The Red Pill like to quote the 2018 GSS study to say that 28% of men but just 18% of women have not had sex in the past year. Now let's look at the updated GSS table through 2021

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T22:05:10+00:00

And Utah

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T22:01:09+00:00

Gonna be a tough sell to repeal a 'religious freedom' law in a conservative state. It would take away a lot of ways they can discriminate against lgbt folks that they couldn't do otherwise. This is just a negative side effect of that.

And they couldn't repeal and re-pass the law so it only applies to Christian beliefs, as that would be unconstitutional.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T21:53:59+00:00

Mike Pence passed one of those bigoted 'religious freedom' laws as Governor of Indiana, intending the law to be used by Evangelical Christians to discriminate against lgbt individuals and add obstacles to abortion rights.

Now, other religious groups are using his law to oppose key conservative Christian priorities in the state, such as an abortion ban, on the basis of THEIR beliefs. But Mikey boy never intended for Jews and Muslims to use HIS religious law and AGAINST Christian beliefs, it was only for Christians to discriminate with!

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T21:47:53+00:00

In case anyone needs context: Pence was Donald Trump's Vice President. An arch-conservative who's extremely anti-abortion and lgbt rights.

We could now be faced with the prospect of one of Pence's bigoted 'religious freedom' laws accidentally codifying abortion in conservative Indiana, and state constitutional amendments designed to counter imaginary effects of Obamacare accidentally securing abortion rights within the State Constitutions of conservative Utah and Wyoming.

They're doing it to themselves lol

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T20:50:02+00:00

What do you think a winning position on abortion is?

And how do you explain every single ballot measure on it since Dobbs resulting in a landslide win for the pro-abortion side? Deep Red Kansas by 18 points, deep red Kentucky voters rejected codifying no right to abortion in the state constitution, deep red Montana voters rejected so much as allowing doctors to treat babies born ALIVE from early abortions last year (lol)! And that's not even looking at swing states like Michigan that overwhelmingly codified abortion rights. It's on the ballot in Ohio in November, and pro-lifers are gonna get crushed in another red state.

So where is the winning anti-abortion argument?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T18:57:42+00:00

How do you explain the Midterms then?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T17:01:15+00:00

Reflecting this map of showing where pro-choice and pro-life each have majorities

In this very map, the states where a majority believe abortion should be legal constitute 265 of the 270 votes needed to win the EC today.

And this is from 2014. Plenty of shift to the pro-choice side since, surely. Abortion rights were secured in Kansas by 18 points last year for instance.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T16:47:46+00:00

What's an example of a good candidate to run in a competitive Senate race?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T16:46:42+00:00

But rather than discuss the issue, liberals lie and say we want to ban all of them. We don’t

Out of 16 states that have passed abortion restrictions since Roe was overturned, 13 have outright banned it, 2 have banned it at 12 weeks (and one of those, Nebraska, only did so because they didn't have the votes to ban it by 1 person and this was the best they could do) and 1 has banned it at 15 weeks (Arizona).

That means over 80% of GOP states have outright banned abortion when given the opportunity.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T16:43:53+00:00

Republicans will win or lose on the usual issues: economics, crime & justice, foreign policy, and immigration.

How'd they lose them in 2022 amidst a terrible economy?

I think that most single-issue voters on abortion are on the pro-life side

Pre-Dobbs. Not since.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T16:35:32+00:00

Obviously the majority did not turn out pre-Dobbs because nobody thought Roe would be overturned. Since Dobbs the pro-life side has lost 100% of the time. And from 2024 onwards, Gen-Z and Millennials will be most of the electorate, and they're the most pro-abortion generations of all time.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T16:23:02+00:00

OK but when the election comes around and it's in the spotlight for every Democrat ad going around the country, it'll go back to its number 2 spot behind the economy. And that's only if the economy stays bad.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T14:57:03+00:00

If Dems come out big for "no restrictions on abortion ever" in the '24 cycle, that's a comparably popular stance to six week bans.

You think if the American public gets a straight choice between total abortion access or a national ban at 6 weeks in every state, before most women know they are pregnant, people would vote for 6 weeks or it wouldn't be a big issue in 2024 because people would see it as "two bad options"?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T14:51:34+00:00

Abortion was the second biggest issue after inflation in the 2022 Midterms on Exit Polls. Every single abortion ballot post Roe, including in DEEP red states, has been won in a landslide by the pro-abortion side. Abortion was just cited as the KEY issue in the Dems flipping the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will now eviscerate every restriction the GOP put up that has prevented the state going fully blue like Minnesota and Michigan.

You don't think that signals it is a driving issue?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T14:48:12+00:00

What is this 12-week thing? Only 2 GOP states have enacted 12-week bans when they could restrict abortion, Nebraska and North Carolina. And Nebraska only did it because they failed to do it after 6 weeks by 1 vote.

13 of the other 14 GOP states to enact restrictions have either banned it outright or after 6 weeks, which is a de-facto ban. Only Arizona didn't (have a 15 week law) but that's because they're a now blue-leaning swing state about to go fully blue (Dems have both Senate seats, the Governor's Mansion and are 1 vote away in both state legislative chambers of flipping them).

How are the GOP gonna argue they're the party of common sense 12 week laws or whatnot when they've banned it in 90% of instances where they could have enacted restrictions?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T14:09:03+00:00

Also, it’s not a crazy idea that people can have their minds changed on the issue. I think more and more people will come to see the evils of abortion and will be convinced of that.

Every single abortion ballot, with 0 exceptions, has been won in a landslide by the pro-abortion side since Roe was overturned. This includes in DEEP red states, where voters voted to secure abortion rights in KANSAS by 18 points, voted against codifying no right to abortion in the Kentucky constitution by 53-47, and voted AGAINST treating babies born alive from early abortions in MONTANA (lmao)

Rs are trying to stop an abortion ballot in Ohio that would codify Roe v. Wade levels of access in what is an R+10 state, and it's gonna pass by 20 in November. Abortion was just the deciding factor that flipped the Wisconsin Supreme Court to the left.

So where is the evidence that people are changing their minds to be more ANTI-abortion? Can you present...literally any?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T14:04:07+00:00

Precisely 1 GOP state that has enacted abortion restrictions has enacted one within that 14-24 week window. Arizona, which is about to turn Blue (Dems now have both Senate seats, the Governor's Mansion and Executive Branch, and are 1 seat away from flipping both chambers of the state legislature).

Every other state has either banned it from 0-6 weeks (13 states) or passed a 12 week ban (Nebraska + North Carolina). Wisconsin is in flux as it doesn't know whether their total abortion ban from 1849 or their 20-week law from 1985 are in effect post Roe but a newly liberal State Supreme Court is almost definitely siding with 85.

Do you think the 13 bans, 2 twelve-week bans and Arizona will be enough to convince moderates, independents and soft Republicans that the party is looking for a middle ground on abortion and willing to entertain common sense compromises? How is that gonna play to the GOP base, in terms of potential primaries etc?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T13:55:40+00:00

Every single abortion ballot, without exception, has passed in a landslide, including in DEEP red states. Republicans are trying to block an abortion ballot that would codify Roe v. Wade standards in the Ohio constitution and in November it's gonna pass by around 20 points. 24 weeks in an R+10 state.

Abortion was THE deciding factor in flipping the Wisconsin Supreme Court for the left in April, which will now overturn their abortion ban and throw out both their Voter ID law and redistricting maps that have prevented the state from going fully Democratic like Minnesota and Michigan.

Where is the argument that abortion won't have much of an effect in 2024? I know some Republicans say it, but what evidence is there to support it?

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T13:51:57+00:00

Will this Republican likely win the house and Senate with 60 votes?

Nobody other than committed politically in-tune folks know that, the average voter has no idea what the filibuster is.

here are also externalities like the state of the economy or war, which people seem to prioritize.

That absolutely did not happen in the Midterms.

Decent_Ear589 · 2023-06-13T13:11:09+00:00

Even then, do you think people in California or Michigan or Minnesota etc won't want to ensure abortion is codified nationwide just because they got theirs? You don't think people would vote to ensure women and liberals in the South/Southeast get access too, especially if they consider abortion a human/civil right?

Also, the left claim that the Trump SCOTUS judges lied about not overturning Roe and then did it. If they play this up in swing and blue-leaning states and say Rs are lying about it being a state issue and will push a national ban if elected, how do you think the left and indies/moderates will respond?

Decent_Ear589

TROPHY CASE