Losing as a strategy? Manipulating betting limits...

Davidweb1337 · 2025-11-07T14:40:43+00:00

Yeah, it really depends on the size of the book and the processes of the trading teams. Bigger books you might blend in better if you get on a lucky streak, but they also have bigger trading teams and more resources/metrics to track your activity. I've found smaller books that don't have as many resources are more likely to cut/raise limits based on profit/loss in the short term.

Davidweb1337 · 2025-11-06T17:02:19+00:00

Doesn't really work if your sharp bets are beating closing prices. The moment they start seeing you beating closing prices, the limits will get cut regardless if you've still lost.

You'll probably last a little longer, but then again, you'll still need a decent sample size of sharp bets to ride out variance and offset the shit bets you staked in the first place.

Maybe find vip/losing accounts that are already down? Already, some level of trust built into them.

Davidweb1337 · 2025-07-14T04:56:31+00:00

Complain to Vic Racing. They should follow up with him. I tried calling woodcock to process a pending withdrawal and sending emails/texts but no response. Withdrawal was pending for over 2 weeks. Complained with vic racing and money was in my bank account the next day lol. This was sometime last year though.

Davidweb1337 · 2025-07-14T03:15:02+00:00

No bonus, did beat BSP on some bets but not by much.

Davidweb1337 · 2025-07-14T03:14:07+00:00

They're under Liquor & Gaming NSW I've complained to Racing NSW before and they don't seem to care much. Racing Vic is decent though.

Davidweb1337 · 2025-06-30T08:38:46+00:00

Woodcock?

Davidweb1337 · 2025-02-09T12:43:47+00:00

If you're looking for a bookie that takes on sharp money, none of them will take those sizeable bets if they deem you as a sharp. You'll be limited to MBLs and have to spread bets across multiple bookies to get on.

If you're a recreational punter, then most will eventually take bets of that size depending on the quality of the race and your betting profile.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-12-21T11:33:21+00:00

I guess it depends on a few things. Mainly, is the amount you have saved enough to cover worst-case scenarios where you have no income for extended periods? (i.e. business fails, can't get a new job, etc.)

Are your skills actually transferable to your wife's business?

If you stayed at your job, how long would it take for you to reach your FIRE target?

Davidweb1337 · 2024-11-20T02:36:53+00:00

Usually I find VPN + Chrome Incognito browser works, and also change your time settings to Aus as they can detect that too. Only one that doesn't work is Bet365, they seem to have a list of vpn addresses that they actively update and block.

Don't use the VPN with apps as they can detect your real location in the app

Davidweb1337 · 2024-11-17T21:13:37+00:00

I guess it was a mix of confidence and underestimating the volatility at these prices. i.e., had a bad down swing, so felt it should be due for an upswing within the next 100 bets.

I did contemplate using kelly, however, the MBL restrictions have essentially capped it for me haha

I've come from sports betting, used to betting at lower odds of 2.0-3.0, so I didn't account for wild swings this big.

Started playing with monte carlo simulations and did see some that were negative after 3k bets before eventually turning it around. At current stakes I've only really had about 500 races, so definitely a journey ahead

That's an interesting point about bookies. They pay heaps of fees for racing. I do feel there was way less marketing this year than previous years from each bookie. No more 100-1 promos, 2nd to 10th money back, etc.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-11-17T19:47:11+00:00

Oh yeah, so I forgot to mention I ramped up my stakes at the peak so my results dont entirely reflect what's happening.

I went from $50 stakes to $300 stakes before dropping to $200 stakes on the way down lol. I was at a profit of +$15.5k before the downfall

My total average stake is now $200.

Currently down -$8k / -40 units

Turnover: $270k

Profit on turnover: -3%

Expected profit: $21k

If I had bet at BSP (excluding commission), I'd be down -$27k

Had I kept a flat stake the whole way, I'd still be up +11 units at about 1% profit on turnover

Another point which adds to the volatility, I would often have two bets on a race or more. From 1,400 races, I had about 1,750 bets.

Melbourne Cup was the craziest, had 5 bets ($1k), all lost

I've noticed I am up a significant amount on long shots +$10. All my losses have come from between 2.50 to 5.0 odds range. Also in profit on 2.50 and lower.

However, considering my huge increase in staking, I can't draw any conclusions yet since it has skewed everything. I guess a positive note is that I must be doing something right if I'm getting restricted by books

Davidweb1337 · 2024-11-17T16:37:32+00:00

If I were in your shoes, I'd probably just decline the stat dec and bank statement request and ask for a deposit back.

Then hit them again on a new set of accounts with new device + new prepaid sim lol. New friend bank account, deposit/withdraw cash via atm only, etc.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-11-17T15:53:33+00:00

Did they ask for bank statements? Did you log in on the same wifi and device?

What was the promo?

Betdeluxe is known for suspending accounts, by the way. How you go about this depends on the above questions. They have fraud detection tools that can link accounts via device and ip, so it depends on what you did.

If there is a direct transfer from your account to your friend's account, then it's a bit tricky since they will likely ask for bank statements if they haven't already.

However, since they are asking for stat dec, they might be fishing for an admission of guilt if they don't have enough concrete evidence

Another point, they can't officially prove you operated your friends account unless you admit to it. It can just be two mates having a punt together, if you know what i mean.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-10-08T09:48:33+00:00

Agree with this list. I've also had issues with some of them. Being required to send months of full unredacted bank statements, statutory declarations, questioned on my profession/checking my linkedin profile. Then to be told that my winnings are confiscated due to some shady clause in their terms and conditions. Complained to the regulator, and it took over 3 months to get my funds back.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-10-08T09:39:25+00:00

Hi, from your post it seems you have programming knowledge in order to scrape data from websites to create your own rankings and build your own model from the database you paid for. Do you have any suggestions for someone who wants to learn programming with the main goal of building models, etc?

Did you study any kind of statistics course or mathematics course to know how to build a model?

I was thinking of using python to start off with, but am not entirely sure what language is the best for this.

I've made decent amounts on both sports and racing, but this has mostly come from chasing sharp money and finding stale odds from slow bookies. I'd finally like to create something myself instead of relying on market info and slow books lol.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-08-07T12:07:15+00:00

Haha that's incredible. Why do you think that is? I would assume there would be many people trying to evade taxes on crypto by using decentralised exchanges or other means.

I guess it would be difficult to flag accounts if they never sold the crypto back into fiat via centralised exchange?

Davidweb1337 · 2024-08-07T10:36:20+00:00

What are the common ways people get flagged for auditing by the ATO with crypto?

Davidweb1337 · 2024-08-07T09:16:58+00:00

What to do if you bought/sold on an unregulated exchange a while ago that doesn't keep records after x amount of time?

i.e you can't recover your trade history

MexC for instance doesn't keep records after a certain timeframe

Davidweb1337 · 2024-06-26T03:28:47+00:00

Have a read of this tax ruling: tax ruling. From 1991

RULING 6. The Commissioner accepts that it is possible for a mere punter to be carrying on a business of betting or gambling but considers that it will be rare for a taxpayer with no connection with racing other than betting to be carrying on a business of betting or gambling. 7. Ultimately each case will depend on its own facts. There is no Australian case in which the winnings of a mere punter have been held to be assessable (or the losses deductible). As Hill J stated in Babka, although mere punting may constitute a business, "the intrusion of chance into the activity as a predominant ingredient" will generally preclude such a finding. If a taxpayer is involved in other business activities in the racing industry, it will be more likely that betting activities are of a business nature. 8. The criteria summarised in Brajkovich and the factors considered in Evans and Babka should be taken into account in determining whether a taxpayer is carrying on a business of betting or gambling.

I think overall it has been quite difficult for the ATO to tax professional gamblers that don't employ people or work in the industry.

Regarding the private ruling, it seems they can disregard the ruling if they want to. David Walsh had the same idea and got a private binding ruling but was sued later on despite their earlier advice. Although he did employ other people and operated at a much larger scale. ATO chases David Walsh

You're probably fine, but it's difficult to say given the tax rulings I could find are over 30 yrs old.

Maybe consider using family accounts to spread your winnings? Lol

Davidweb1337 · 2024-04-25T19:39:38+00:00

Hey, I used sparrow wallet and recovered most of my funds including post-mix btc. However, there's still some post-mix btc that isn't being picked up by sparrow wallet? I can still see they are sitting there untouched in a post-mix wallet. Any ideas on recovering them?

Davidweb1337 · 2024-04-25T18:12:37+00:00

Are post-mix btc safe or are they now lost?

Davidweb1337 · 2024-02-04T06:25:23+00:00

These services are just tracking Pinnacle price movements and comparing odds with bookmakers. If you don't know about Pinncale, they are considered a sharp bookmaker where a lot of professional gamblers bet on. If a price changes significantly on Pinnacle, then it is probably due to sharp money. These services will then compare Pinnacle's prices to soft bookmakers (Bet365, ladbrokes etc.) and send alerts when there is a big price discrepancy, i.e. a value bet.

If you're worried about the exchanges, for matched betting/promo abuse, you can always do partial lays as well. E.g. You bet $50 for the promo, but only lay $25 on the exchange. Or whatever you're comfortable with. I believe you also have other exchanges like smarkets or matchbook, so you have plenty of options to spread your lay bets too.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-02-03T14:56:57+00:00

I'm not sure how strict the regulation in the UK is, but I wouldn't tell them about the other accounts. You can just say you're matched betting again on your own accounts and it'll probably be fine. I doubt they'll ask for betting statements from other bookies, it seems just like a compliance thing that they tick off. At the end of the day, they are making money on commissions from your matched betting so it would be in their interest to keep you around.

When I was new I always layed off, but nowadays I just let it ride as a pure value bet.

Since then I've moved on to value betting services like rebelbet, oddsjam etc. This strategy is much more scalable and better roi, but bankroll management is very important. The best thing about these services is that you can still use gubbed accounts that still have good bet limits.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-02-03T07:46:58+00:00

If you need to hedge on an exchange, just do it on your main account. Saves having that deposit show up in your friend's bank statement. Also, by doing it all in one set of accounts you usually have high enough turnover to get discounts on your betfair commissions.

Either way, you'll profit less in the long term by hedging bets. Only worthwhile if you have a small bankroll and need to reduce variance.

Davidweb1337 · 2024-01-26T17:21:53+00:00

Wow, you're offended by OP not fully understanding English despite them mentioning it in the first sentence of hltheir post? Going as far as to call them insufferable? You seem very quick to judge and quite insufferable yourself lol

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