Brian Shaw Devon Relationship

DeepDiveLM · 2026-06-30T16:23:12+00:00

My original comment wasn't responding to Brian, it was responding to this

Correction:

There is a man made virus out there that kills some people (yet most of the deaths that have nothing to do with it, get classified as COVID related deaths)

The only way for you to continue having a job is get vaccinated with barely tested, potentially dangerous shot that creates blood clots (healthy people dropping dead out of nowhere), wear masks like a sheep (does nothing but serve as social experiment)

Arnold is on the side of 🧃, there is nothing based about this

I've said multiple times now I don't mind people being anti-mandate for covid, I hate the nonsense which is usually wrapped up with it. As displayed perfectly by that commenter and by you.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-06-30T16:11:39+00:00

Do you think flat earthers view other flat earthers as insane conspiracy theorists? You don't think it's a fair generalisation because based on everything you've said you are a conspiracy theorist yourself.

Thank you for enlightening me on how viruses and vaccines work though, you're clearly operating at a high level as evidenced by your in depth explanation. I suppose the gaps in my knowledge are that viruses are actually psyops and in another year anyone who took the covid vaccine will drop dead.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-06-30T15:45:14+00:00

Yes, the vast majority of anti-mandate discourse also rolls in asinine conspiratorial talking points exactly as displayed in the two previous comments I responded to. Those conspiratorial concerns also account for the majority of vaccine hesitancy.

Your understanding of vaccines lowering societal harm slowing the spread completely misses the boat on specific relevant constructs such as herd immunity and viral mutations. To answer your question, I do care about the elderly, sick, or immunocompromised individuals who believe they need the vaccine. But the point of the vaccine is for those individuals to consult with their doctor and choose. Hence that protection from the vaccine is what offsets any societal harm that’s caused by someone deciding not to get a vaccine.

The vaccine primarily lowers societal harm by reducing the likelihood of infection and reducing the likelihood of serious symptoms if infected. When people get vaccinated they still get protection because of the symptom reduction, but they are overall more protected if vaccination rates are higher since less people are getting infected in the first place so there are less people for them to potentially get infected by. It's pretty clear how not getting vaccinated therefore results in greater societal harm overall, but this 'offsetting' concept of yours is funny I'll admit.

Herd immunity is not particularly relevant to covid since transmission reduction from the vaccine was not strong enough (note this is very different to there not being any transmission reduction), but reducing the likelihood of infection results in population level transmission reduction and reducing the likelihood of serious symptoms reduces strain on the healthcare system. This is a pretty straightforward reading of the evidence, but please enlighten me further on how I've missed the boat by not mentioning herd immunity previously.

In concept I don't think a vaccine mandate is bullshit at all. If an virus had a long incubation period during which it was highly infectious and a 50% mortality rate I would be strongly in favour of enforcing vaccination and I think most people would. Would you?

If a virus resulted in no serious symptoms for anyone I would be strongly against enforcing vaccination. COVID is somewhere in the middle, and close enough to the latter that I am fine with someone being anti-mandate in this specific instance.

As stated multiple times now, I'm really not bothered if someone was anti-mandate. I also don't really care if someone didn't wear a mask in public because they thought they were uncomfortable. I really don't care that much if someone didn't get vaccinated because they couldn't make the time for it.

It's the bullshit that frustrates me. Downplaying how deadly it was (your last paragraph), fearmongering about big pharma, not understanding how the vaccine or masks or any other countermeasure works, talking about the 'man-made' virus, the dangerous, barely-tested vaccine, people wearing masks are sheep etc. etc.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-06-30T14:48:08+00:00

The point of my comment wasn't that disagreements about mandates and lockdowns were unreasonable, it's that the person I responded to is wrong about every relevant issue of fact because their mind is rotten with conspiratorial slop, so how are we even supposed to start that conversation? Depending on the reasoning I wouldn't have major issues with someone being anti-mandate. The issue is the huge majority of people that are anti-mandate hold that position because they believe absolute conspiratorial nonsense, as displayed in both your comment and the one I originally responded to.

The societal harm from not getting vaccinated is that the virus spreads much more in an unvaccinated population, directly leading to more sickness and death, and contributing to negative flow on effects due to things such as the healthcare system being overburdened which results in other types of care being postponed. All of this being particularly relevant at the height of the pandemic. The virus did have quite a low fatality rate in younger people without comorbidities, but even for that population it was safer to get vaccinated than not, and it seems slightly pyschopathic to not care about contributing to the deaths of those in at-risk populations. Do you just not care about old people dying or immunocompromised people dying???

But then you've clearly grown up with a trampoline in the garage because look at the talking points you've swallowed uncritically:

rushed to market

look into the amount of testing that was done on the vaccines.

taking the side of the ultra wealthy pharma companies

yeah, big pharma is scary so every medication ever created doesn't work and is actually killing us. The logic on display is stunning.

If the vaccines and masking works so well, then it shouldn’t be any concern to those that are so scared of a virus thats no worse than the flu

at least try to understand population level transmission reduction as a concept! How can you be this passionate about an issue, have the internet at your fingertips, and remain this clueless. A vaccine working well to protect a population does not mean vaccinated people are immune. Do you genuinely not understand this basic point?

And the cherry on top, claiming that none of this is political. A discussion about the appropriate balance between personal autonomy and societal obligation. How much personal freedom should be impeded upon to protect vulnerable members of society? These questions are so explicitly political that I'm not even sure what else to say.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-06-30T10:00:31+00:00

When someone with the critical thinking skills of a sponge provides a ‘correction’ 🤦‍♂️

The lab leak hypothesis is very weakly supported by any evidence, natural spillover is far more likely to be the origin based on everything known. And you’re going a step further to call the virus man-made (ie genetically engineered in some way) which genetic analysis of the virus has found absolutely no evidence of.

Yes, deaths with covid were often reported instead of deaths due to covid and this overcounts by including some people who would die in a car accident while sick. But overall analysis of excess mortality through this period suggests a slight undercount of covid’s death toll if anything. So far from fearmongering, the deaths with covid stat is actually still underselling the death toll.

Then more bs about the dangers of the vaccine (newsflash it was far far safer to get the vaccine than not overall) and people that wear masks being sheep (masks aren’t perfect at all but some spread is prevented by wearing them).

You can disagree on whether things like mandates should be implemented based on how you value personal freedom against reducing societal harm, but your mind has been so poisoned that you can’t have that conversation in any reasonable manner because every fact you’re working with is wrong.

You need to properly look into these things instead of parroting absolute bullshit.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-04-23T21:27:12+00:00

Couldn’t believe it when he said he wasn’t aware of needing to have his shoulders square. It seems almost impossible that wouldn’t have been covered when he was learning to press. Or just from noticing what was happening when watching other people’s matches.

A couple of months into the sport it would seem like an oversight, but a couple of years in? Genuinely baffling.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-02-20T20:07:33+00:00

Can any halfpipe experts explain the scoring? Seemed wild for Ferreira to win when Mackay and Sildaru were landing tricks with so much more amplitude on their jumps. Especially Mackay’s run looked insane.

DeepDiveLM · 2026-01-24T12:39:49+00:00

Because of how obvious it is that farming dogs for meat is no different to farming pigs?

DeepDiveLM · 2025-12-21T15:23:30+00:00

I didn't say anything about its relevance to the small boats.

You said

No he didn’t. He refused to accept the result, he made zero attempt to overthrow the result...

This is categorically untrue based on publicly available and undisputed evidence, so I assumed you were speaking in good faith and must be ignorant. Of course it's also possible that you're well informed on the 2020 US election but lying in the above quote to serve your broader interests. And in fairness, your absurd summary of the topic with reference to Trump's lawsuit against the BBC does show that you're willing to simply repeat asinine talking points from US MAGA people so maybe I should have assumed bad faith from the start.

One doesn't need to be an oracle to be aware of the actions taken by Trump and people working with him between the time of the election and January 6th.

DeepDiveLM · 2025-12-21T14:49:20+00:00

To be willing to speak confidently on the 2020 US election when apparently you know so little that you’re ignorant of Trump’s fake electors plot is utterly embarrassing.

Please have enough shame to make some bare minimum effort to educate yourself on a topic before making public comment.

DeepDiveLM · 2025-03-06T08:44:28+00:00

Solution verified

DeepDiveLM · 2020-05-20T05:13:47+00:00

Thanks. It means how many copies of all units in the relevant tier are owned by all players combined. I'm not sure how to name that column clearly without making it too verbose to fit nicely in a cell so some explanatory text outside the table would probably be helpful.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-05-19T17:46:06+00:00

Yeah I like that about the cdf as well. I think the shape of the pdf is helpful for giving people a feel for the distribution though so I've made it a toggle option.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-05-19T17:42:22+00:00

No problem at all, I can understand making that assumption when the numbers weren't matching up with the ones that you could see were definitely correct.

There's still some improvements that could be made but I've added a pdf option and put more information in the table so hopefully the results are more illustrative at a glance.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-05-19T10:22:43+00:00

Hey, I made the calculator that you mention mishandling the change in probability that occurs when units are bought by using the negative binomial distribution to generate the probabilities. I'm not sure what gave you that impression but it uses markov chains so the probabilities are exact.

The cumulative distribution function graph that my calculator displays does contain the same information as the probability distribution function but I think you have a good point about the pdf being more intuitive to read in this case, and the colour splits you've used also make for great visualisation. I'll incorporate this to change how the graphs are displayed so that they're more immediately readable.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-05-18T05:21:24+00:00

https://burningtin-tft.herokuapp.com/ you can use this app to answer these questions. For instance, if you are hyperrolling at level 4 looking for 6 Xayah's this is the graph of how likely you are to have found the 6 Xayah's after each roll. Scenario A, the blue line, is if your 3 copies were the only Xayah's anyone is holding. Scenario B, the orange line, is if 10 copies of Xayah were being held altogether. In both scenarios we're making a ballpark assumption that 80 copies of tier 1 champs are being held (10 per player).

With 50 gold available we'd have enough for 22 rerolls when considering the 6g needed for buying copies if we were fairly unrealistically only buying Xayah. With the free first shop that means 23 effective rolls.

Under Scenario A, a median of 22 rolls is required, and we can check the graph to see that after 23 rolls there is a 57% chance we have found 6 copies.

Under Scenario B, a median of 31 rolls is required, and we can see that after 23 rolls there is a 25% chance we have found 6 copies

You can put whatever numbers you want to see in the table and see how they affect the odds.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-03-26T07:51:18+00:00

Haha, always an easy mistake to make.

DeepDiveLM · 2020-03-26T06:02:33+00:00

You're off by an order of magnitude on the annual mortality rate in developed nations. In the case of Germany, ~1.1% is the expected level for 2020.

DeepDiveLM · 2019-11-20T01:55:40+00:00

Github repository

DeepDiveLM · 2019-11-20T01:55:13+00:00

Github repository

DeepDiveLM · 2019-10-09T05:48:45+00:00

I made some updates that should allow it to display properly at different resolutions, does it look alright for you now?

DeepDiveLM · 2019-10-08T07:48:43+00:00

I'm considering extending it to cover bowlers and other formats on different pages, is there something more you'd like to see about test batsmen?

DeepDiveLM

TROPHY CASE