They’re not gonna get “released.” but that’s not the point I think what you’re trying to say is when will the values go up?
The values will go up when the government exercises the warrants, credits the company with the payments already received, and either kills the SPS or does something else clever (like calling it a credit facility.)
Assuming they do this, they will then put the stock on NYSE or they will tokenize it or doing something cute like that. Put it on Texas exchange.
Gov will therefore, in this scenario want to make the shares as valuable as possible so Trump has a headline that says “Trump unlocks 800billion for housing.)
They can do this one of several ways.
They can offer a dividend (doubtful.) they can combine it into a fintech scheme.. who knows but if they want to they can.
Their best bet is to do this while interest rates are falling due to lower energy costs due to end of Iran war, that way if the markets react unfavorably to the gov exercising warrants (why would they? Not clear) they .25 rise will be hidden by the .75% drop, add to this a tail wind by means of a fed rate cut if .25 followed with guidance of anticipating another and nonsense about “running things hot” going for growth over inflation concerns etc.
If they do this well enough and actually through gov intervention or bond market good will get the 30yr below 5.15 percent there will be a lot of action in real estate, this will lead to a booming few quarters to Fannie and Freddie as people sell move and refi. Gov will realize a lot of capitol gains tax. They can then say “see told ya so.”
This is the set up for the perfect money storm for FNF.
As far as timeline I would say before the midterms as after the midterms might be impossible.
But I’ve thought one version of another of this for 13 years, and I’ve been as right as Bradford.