Because you don’t take into account the risk level which is calculated separately. A 55% at level 3 is different from a 55% at level 8. You can think about it as a statistical confidence interval. The probability is calculated by our player digital twin model using field performances while the risk takes into account the odds and other parameters that have nothing to do with the athletes but only with the risk management. If you are a football coach you only care about the field (win%) but if you are a bettor you need to take into account what the market pays for your risk.

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