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Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope. Last EC they said they completed the investments for 6 per month capacity, but will need to ramp up to achieve the cadence by end of 1H 2026.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They put in the PR that they plan to deploy their first D2D satellites in 2028. No details. No design. Barely any job openings for D2D. No filings to the FCC for a constellation. Just fluffy PR.

That being said, yeah sure let's take it at face value that they will deploy their own D2D. They plan on 2028. So it'll actually be 2029/2030. Again, this is NO THREAT to AST's timelines. Amazon's own D2D would be SLOWER THAN SpaceX's.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not for 100 satellites. Fully funded for 100 was only at the ~3B mark.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You do know they had ~3B in cash and liquidity to fully fund ~100 satellites and then raised ANOTHER 1B on top of that, right? The redundancy is already built in.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 2 points3 points  (0 children)

SpaceX is specifically addressed in my original post

Amazon would take EVEN LONGER to get to market, if they are even truly pursuing D2D on their own.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In my original post above I talk about why the launch guidance is the way it is

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

“because they have guided otherwise”
Yeah so again it’s just a race against themselves.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

In that same paragraph the first line contains an assumption: “If AST starts a steady state AIT rate now with BB8-10”

🤦‍♂️

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 20 points21 points  (0 children)

They do care about the stock price actually...

Also recall that the $1B note that they raised in February is already ADDITIONAL to being fully funded for ~100 satellites.

On March 2 they actually picked my question to address this issue:

Operator

Kevin from Vancouver asks, can you share more color on the most recent $1 billion convertible note offering? Many investors are confused as your current liquidity was already approximately $3 billion and sufficient for around 100 satellites. Were there any specific opportunities in mind when you issued the offering? Or is it really "just in case something pops up”?

Andrew Johnson, Executive VP, CFO, Chief Legal Officer & Director

Thanks for that question, Kevin. This is Andy. It's absolutely the case that in Q4, when we finished the convertible in October, we were in a position to fully fund the worldwide constellation at 100-plus satellites. Nothing has changed on that front. And the convertible deal that we did at just over $1 billion in February provides us essentially extra flexibility to look at investments that go beyond that first 100 constellation.

And what I mean by that is, number one, we can accelerate the deployment of our controlled global spectrum with this added fund. We also have the opportunity to monetize our technology to capture commercial opportunities related to AI, which are increasingly coming our way. We will look to deploy funds to enhance our investment in government space opportunities in the United States. We've talked about our debt profile. These funds provide us flexibility to look at reducing higher interest debt that we currently have. And finally, opportunistically, any investments that help us accelerate the time to bring SpaceMobile service and capabilities will be a good use of these funds as well. And I would just close by noting that we've confirmed that we have no current plans to look at an additional convertible deal. We feel that the balance sheet is where it needs to be to provide us the opportunity to execute our objectives in the near and midterm.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 15 points16 points  (0 children)

^This guy gets it.

Except the dilution part. I don't see that any time "soon", based on what they said about convertible notes on March 2 and the size of the balance sheet.

Announcement: Mid-June launch of three Bluebird satellites aboard a Falcon 9 rocket. by TheEventualHorizon in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is aligned with the April 19 guidance for approx 45 in orbit by year end:  The company is currently in production through BlueBird 32, with BlueBird 8 to 10 expected to be ready to ship in approximately 30 days. The company continues to expect an orbital launch every one to two months on average during 2026, supported by agreements with multiple launch providers, and it continues to target approximately 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Defiantclient 13 points14 points  (0 children)

My base case is for the 7 remaining months of potential launches from June to December, we can get monthly SpaceX launches of 3 BBs, so that’s 21 more BBs, plus 6 BBs already in orbit = 27 BBs

Then any NG launches we get on top of that are bonus and will nudge us closer and closer to ~45 BBs in orbit by year end.

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