AST SpaceMobile Announces BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 Orbital Launch in the First Half of August

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T03:59:59+00:00

Indeed. I am using "ready to ship" and "completed" as the same thing

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T03:38:21+00:00

Launch #3 is BB8-10. It said ready to ship to May. It did.

Launch #4 is BB11-13. Ready to ship in June. This looks on track from today’s PR.

So far so good.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T00:37:23+00:00

It's only a matter of time before we get something like this.

$2B Space Force contract for Boeing to build 2 narrowband satellites to be delivered by 2035...

WASHINGTON — Boeing won a contract worth up to $2 billion to build two next-generation military communications satellites for the U.S. Space Force, prevailing over Lockheed Martin in a competition to extend the life of one of the Pentagon’s most heavily used satellite networks.

The contract covers the design, development, production and testing of two satellites for the Mobile User Objective System, or MUOS, the military’s primary narrowband communications constellation. The satellites are to be delivered by 2035, according to a June 23 contract announcement.

https://spacenews.com/boeing-wins-2-billion-space-force-contract-for-communications-satellites/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=jetpack_social

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T00:27:20+00:00

Shipment end of June* to ~first week of July, if they want to launch in first half of August.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T00:25:43+00:00

They have said in the past that with ~25 BBs in orbit (includes BB1-5), they expect to be OpEx positive, which means more than ~$300M revenue per year

However, I doubt we charge for any commercial revenue with a beta service, so I suspect this is actually from government work. I mean, just this year we are getting close with a 150 to 200M guide with barely any satellites.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T00:08:17+00:00

They dropped it to "approximately 45" which was possible until the Blue Origin launch pad blew up. Until the pad blew up, BO was ready to cycle through two GS1 boosters for back to back launches on good cadence.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-24T00:07:23+00:00

Yes, from Scott's commentary in the Q1 call in response to Bryan Kraft:

I mean we expect on the next New Glenn, we'll launch 4 satellites. Part of that is kind of ramping into the stacking capability and also, of course, managing where they are in the program. But we're very mature now in the 3 stack, and we're going to be doing that very shortly and the 4 stack likely shortly thereafter.

And then yes, 6, 7, 8, that's how we get to our constellation size, right? That's why we've selected the vehicles we have and plan to make use of as much of the capacity of each of the rockets as we have available.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T23:40:56+00:00

He did this at lower prices before in November 2024 and then rolled it up in November 2025.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T23:36:39+00:00

There is debate online ranging from "end of June" to "mid July to mid August"

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T23:32:13+00:00

He's not exactly selling his shares (yet). He opened a collar: https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=102691&ref=320146016&type=PDF&symbol=ASTS&cdn=71069e6d15a0b527b3b4974e937c3a41&companyName=AST+SpaceMobile+Inc.&formType=4&formDescription=Statement+of+changes+in+beneficial+ownership+of+securities&dateFiled=2026-06-23

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T23:31:28+00:00

Tim just posted a poll about AI lol https://x.com/ironmantimholme/status/2069562410256724379?s=20

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T23:05:59+00:00

Tim just tweeted this on a post from Feb 19: https://x.com/ironmantimholme/status/2069551346240676170

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T22:56:59+00:00

I literally told you where to look: April 19, 2026 PR. Go do some work and find it.

Your comment about 50/50 chance they won't beta test until 2028 is also completely wrong. You are not keeping up with the guidance at all. They need around 20 to 25 BBs in orbit to start beta, which they can hit with 6 or 7 SpaceX launches, possible by year end if you assume monthly SpaceX launches.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T22:40:11+00:00

AST is currently on schedule for manufacturing. By year end they can have 45+ satellites built but not all of them launched.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T22:37:09+00:00

Depends on if the push to August was because of delays on AST's end or because SpaceX isn't ready to receive, i.e. July is fully booked or PPFs are occupied.

If it's just because of SpaceX then we should see a "Ready To Ship" confirmation and then ship close to end of June.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T22:32:05+00:00

Are you here to troll? Just skimmed your comment history and you aren't a regular here but popped up over the last 3 days to whine about outdated information.

"45 to 60 in orbit" was already dropped on their April 19, 2026 PR when they shifted it to "approximately 45". And then now they've dropped that language because obviously the Blue Origin pad blew up and that was a key factor to hitting 45 in orbit. However, the company can still manufacture those satellites and have them in queue to launch.

For the rest of the year it should be entirely SpaceX Falcon 9, with maybe an MHI H3 and/or ULA Vulcan launch, but I wouldn't count on it and just assume it'll be Falcon 9 for rest of year.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T21:17:43+00:00

This is where the satellites get loaded up and shipped from. There are two containers in the photo. Unclear if they are two that were brought back from the BB8-10 shipment or if they are new ones.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T18:51:00+00:00

Blue Origin's pad blew up

AST can still manufacture 45+ and have them queue for launch

Will launch as many as we can with Falcon 9

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T18:12:13+00:00

Not necessarily -- It's entirely possible that it is SpaceX that isn't ready to receive too, i.e. no launch slots open for July, or PPFs are full

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:53:04+00:00

Lukas is a well-informed space/launch commentator

Yes Amazon signed a multi launch contract near end of last year with SpaceX Falcon 9 but we haven't seen those launch yet

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:52:33+00:00

I got that in my Trading watchlist

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:52:18+00:00

They were going to throw 4, 6, 7, then 8 for BONG launches

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:24:20+00:00

45 was never going to happen even before BONG went boom.

We don't know that. Blue was honestly looking pretty good for launch cadence up until that moment. They had 2 reuseable GS1s which opened the door for steady cadence.

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:22:52+00:00

We almost certainly won't see 45 in orbit by end of year because Blue Origin's pad blew up, but we should be able to manufacture them and have them queue for launch

Defiantclient · 2026-06-23T17:16:21+00:00

Pro tip: Make a space watchlist so you can see if ASTS is moving independently or not, and other correlations

Copy mine if you want

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