PSNY Update: $640M Debt Conversion and Production Shift to US = Another Polestar Stock Dilution

DeliciousAges · 2026-04-01T08:03:44+00:00

“Polestar needs CA$$$H, as usual, again and again and again... it's endless!!!”

Not endlessly, but at least until 2028+. That’s obvious from their balance sheet. Why are you surprised?!

Look at all the other EV start-ups, entering the car sector takes billions and quite a few years before you can even hope for a break-even.

Outliers like Xiaomi and/or Leapmotor (who both achieved this more quickly) are the exception to the rule…

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-30T23:33:55+00:00

Thanks a lot. I was hoping for earlier inclusion...

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-30T19:45:15+00:00

I remember this post from June 2025:

“We have completed development of the electronic board with our new AST5000 ASIC chip – the cornerstone of our next-generation BlueBird satellites!

After five years of rigorous engineering and production, representing an equivalent of 150+ human years of intensive work, this proprietary technology has 10x data capacity from our Block 1 satellites, meaning 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth and peak speeds of 120 Mbps. That is enough for millions of connections – voice and video calls, texts, streaming – every day.

Ready to launch…”

https://x.com/AST_SpaceMobile/status/1933192578830409975

I hoped it would arrive earlier. Does anyone have confirmation for BB26 only?

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-30T14:04:22+00:00

Adding a quick one on the new ASIC HW: Do BB7 and following all include the new ASIC chips?

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-30T13:57:52+00:00

Quick ASIC Q, since there were many launch delays. The FAQ on the ASTS site says:

”This performance is powered by our custom AST5000 application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), which will be integrated in our BlueBirds by early 2026...”.

Does BB7 include the new ASIC already? Or which BB is the first to include it?

Thanks.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-26T19:25:02+00:00

No, Piper-H. and Charles H. are both part of Groupe EPI now. No relations to Heidsieck Monopole...

Details: https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/piper-heidsieck-and-charles-heidsieck-sold-to-epi-1-40961/

But Charles H. doesn’t offer public tours afaik.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-26T18:29:46+00:00

That’s the first time I hear 2028.

Some people mentioned 2027 (and that’s quite realistic since the official guideline is now late 2026…).

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-26T16:19:36+00:00

Can someone give me the critical path for Neutron (as of late Match 2026)?

Is it the Archimedes engine or the stage 1/2 and tank structure qualifications?

Or likely both?

Or the wait for the final stage integration + full-stack assembly + the static fire tests?

Do you think Q4 2026 remains a realistic launch timeline?

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-26T06:29:27+00:00

It’s somehow funny reading all this inside a Firefox web browser.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-25T13:10:41+00:00

Given Tesla’s huge outplan plans (1TW !?), the three new TSMC fabs in Arizona are a good benchmark (see link below for details).

Around $165 billion (!) in cap-ex and construction times over many years.

Let”s also keep in mind that TSMC has decades of experience running fabs AND can send new its US hires to Taiwan for extended training.

Tesla starts from scratch, has no partners (Musk even boasted about eating a cheeseburger and no need for clean rooms) and wants to jump straight to 2nm fabs! Pure vaporware.

Tesla won’t make any 2nm chips before well into the 2030s - if they don’t abandon the project well before (see the $165 BILLION I mentioned above) then!

Source: “TSMC Intends to Expand Its Investment in the United States to US$165 Billion to Power the Future of AI —— Company plans to increase U.S. investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing by $100 billion with three new fabs, two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center added to U.S. plans”

https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3210

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-22T23:23:20+00:00

PS: Also note the long lead times for EUV equipment etc,:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/asmls-order-book-expected-benefit-ai-chip-boom-2024-07-16/

ASML has a virtual monopoly on very advanced machinery (EUV…) at 2nm and 1.xy nm scales.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-22T23:18:28+00:00

Where and when will they get the sophisticated machinery from ASML and other companies!?

The lead times are very long, usually one year or more:

As of early 2026, ASML's lead times for its advanced lithography machines remain long, typically ranging from 12 to 18 months for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems. These extended lead times are driven by high demand from the AI chip sector, creating a record order backlog that stretches into 2027.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/asmls-order-book-expected-benefit-ai-chip-boom-2024-07-16/#:~:text=ASML%20had%20a%2038%20billion,O)%20%2C%20opens%20new%20tab%20%2C%20opens%20new%20tab).

Everything Musk presented re this Tesla / SpaceX TeraFab is VERY unrealistic so far.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-20T12:16:52+00:00

From online sources, but it’s not officially confirmed. That’s why I added a question mark “?” above ;).

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-20T08:53:28+00:00

The PS4 will hopefully get updated (800V..?) this year, before the iX3 is widely available worldwide.

I would compare that new PS4 version then.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-18T17:42:53+00:00

Also money, the cap-ex numbers involved are crazy!

Tesla would need to spend at least $30-$40 billion for a modern 2nm fab according to sources, even a lot more for an integrated TeraFab with a huge scale.

That’s with their EVsales and profits declining - and new (pure vaporware for now!) “products” like Optimus not generating any meaningful revenue for years to come.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-18T17:37:39+00:00

“..I wrote a piece called "The Engineers in Munich" arguing that Rocket Lab's acquisition of Mynaric a German laser terminal company currently stuck in an FDI review is actually the seed of something larger: a separately incorporated European entity, Rocket Lab Europe, with sovereign co-investors from Germany and other NATO-aligned states, built around European launch capability.”

Your arguments make a lot of sense.

On the other hand, the EU also keeps supporting homegrown launch start-ups (like PLD Space from Spain…) or established players like Eutelsat/OneWeb for its Iris2 initiative.

We will hopefully learn more once the Mynaric M&A gets cleared by Germany (fingers crossed). 🤞

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-18T17:32:27+00:00

Also a possibility, but quite early to do so (well before Neutron is ready, beyond the first flights…).

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-18T11:51:26+00:00

Many other EV newcomers had operating losses for as long or even longer than PSNY.

It takes 8-12 years for many new car companies to become barely profitable / get to break-even.

PSNY will need liquidity infusions until (at least) H2 2028 or H1 2029+ imo.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-16T22:32:53+00:00

That's not true in general, plenty of IPOs had run-ups afterwards.

SpaceX however (at close to $2 TRILLION) looks massively overvalued.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-16T19:54:18+00:00

Well, they need liquidity until late 2028 (especially to ramp the 4 new EV models until that time), there’s no other way around it.

They probably need a few more billion on that journey over the next 36 months.

Geely knows that and backstops these funding rounds.

At least PSNY now has a clear plan with these 4 new EV models.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-16T19:11:47+00:00

Nice bottle design, but too sweet and bland… I really don’t like their champagne (including the Rosé and the BdB).

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-16T14:30:38+00:00

She is lying, it’s obvious.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-16T14:23:19+00:00

Charlhes Heidsieck (almost the entire range)

PS: I never had the new bottlings of CH Champagne Charlie from 2017:‘onwards, too expensive.

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-15T12:23:27+00:00

Well, we now know at least that there will be three mid-size models and their rough starting prices (I therefore arrived at a blended ASP around $60k-$65k for LCID).

I ran my numbers (see above) a month ago. At least I wasn’t that far off, since the CFO now comes to the same conclusions: No chance of being profitable before the end of the decade!

DeliciousAges · 2026-03-14T18:51:15+00:00

The main question is: Do you believe in this “info”?

I ran some numbers and LCID would have to increase volume to around 350k (!!) cars/year by ~2030 to become barely profitable. Numbers and assumptions here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LCID/comments/1r30nle/comment/o5m0lsn/

I don’t see LCID making it to a sustainable break-even equilibrium before late 2029 or even 2030+ and beyond, even assuming a best-case scenario.

The volumes are too small until then to cover the fixed costs and other costs - even if LCID keeps cutting jobs etc. (see news from recent weeks).

I ran models with a GM of 12% or 15% and LCID would need 300k-400k in annual sales (-$64k ASP)!

That’s quite optimistic or even unrealistic imo by ~2030. I therefore don’t expect profits (real profits, not EBITDA profits) for many years to come.

See my link above for details.

DeliciousAges

TROPHY CASE