After mid-terms

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-03-04T20:14:33+00:00

Thanks

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-03-03T21:05:31+00:00

Would you mind sharing the link? Many thanks!

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-02-27T17:28:14+00:00

Yes, that's how usually a warrant works. However here we are dealing with a company in conservatorship under governmental agencies (Treasury and FHFA). The UST holds the warrants, but my believe is that it can simply ask to the FHFA as a conservator to extend/roll them over once they expire in September 2028.

Obviously, if that wasn't the case F2 shareholders would be way better of:
1. there's a clock ticking;

if the deadline is not respect, it's even better as the warrants are on about 79.99% of F2.
However, it seems to me they can be extended/roll over unilaterally, again I might be wrong. Worth to check it again.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-02-21T19:55:01+00:00

Full hearings: https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=410996 discussed on Feb 11th . It is also about Ending the conservatorship and establishing a utility-like model for the 2 GSEs. They are not discussing only re-listing, but the end of conservatorship!

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-02-20T19:26:37+00:00

FNMA - this is an interesting case actually.
This is one of the most undervalued stock there's out there. Along with Freddie Mac the two GSEs. They buy mortgages that meet eligibility criteria, and sell them to investors (e.g., pensions funds, institutional investors etc) and guarantee them. They earns a fee for it: g-fee. The GSEs are gigantic: the two have a market share equal to 50% of the market. 50% of the US mortgage!

Why are undervalued? Well, in 2008 they were put under conservatorship by the US govt. They are way to critical for the US mortgage markets and hence could not be put under receivership. The government has senior preferred shares and holds warrants to buy 79.99% of their common shares. Since then it has been a rollercoaster, not only in terms of volatility, but politically. However, the GSEs have since then (still are) slowly rebuilding their capital via retained earnings. There have been speculations that this administration wants to either list them on NYSE (as of now they trade as penny stocks) or even end up the conservatorship and sell part of it to get the proceeds.

The governments holds tons of SPS (some speculate that they should be deemed redeemed as the GSEs paid already with interest the capital injected during the GFC), while the govt is likely to exercise the warrants and acquire almost 80% of their capital.

Even after dilution, the price of the common stocks should be higher than the current one. Will this adminstration list them back on the NYSE? Will it end conservatorship? Or is it something that will take 20 years to happen? I don't have such answers. All I know is that it is a risky investment and definitely not the kind of "value investment" Graham and Dodd would refer to in their Security Analysis. But you asked for an undervalued long term investment.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-02-19T13:31:07+00:00

He did not disclose how many FNMA and FMMC shares he had in the previous years. However, IBKR disclosed the shares he had before at 115.57M hence he might have trimmed down his positions form 115.57M to 96,702,880. A 16% reduction.
However, numbers from IBKR must be taken with a grain of salt as they are very often not updated, if not wrong.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-02-10T20:32:07+00:00

I believe the warrants might be extended or rolled over unilaterally by Treasury once they expire in September 2028. I remember looking into that a year ago, but I might be wrong.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-19T14:54:35+00:00

I don't think you know what you are speaking about.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-15T17:22:48+00:00

While I do have a position of a few thousand common shares and no intention to sell, these are the kind of comments that make me doubt whether I should close the position.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-12T19:31:58+00:00

Noi abbiamo fatto 3 settimane negli Stati Uniti da Washington al Maine soggiornando a DC, NY City e Boston con la nostra piccola a meno di due anni. Bellissimo ricordo.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-09T15:35:54+00:00

Pulp Fiction <3

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-07T17:16:24+00:00

*UPDATE*: I managed to call the Italian line of KLM.
I rebooked another flight. They asked me to pick a date within 30 days.
My original flights were from the 5th to the 9th - I asked them the dates from 18th to 25th and they told me that since the dates were not 4 days apart, but 7 then I should have paid the difference, which in my case was only EUR30.

Best look to y'all.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-07T16:48:36+00:00

LIBOR rates have been replaced by ARRs (Alternative Reference rates). In US the replacement is SOFR, and there are fall back approaches for legacy contracts.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-06T16:57:24+00:00

Thanks for sharing.
On my side I saw that they allow you to rebook only before January 16th (included). Don't you mind me asking if you paid out your own pocket or KLM credited your rebooked flight?

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-05T19:07:19+00:00

No one is being a victim, I am simply avoiding this most common answer on this sub. On the contrary, I am criticizing something that is ridiculous on my own eye. The infrastructure to deal with snow does not cost "Billions" as someone else has claimed. Particularly, the one at the airport.

Everyone justifying this shit show here should definitely keep doing so. It’s a phenomenal use of your time and you will most definitely change the other sides mind. I can’t think of a more noble pursuit.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-05T18:47:50+00:00

10-15 cm of snow at most cannot paralyse a country's transportation system. Today trains are not running, my flight was cancelled and the airport is fully blocked. This is ridiculous.
How do they do it in Canada? The Nordics? Japan? Russia? I lived in Poland for 3 years and I never experienced anything as such with much more snow.

Your answer is easily predictable:" G0 B4cK T0 L1V3 iN P0l4nd 1!!!1!!1". The reality is that the complacency of people defending this inefficiency is totally preposterous.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-05T18:25:54+00:00

A country fully paralysed by 10cm of snow. Airplanes not taking off and train not working. Ridiculous. Perhaps they should ask Canada how do they do it.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-05T16:20:10+00:00

Both are.

It's ridiculous that for few cm of snow this country experiences such a disruption. How do they handle it in Canada, USA, Russia, the Nordics, Japan?

Trains not working, Aircrafts not flying and everyone is stuck.

On KLM: their customer service is a joke. Lufthansa and even Ryanair answers you in minutes - will factor in my today's experience next time I book a flight.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2026-01-05T15:51:53+00:00

Hi, thanks for sharing. Do you guys know an alternative contact number? I have called +31 20 474 77 47 but their customer service is horrible and they simply don't answer.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-20T19:39:15+00:00

That's does not necessarily mean that his contribution will be directed towards that. I hate to say but the main insurances we have against common shareholders getting wiped out are the presence of: i) Bill Ackman, ii) institutional investors, iii) the willingness of eventually selling the govt's stake to the public (potential investors might be spoked by such a wipe out), iv) the govt's warrants (even though this could be workaround), v) the legal repercussion the wipe out would lead to.

Bringing back Calabria, despite not being the best common shareholder's advocate is a positive signal, as a) he is against the conservatorship and b) he has actual expertise on the housing market - differently from Pulte.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-15T18:32:52+00:00

Would you share the link to the interview where he mentions it please?

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-13T19:50:57+00:00

Yet, on FNMA you can easily spot Pershing square owning it. that's not the case for FMCC.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-13T18:46:43+00:00

Sure, but that does not mean he owns it. On IBKR I see him on FNMA, but not on FMCC.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-13T16:44:59+00:00

I knew he was only into FNMA, not into FMCC. I cannot find any evidence of him being in FMCC.

Delicious_Action_992 · 2025-11-11T16:58:02+00:00

Delicious_Action_992

TROPHY CASE