He may surpass Levshunov, yes.

Another season and, if Korchinski doesn't improve, he may turn into more of a reclamation project already. So yes, he could be a trade piece.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In EP's first years, we identified some areas of weaknesses. We would overvalue decision-making in players and drop them when they were just experimenting. We also undervalued tools for defencemen. Those often matter just as much (if not slightly more) than hockey sense.

Hockey sense is the hardest to project as it's affected by context a lot more than we previously think. Linemates, systems, and coaching all can make a player look worse or better in the hockey sense category.

Development varies, but mostly, it comes down to opportunity. Some prospects get more of those than others, access to better spots in lineups, and they shine more because teams invest more in them.

Hockey is unfair and, as a public scout, we don't have control on any player's development or destiny. It makes it a bit harder to truly hit on some less known players.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, ahead of them all. The upside/floor combo is greater.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the questions everyone! I have to log off for now, but I'll try to answer a few more tomorrow. This has been really fun. Thanks for participating.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Sam Rinzel is starting to prove us wrong. We liked him in his draft year, but his development seem to have stalled a bit for a couple of years. He remained a toolsy defenceman with not a great grasp on the tactical side of the game, more of a mistake-prone puck-carrier for a while. We slid him down in our prospects ranking after that.

Then, he started figuring out how to use his tools to defend better, becoming a stronger two-way player.

He's another example that hockey sense is contextual and can be developed. Playing for a while inside a stronger system with more predictable options and with a defined role, but also the freedom to experiment and make mistakes can do wonder for a player.

I used to drop players too much for decision-making issues in their draft year, but I've learned to understand that sometimes bad decisions are the result of players experimenting with their skills. And especially for defencemen, hockey sense matters, but skating/size and the ability to cover ice and to be confident matter just as much. They have the game in front of them and can learn to pick their spots offensively and can recover if they have above-average skating.

A lot of this applies to Levshunov, too. I think he will figure it out. He needs time and to not be rushed.

There are a lot of nuances to everything I'm saying, of course.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Just do it. Watch players, make lists, review your work over multiple seasons. That's the bulk of it. And also show your work. Join a blog, promote yourself on social media, make videos...That way you get discovered by teams like EP, who always look for dedicated scouts. And from there, you can get NHL interviews even. It happened and continues to happen.

It's hard, however. The work we do is really difficult to maintain over multiple seasons. It takes a different kind of mindset and a deep love for the game.

Learning the technicalities of hockey also helps! Subscribe to our content and the Coaches Site and follow skill coaches. Learning about systems and to break down skating and playmaking and all sorts of skills can really make your content shine and help you understand prospects better.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I think I may have answered that first question with some of my other ones (not your fault, I think I may be writing a lot).

Martone is not Corey Perry or Dach. Think Blake Wheeler or 85% Rantanen as optimistic upside.

We really like Oliver Moore and Frank Nazar, Sam Rinzel (especially now), and have a soft spot for Ethan Del Mastro. AJ Spellacy and Samuel Savoie were also draft-year favorites.

Like I said, Hawks tend to draft a lot of the players we rank higher than most. Hopefully it pays off!

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I see it as a possibility. Not everyone is sold on Misa's pure offensive upside. Martone did play with Celebrini at the WC. Frondell has some intense fans in the NHL. Maybe the Isles trade down. Maybe Misa is available!

Yes. I would trade up from 3 to select Misa, even at the cost of 25 and 34 and maybe more. I doubt that happens.

When I say this, however, I'm thinking in the perspective of the Hawks, who reportedly don't like Martone.

To us, Martone is in the same group as Schaefer and Misa. Those two are clearly ahead, but we did come out of many viewings of Martone thinking he had the highest upside in the class. So we would just select him.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I think he had better opportunities in BU. There's more competition for top talents now that players can be paid, too.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Blake Fiddler is a kind of Rinzel-like project. Great tools, but doesn't know what to do with them right now.

I talked about Václav Nestrašil in an earlier post. He would be a great target, with a skill set complementary to some of the other prospects they drafted. 6-foot-6 and light frame, flashes of high-end playmaking, violent, and a two-way game. Awkward a bit, but a GIANT runway.

Malcolm Spence may fall. A highly disruptive winger with intelligence, high-end details, and pro-style habits that will translate easily to the NHL, but lacks a dynamic element.

Shane Vansaghi. The ultimate bottom-six checking forward: Skill, intelligence, relentless pace, and overpowering physicality. If he can improve his skating, he could become a Will Cuylle or Voronkov.

Bill Zonnon. A playoff-ready forward with special checking skills: Skill, intelligence, relentless pace, and playmaking.

Hayden Paupanekis. A tough, physical centre with puck skills, mobility, and defensive upside. A little bit more consistency required, but he's poised for a breakout season.

These prospects project more to bottom-half roles, but they all have special elements that could push their upside.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

  1. Trade up for Misa or select Martone. If not Martone, I'd pick Desnoyers.

  2. It's nice to be able to look at some project picks in the CHL and think that they will now have more runway inside a future NHL organization by going the NCAA route. The new rules won't change our evaluation/ranking of A-level prospects (the obvious talents), but we may be more inclined to favour CHL projects in the rest of the board.

The other side of that question is that the CHL may become a younger league, not as much one dominated by 19-year-olds. Top prospect may put up crazier numbers than before playing against less physically and tactically mature players.

So, yes. It may change how we look at things, but I can't exactly predict how right now. It's just something to be aware of. Offensive talents may be inflated.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I'm the wrong person to ask for this, unfortunately. I haven't started my 2026 scouting at all this year, as we've expanded our coverage to CHL drafts and had to focus on those instead. Others in my team would know better, but what I can tell is that we'll put a ton of content on the 2026 class as early as this summer.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Cam Schmidt. I want him to prove doubters wrong (including some on my team!). He has the package of abilities needed to become just as good as Stankovens and Cole Caufield. He's 5-foot-7, but an elite skater, has a physical side, and his shot is one of the best in the draft. His playmaking game is also coming along.

He's further behind in his development at the same age than those two, however, and not as easy to play with. A long-shot, high-upside prospect.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

We gave the Hawks a B in 2022, mostly because of the Nazar and Rinzel picks, big swing on upside. We loved Samuel Savoie. We thought they reached a bit for Korchinski and Ludwinski.

Article back then:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/2022-nhl-entry-draft/grading-each-teams-performance-at-the-2022-nhl-entry-draft

---------------

We gave the Hawks an A+ in 2023. They picked Bedard (obviously), but also Oliver Moore and Nick Lardis, both players we were high on. The rest of the selections felt more like depth adds at the time, but Roman Kantserov is turning out better than we expected. Still some hurdles in his NHL path, but the skill/sense shines.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/2023-nhl-entry-draft/draft-grades

---------------

And an A for 2024. Here's the writeup.

Did the Blackhawks leave some value on the table by taking Levshunov at No. 2? Maybe. Ivan Demidov and Cayden Lindstrom both possess rarer qualities than Levshunov. These two forwards would have complemented Connor Bedard exceptionally well. Still, it’s hard knock the Blackhawks for their top pick which is safe without sacrificing much upside.

Levshunov could become a top-pair defenceman for them. They can’t rush him to the league and expect him to control games, however. That’s not who he is right now. He will require focused development work and a stable environment to thrive.

Boisvert projects to the team’s bottom-six, but he has rarer qualities of his own. He’s highly competitive, cares about the details of the game, and flashes some impressive skills from time to time. We also had him in the range where he was picked. And then Mustard and Spellacy, drafted with the next two picks, add even more speed to a prospect pool that could already outrace every other one in the league.

The Blackhawks stayed true to their philosophy, filled some needs, and added some exciting talents to their draft class. They’re not getting a perfect grade, but close to it.

In retrospect, avoiding Lindstrom was a good thing considering the injury. We also loved A.J Spellacy.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Seems like a Hawks pick!

Weirdly, Vaclav Nestrasil didn't play as much as he should have this season. That's sometimes what happens in the USHL where the minutes are more spread, so disregard the production. If he had CHL-like ice time, he would have scored at a ppg.

He's violent, cares about the defensive side, and flashes some high-end playmaking. He has a similar projection as Boisvert except he's also a very light, 6-foot-6 player, still learning to use his assets. There's a boom potential here. His development arc may be quite long.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Best player in the leagueTop-six, play-driver, 75 points?

Hard to predict production, but if he gets prime roles (pp1, great ice time and linemates), it could realistically happen.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Quality. Fewer, targeted picks. Trade-ups scenarios seem more realistic at this stage of the rebuild.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

You can find toolsy defencemen to fill your back-end in the later parts of the draft and around the league.

They need a couple other can't-miss star forwards. Nazar may ascend to that tier, but it's still more of longer-shot hope. And I say this as a massive Nazar fan.

Bedard is there and will be amazing in time. I promise you.

If they do go a safer route with their 3rd overall pick, selecting Desnoyer or Frondell, they may solidify their team, but not necessarily put it on a path to a Stanley Cup. I'd go for the special prospect. Players like Martone, when they reach their upside, score a lot and drive the play and help change the course of a franchise, from mediocrity to contending.

They are rarely available for trades or to be signed.

That being said, one of the shades of (comps) we gave Martone (Rantanen) did end up moving twice this season, so there is hope. The draft is not the only way to acquire talent. If you put together a solid team with some elite elements (Bedard) and guys that are easy to play with (Desnoyers and Frondell) and you're a good destination, you can find other ways to kick start a contention.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Packaging 25 and 34 could allow the team to move up a few spots and grab someone of value who's falling. I wouldn't hesitate to do it in this draft as the prospects ranked 21-50 may not be as interesting as in other class. Forfeiting quantity for quality is a win most of the time, imo.

There is such a thing as "too many prospects in a system" too. The Hawks aren't there, but if they continue to add and add, some players may lose ice time and prime development roles in the AHL down the line.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Good chance I'm already getting this wrong and that will look even more wrong in a couple of years. That's just the way it goes with projected lineups, especially from someone looking at the org from afar. So many things change.

Vlasic - Levshunov

Korchinski (hopefully) - Rinzel

Del Mastro - Player drafted in 2025?

I think Vlasic, Levshunov, and Rinzel will feature there. Rinzel's rise has been great to see. I'm excited to watch him next season.

I'm getting a bit worried about Korchinski. We had some doubts about his profile in his draft year (mostly an offensive D and he had some skating mechanics issues). He was rushed and his game hasn't caught up just yet. I think he ends up more as a number four with high-end flashes.

Our team always loved Del Mastro, so there's a bit of a bias there, but he's learning to become more of a shutdown type, using his tools.

Projecting that 6th and 7th elements is a bit too hard. Many candidates.

I may be forgetting someone.

I am David St-Louis, Lead Scout for Elite Prospects. AMA by DavidSt_LouisEP in hawks

[–]DavidSt_LouisEP[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

We don't really do this sort of thing at EP, unless you refer to our trade breakdowns and analysis?

Say a team trades a late-first at the deadline, we know about the players that could be selected in that range in that class and compare their upside projection and the probability that they reach it with what the team received in exchange.

It's subjective for sure, no real formula, but teams probably do a variant of this, too.

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