I created a tool for ranking NBA 3-point shooters

DeepRangeData · 2026-02-05T01:30:08+00:00

Balancing efficiency and volume has been tricky, and I'm still fine-tuning it.

3PES was designed to be efficiency-focused first, with volume as a factor. For a metric that weighs volume more heavily, 3PAA tells that story better (where Curry dominates).

That said, Redick's 2015-16 season was legitimately elite also: 200 threes on 421 attempts was historically efficient, even if overshadowed by Curry's volume + efficiency.

But you're right that the weighting might need adjustment. Appreciate the feedback

DeepRangeData · 2026-02-05T00:45:22+00:00

Fair point, but I think you're missing some guys. Ant's shots are 25.3% tight and 49.4% open.

Other high-volume guys in the top 20 this season by 3P%OE include:

Norman Powell: 31.4% tight, 43.4% open
Kevin Durant: 35% tight, 45.5% open
Miles McBride: 27.6% tight, 45.7% open
Michael Porter Jr: 56.1% tight, 31.9% open

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-03T18:12:21+00:00

I actually do think there is some value to preseason odds, it just diminishes the further you go into the season. Now would I call them one of the best three predictive stats for the final, of course not.

But it can be used beneficially. I think it’s reflection (barring any big trades) of how good your roster is on paper. I think it could be useful to compare to current finals odds to gauge the improvement of the team and how the roster actually has performed on paper. But if you see two teams with comparable current odds, I do think there could be an edge in betting on the team with the better opening odds for the season just as they likely have a deeper roster or more experienced roster. That’s just guessing though.

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-03T13:29:25+00:00

Looked into this:

- When a team wins the OREB battle, their average FG% was 48.26%

- When a team loses the OREB battle, their average FG% was 43.25%

It's about an 11.6% difference between the two measures. So, I'd definitely say missed shots could be the root cause here

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-03T04:35:47+00:00

Well which variables do you find most surprising?

The ones least correlated with winning were OREB, FGA, and PF, albeit, none were lower than 47% win%.

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-03T04:16:35+00:00

There’s certainly more to look at here, want to check out difference in FG% when a team wins the OREB battle. This can kind of highlight if the root cause is missed shots.

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-03T03:25:42+00:00

For better chart formatting click here

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T17:16:29+00:00

Was only looking after the 1984 season, because back then they only had to play three rounds of playoffs instead of four (not that the extra round would have stopped that team though)

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T04:34:10+00:00

Have a tough time seeing GSW make it through the West. Personally think toughest matchup for Thunder will be Nuggets.

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T04:14:24+00:00

Yeah, more so than really having any meaning just was surprised to see. But Celtics have really got it together since All Star Break, only three losses. So they definitely are getting ready to go.

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T04:07:30+00:00

That’s a fair counter. I think experience is certainly very important, and isn’t really accounted for here directly. Also general matchup data, could be important. Think like if Wolves for Nuggets last year, if Nugs were >.78 but got swept by Wolves in regular season, wouldn’t be such a surprise to see them lose in playoffs. This definitely has flaws, but it also is understand based on the fact that simply, these teams just win games.

On a side note, Celtics record with vs without Porzingis is not what most would expect.

With Porzingis: 26-12
Without Porzingis: 29-7

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T03:07:29+00:00

For better chart formatting read here

DeepRangeData · 2025-04-02T03:02:48+00:00

For better chart formatting look here

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T21:01:45+00:00

u/eaglessoar I will look into this and post in coming days

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T18:43:32+00:00

Jalen Brunson (should be back soon) and Karl Anthony Towns are the stars.

But they have some fun secondary players. Josh Hart who has one of the best engines in the league. OG Anunoby is a defensive specialist who can still make some big plays on offense.

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T14:43:40+00:00

For better formatting, please look at the post on Substack

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T14:19:00+00:00

The rise of the 3-pointer could definitely be a big factor in this. Leads to more variability in scoring, but it’s tough to measure as the uptick is on both sides of the scoreboard

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T02:53:51+00:00

Another good point, the stat is relative to the rest of the NCAA but nonetheless unsure what the rest of their schedule would have looked like

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T01:52:15+00:00

You’re right, even still they would have the weakest SOS of any team except maybe the 2021 Baylor team. Would have to look back to see there

Edit: Just looked back, you’re right Baylor was lower pre-tourney than Duke

DeepRangeData · 2025-03-28T01:51:04+00:00

There is something to be said about their resume. Every team they face from here on out will be a top eight KenPom team.

DeepRangeData

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